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Sa finance.yahoo.com : Dow Drops 416 on Global Market Plunge AP - Stocks had their worst day of trading since the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks Tuesday, briefly hurtling the Dow Jones industrials down more than 500 points on a worldwide tide of concern that the U.S. and Chinese economies are stumbling and that share prices have become overinflated. Ono što je karakteriziralo danasnju trgovinu na skoro svim tržištima je RASPRODAJA!!! Nakon što je Kina pala skoro 9% val rasprodaje je zahvatio zapadnoevropska tržišta i na mnogim manjim tržištima nije bilo niti jedne dionice koja je bila u plusu! VIX index je skočio u jednom danu sa otprilike 11 (trgovao se mjesecima između 10 i 12) na nevjerojatnih 19 pointa! Nije neobično da VIX bude i iznad toga, ali ovakav veliki skok u samo jednom danu je vrlo rijedak! |
Definicija ovog contrarian indikatora: Bull/Bear ratio Isto kao i ostali indikatori, na ekstremnim očitanjima upozoravaju na market top ili bottom. Ako netko zna za besplatni link gdje se može vidjeti ovaj graf i pratiti sadašnje stanje, bio bih zahvalan da ga posta. Nadam se da ću onda biti u stanju redovito pratiti ove indikatore i postati barem jednom mjesečno na svoj blog, kako bih pratio stanje na tržištu u konbinaciji sa ekonomskim podacima i pokušao odrediti trendove. Svjesnost u kakvom marketu se nalazimo, ključna je za uspjeh ulagača u dionice, a vjerojatno i za tradere, iako se ovdje radi o vrlo kratkom izlaganju dionicama. |
Hvala Contresu na slikama! Prepoznavanjem ciklusa, moguće je ulagati u dionice onih sektora koji povijesno uspjevaju u takvim ciklusima. Naravno, ulaganje treba prepoznati i ostvariti prije ili na početku samog ciklusa.ž Postoje i fondovi koji su vezani za pojedine sektore, pa je moguće ulagati i na taj način. Evo i linka na emocionalne cikluse ulagača na tržište dionica: Emocionalni ciklusi Global Business Cycle, showing economic confidence & activity Fear/Calm Index Evo i linka koji sam našao a uključuje gornji graf: Forecast Molim komentare i mišljenje gdje se sada nalazimo u ekonomskom ciklusu! |
Zahvala Contressu! Bit će zanimljivo proučiti ovaj sistem. Što se tiče contrarian indikatora, mislim da ću uskoro trebati napisati nešto o tome da ne izazove nedoumice kod onih koji se prvi puta susreću sa time, a i sistematizirati one za koje znam i koje pronađem da su dostupni na besplatnim servisima. Evo par linkova: Amateur investors - web stranica se zasniva na sada već možda i previše poznatoj i raširenoj CAN SLIM metodi. Izgleda da im se jedna sličica ne učitava? VIX - investopedia |
Chart za $CPC - Put to call ratio Stockcharts link za put to call ratio Kako čitati gornji chart? Za put & call ratio gledati ispeglanu plavu krivulju, koja predstavlja eksponencijalni moving average. Kod niskih apsolutnih vrijednosti, može se predpostaviti da je odnos puteva manji nego povijesni prosjek, pa tako i da je tržište dosta optimistično. Na ektremnim vrijednostima bilo pesimizma ili optimizma, velika je vjerojatnost zaokreta trenda! Evo objašnjenja na INVESTOPEDIJI. Tamo koriste 4-week moving average, dok ja koristim 3-week - nešto "brži" tj. 21-day moving average, koji dosta rastrzanu krivulju "ispegla", tako da bude čitljiva. Put & call ratio za sada ne pokazuje ekstremno optimistično raspoloženje, koje bi karakteriziralo vrhunac tržišta! U svakom slučaju treba koristiti i konbinirati što više ovakvih pokazatelja, a moj cilj ih je pronaći na besplatim servisima i pratiti. Pretplatom na neke servise naučio sam koji su to pokazatelji, a najčešće korišteni je volatility index - VIX, koji već dugo vremena pokazuje vrlo niska očitanja, kao što i piše u komentaru Sy Hardinga, a i mnogi analitičari na CNBC-u kažu isto. Nitko ne može znati kuda će market krenuti, ali zato može reći kao najbolji "educated guess" koja je najveća vjerojatnos da se desi porast ili pad. U konbinaciji sa fundamentalnim pokazateljima, onda se može doći do nekih zaključaka. |
Upozorenje uz kratki isječak iz besplatnog komentara Sy Hardinga: : WHAT IF NORMAL VOLATILITY RETURNS? Feb. 16, 2007. There’s been a lot of talk about the lack of volatility in the current market, and how that has led to investors becoming increasingly confident and unworried. Well, why not? What’s to worry about in a bull market that began in 2002, and in almost five years still hasn’t had even a normal 10% correction, something that historically happens on average of every 1.4 years, whether in a bull or bear market. It happened even in the rip-roaring seemingly one-direction 1990s bull market. Historically the market has had a 15% decline on average of every 2.2 years, and a decline of more than 20% (a bear market) on average of every 3.8 years. |
Dakle, ogroman skok jučer, a danas nastavila rast uz downgrade jedne analitičarske kuće. Ja bih rekao da je kandidat za put opcije ili za shorting, ali to bi rekao i jučer, a samo je nastavila rast! Na maloj sličici se vidi porast u zadnja 2 dana (prvi dan preko 100%). NEW YORK, February 13 (newratings.com) - Analysts at Friedman Billings downgrade Onyx Pharmaceuticals Inc (ONXX.NAS) from "market perform" to "underperform." The target price has been raised from $12 to $17. Zanimljivo, završila je na oko $26 danas. Inače, razlog skoka je objava uspješnosti jednog lijeka i totalno je bilo nepredvidljivo, nisu u pitanju objave earnings-a. |
U pozadini je bilo nekoliko interesantnih događaja od kojih izdvajam one koje bi bile interesantni straddle play: Nasdaq - NDAQ Priceline - PCLN Onyx- ONXX Od tih dionica na mojoj watch listi je bio samo Priceline prije objave rezultata, jer sam čuo za njega još prije 2000-te godine, za vrijeme internet bubble-a. Zanimljiva dionica sa puno naglih promjena smijerova u prošlosti. |
Danas su indexi krenuli gore, inspirirani vjestima o mogućem preuzimanju Dow komponente Alcoe. Alcoa Inc. is being targeted by two foreign mining giants who are each preparing $40 billion takeover bids for the aluminum producer, a British newspaper reported. Alcoa shares rose nearly 6 percent Tuesday although some analysts questioned whether such a deal was likely. |
Zamjetan je pad financijskih dionica u zadnjih par dana. Loši krediti (bad loans) su povukli HSBC, a danas je Mastercard izašao sa odličnim rezultatima, ali lošim predviđanjima za budućnost: MasterCard, one of the world's largest credit card brands, fell after hitting a new 52-week high of $118.07 Friday. The company's fourth-quarter profit topped Wall Street expectations as strong consumer spending boosted transactions, but warned 2007 margins might come in weaker than last year. The stock was down $11.14, or 9.7 percent, at $103.60. Dakle, pad je skoro 10%. To bi bio odličan play za straddle, ali lako je biti pametan NAKON objave. |
Opcije koje sam kupio prije par dana su se vratile na inicijalnu cijenu koliko sam ih i platio nakon poniranja do 20% jučer u minus! Kakva razlika u samo jednom danu! Na tjednoj razini, sa druge strane, je prilično neutralan. Nije napravio ništa! Da li će tržište ući u deveti mjesec rally-ja (što se do sada nije nikada desilo) ili će se korigirati već ovaj mjesec? Ostaje samo tri tjedna da to saznamo! |
Vijest koja je potaknula pad u stvari potječe od jedne dionice, što je neobičan događaj: Micron Technology Micron Technology Inc (MU) 12.56 -0.34 -2.64% NYSE Forecast that prices for memory chips used in consumer electronics would be down 30% to 40% this quarter from the previous one. The news helped send technology shares lower on Friday afternoon. Mike Sadler, the company's head of sales, said the falling prices come after Micron boosted production of so-called NAND memory chips and amid an industry glut. Micron is the largest U.S. maker of computer memory chips. He did not detail the potential impact on the company's earnings and said he did not see any signs of emerging demand for the chips which store information on devices such as digital cameras and music players. |
Jučerašnji dan je oblilježila dionica Cisco Sistems-a, koja je nakon objave odličnih rezultata digla NASDAQ, što je rezultiralo na ukupnom trenutnom gubitku na mojim opcijama za otprilike 30%. DOW i S&P 500 su ostali skoro nepromijenjeni. Ostajem u poziciji do daljnjega, budući da i dalje očekujem korekciju. Da li će danas objava odličnih i iznenađujućih rezultata za Disney biti dovoljan katalizator za daljnji porast tržišta? CNBC: Walt Disney Walt Disney Co (DIS) 35.48 UNCH 0% NYSE DIS 35.48 --- UNCH (0%) said that first-quarter earnings more than doubled from a year ago, driven by DVD sales of "Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest" and "Cars," and helped by the sale of investments including an E! Entertainment stake. Shares of Disney rose as much as 2.5% in after-hours trading Wednesday. |
Prenosim besplatni komentar sa stranice Amateur investor The Dow and S&P 500 made new 52 week highs this week while the Nasdaq lagged behind and is still below its 52 week high. Meanwhile the S&P 500 has had a positive gain for 8 consecutive months in a row which is a rare occurrence. The table below shows all of the periods since 1960 that the S&P 500 closed with a positive gain for 6 consecutive months or more along with the return during that period and the drop that occurred the next month after the consecutive month streak ended. As you can see there has only been 6 times since 1960 that the S&P 500 has had a positive gain for 8 months or more. In fact the only time the S&P 500 had 9 consecutive months in a row with a positive gain was from August of 1982 through April of 1983. As mentioned above currently the S&P 500 has had a positive gain for the last 8 months which began in June and as my research shows the odds of seeing the S&P 500 ending with a positive gain 9 months in a row isn't very high so we shall see if the month of February will end the month with a negative return. Consecutive Time Total % Drop Maximum + Months Period % Gain Next Month Drop 7 11/60-5/61 22.5% -2.9% -3.1% 8 12/63-7/64 12.9% -1.6% -2.2% 6 12/71-5/72 15.7% -2.2% -2.5% 6 1/75-6/75 34.1% -6.8% -7.3% 8 4/80-11/80 32.9% -3.4% -10.8% 9 8/82-4/83 44.5% -1.2% -2.9% 6 10/85-3/86 27.9% -1.4% -5.3% 7 11/90-5/91 25.5% -4.8% -5.6% 7 9/92-3/93 8.8% -2.5% -4.3% 8 12/94-7/95 21.7% 0.0% -1.6% 8 11/95-6/96 14.5% -4.6% -9.5% 6 11/97-4/98 20.0% -1.9% -3.4% 6 3/03-8/03 18.6% -1.2% -1.8% 8 6/06-1/07 13.2% ? NA |
Jedan od starih lisaca, koji je predvidio zadnji bear market od 2000-2002 komentira sadasnje stanje na trzistima i u ekonomiji: BESPLATNI KOMENTAR SA NJEGOVE STRANICE: http://www.syharding.com/comm3.html SOFT LANDING FOR ECONOMY? Feb. 2, 2007. On Thursday just over a week ago, the Dow lost 112 points, the market closed down for the week, after being flat the previous week. And investor sentiment was suddenly not so optimistic. The poll of its members by the American Association of Individual Investors, which had showed 57.6% to be bullish the previous week, a very high number for this poll, suddenly plunged to just 39.5% bullish. The thought was even widespread on financial TV shows that perhaps the long overdue 10% market correction was finally upon us. What a difference a few days make. This week the Fed pushed the clouds away. Talk of ‘Goldilocks’ economic conditions (neither too hot nor too cold), and a soft landing for the economy, became the consensus. The week got off to a slow start, with the market flat to down Monday and Tuesday. On Wednesday morning came the surprising report that the economy grew at a 3.5% pace in the December quarter. That was up from just 2.0% growth the previous quarter, and considerably stronger than the estimates of a further decline to perhaps 1.5%. Yet even that news could not move the market, which was down for the day on Wednesday until exactly 2:15 p.m. At that moment the Fed ended its January FOMC meeting with the expected announcement that it was leaving interest rates alone. Yawn. Everyone expected that. But the Fed changed a few words in its announcement of that decision. It said it sees “somewhat firmer economic growth”, whereas in December it said “recent indicators have been mixed”. The other change in its wording was related to inflation. This time it said “readings on core inflation have improved modestly in recent months” which replaced its December phrase “readings on inflation seem elevated”. The market immediately reacted on hearing the better economic news from the Fed rather than from individual reports. The Dow reversed to the upside and closed up 98 points for the day, and gained another 52 points on Thursday, which put it at a new high by a fraction. On Friday morning came the monthly jobs numbers report, the first important look at how the economy was faring in January. And it was also a surprise. The consensus estimate was that 170,000 new jobs were probably created in December. But the report was that the actual number was only 110,000. However, the jobs numbers previously reported for October through December were revised upward by 104,000. Adding to the confusion, or at least to the opportunity to interpret the week’s numbers either way, were reports that residential construction declined at a 19.2% annualized rate in the December quarter, while automobile production plunged at an annualized rate of 31.7%. Since home construction and auto sales are two important components of the consumer spending that drives the economy, that had some economists expressing suspicion of the report that the economy grew 3.5% in the quarter. Merrill Lynch North American economist David Rosenberg warned that the picture isn’t quite as benign (improved growth and low inflation), as the market’s initial reaction to the Fed’s statement indicates. He claims the drop in oil prices in the December quarter, which contributed to a decline in the U.S. trade deficit, added 1.6% to the fourth quarter GDP number. Without that drop in oil prices, fourth quarter GDP growth would have only been 1.9%, which is more in line with previous forecasts of a still slowing economy. Rosenberg also says that the lower energy costs in the December quarter helped consumer spending jump 4.4% in that quarter, but warns that so far this quarter oil prices are back to the upside. And winter has finally arrived in the U.S. , so the upside reversal in natural gas prices has been even more dramatic than the increase in oil prices. Rosenberg also notes that the biggest surge in government defense spending since the invasion of Iraq in 2003 took place in the December quarter, and added 0.7% to the reported GDP growth of 3.5%. He believes that aberration, and the end of the decline in oil prices, will result in a return to sickly GDP numbers going forward. And perhaps that is what the market began to think about, as it had little follow through on Friday. But yet, the S&P 500 was up three out of five days this week, and the Dow managed another fractional new high on Thursday before giving some of it back on Friday. |