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MarketSci blogger piše: The indicator RSI(2) has been garnering a lot of attention from the blogosphere. A number of fellow bloggers (Woodshedder, IBDIndex, Bill Rempel and Dogwood come to mind) have been doing all sorts of nifty stuff with it and I recommend that TA-oriented folks get plugged into that discussion. In this report I’m going to test the indicator in its simplest form and look at how its performance has evolved over time (and why trading it as a static strategy might be a dangerous approach). I’ve read a lot of different interpretations of RSI(2), but in its simplest form, traders go long when the RSI is very low (i.e. oversold) and short when it’s very high (i.e. overbought). In the graph below I’ve assumed a trader went long the S&P 500 at today’s close whenever the RSI closed below 10 and short whenever it closed above 90, from 2000 (frictionless with no return on cash). |
Sa Vix and more The Arms Index or TRIN is an indicator that I watch closely for short to intermediate-term setups. The indicator which combines ratios of advancing issues to declining issues and advancing volume to declining volume is a reasonably reliable contrary signal. Since mid-October the Arms Index has been generating a number of historically high signals. In the chart below, I used a 10 day exponential moving average as a smoothing factor. Note that the TRIN’s 10 day EMA appears to have climaxed yesterday in the manner that has historically provided excellent buying opportunities. To my ears, yesterday’s climax in the TRIN is suggesting that the November 21st bottom is likely to hold. Shorts beware… TRIN na stockcharts - treba uzeti 10-dnevni prosjek |