Trgovina dionicama i opcijama

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Opis bloga
15-dnevni chartovi:

qqqq - Nasdaq 100 ETF

FREE Swing Day Trading Stock Charts from www.mrswing.com - qqqq

VIX - CBOE Volatility index

FREE Swing Day Trading Stock Charts from www.mrswing.com - vix


Ovaj blog je moj osobni osvrt na pojedine dionice, opcije i kretanja u ekonomiji općenito i kako ona utječu na tržišta kapitala.
Služi mi prvenstveno za komunikaciju sa drugim bloggerima istog interesa, komunikaciju sa prijateljima koji nemaju blog i kao moja evidencija.
Nadam se da ću sa vremenom imati dovoljno iskustva da ima i edukativnu svrhu za druge posjetitelje.

Blog ne sadrži preporuke za kupnju dionica i opcija i svaki ulagač se treba posavjetovati sa svojim financijskim savjetnikom i ulagati na svoju odgovornost!

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20.02.2008., srijeda

Još jedan indikator pokazuje dno

Postotak Nasdaq dionica iznad 200 dnevnog prosjeka je na ekstremno niskim razinama, još neviđenim od 2000-2002 bear maketa:

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a) the initial collapse from March 2,000; b) The 9/11 sell off; and c) the sell off following that 9/11 selloff/bounce.

Sami možete ovaj indikator dobiti i na stockcharts upisom $NAA200R, samo što besplatno ide samo 3 godine u nazad.

Značenje ovog contrarian indikatora je, naravno, da bi mogli imati snažan rally, koji će potrajati barem mjesec dana. Ako smo u bear marketu, nagađam da neće trajati puno dulje od toga, ako se povijest ponavlja.

Danas situacija nije blistava, indexi su u minusu, vidjet ćemo što nam donosi budućnost, ali definitivno svoje long pozicije treba držati na kratkoj špagi!
- 17:16 - Komentari (1) - Isprintaj - #

Investors intelligence

Sa ekstremnim pesimizmom investitora, možda su se stekli uvjeti za novi rally:

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Slijedeći dani će pokazati hoćemo li ići na novi retest, ali razina pesimizma ukazuje na to da je zaista moguć rally.
- 11:24 - Komentari (0) - Isprintaj - #

15.02.2008., petak

Pinning the strike

Pinning the Strike

What does it Mean? The tendency of a stock's price to close near the strike price of heavily traded options (in the same stock) as the expiration date nears.

Investopedia Says... This doesn't always happen, but it often does when there is significant open interest. For example, if a stock is trading near $50 and there is heavy trading in both puts and calls at this strike price, there is a tendency for the stock price to be "pinned" at $50 as traders unwind their positions at expiration.


Danas je ekspiracijski dan i trejderi su na odmoru, a neki i dan ranije. Mnogi uopće ne trguju na ovaj dan, kao i na dan objave FED-a.
U ponedjeljak je praznik u US.

- 15:53 - Komentari (0) - Isprintaj - #

Bulkowski's Trading Tips

Korisni tipovi za tradere:

* Tighten stops. If other stocks in the same industry begin trending down, then tighten the stop in the stock you own in that industry. If your stock shoots up several points in a few days, then tighten the stop because price may reverse and retrace much of the gain.

* Trade with the trend. If the market and industry are moving up, select stocks with upward breakouts. Avoid countertrend trades - the market or the industry is going down and your stock is moving up. The rise will be less than you expect unless the market or industry reverses. If you buy a stock even though the market is trending lower, that's fine providing you expect the market to reverse shortly. Just hope that you don't get stopped out while waiting.

* Trade on the intraday scale. Switch to the intraday scale or the next shorter period to place the trade. The shorter time scale will zoom into the price action and highlight support and resistance zones. I use the one- and five-minute scales to time my entry.

* Raise that stop as price rises. Check the volatility and place the stop no closer than 1.5 times the current price volatility.

* Never lower a stop. If you feel a desire to lower a stop, sell the stock. Fall in love, just never with a stock.

* Follow the same stocks each day. Become familiar with them. Don't invest in unfamiliar stocks. Over time, you'll know when the stock is expensive and when it's cheap. That voice will tell you when to buy and sell.

* Trading takes work. You have to believe the system you trade or you'll ignore the signals. Explore new techniques that add value to your system and prune the deadwood as it becomes less effective.

* Check commodities. I follow oil, copper, and natural gas because so many of the industries I track rely on them. If the price of oil is shooting up, the airlines, truckers, and chemicals may suffer but oil service companies, refiners, and drillers should prosper.

* Tune your system. The markets change over time and so should your system and your trading style. When the markets are choppy, directionless, I make short-term trades. When the market is trending, I relax and my hold time increases.

* Ignore chat room chatter. Some of the worst trades I've made come from scenario trading. I'd read that the price of oil was predicted to rise because of a production shortage. Then I'd buy a refiner and get cleaned out when the price of oil dropped instead. Don't restrict this advice to the Internet chat room. Apply it to newspaper articles and television news as well. Don't trade scenarios. Buy-and-hold investors may do well with scenarios, but they can wait years.

* If you have to ask, you're making a mistake. If you have doubts about a trade, such that you feel compelled to ask someone's opinion about it, then skip the trade. Don't let others spend your money.

* Set price targets. With experience, you'll be able to tell when price is about to turn. Use the measure rule for the chart pattern (usually the pattern's height added to the breakout price) to predict a price target. For more conservative targets, use half the formation height projected upward. If the target and overhead resistance are nearly the same, then you've struck gold. Place a sell order to dump the stock just below the resistance zone. You may be early, but you never go broke taking a profit.

* Watch for a throwback or pullback. Prices turn postbreakout in an average of 3 days and return to the breakout usually in 10 or 11 days, so watch for that. Have faith that prices will resume the original breakout direction-they do-86% of the time.

* Don't short a stock. If you can't make money on the long side, you won't make it on the short side either. Try it on paper first.

* Prices drop faster than they rise. I found this out when I reviewed the statistics measuring the time from the breakout to the ultimate high or low. Price trends after downward breakouts were quicker and steeper than their upward counterparts. This emphasizes the need to use stops to get out. If you can't sell, your losses will grow quickly.

* Price reverses one month after the breakout in a bear market. This is also true in a bull market, but less often. The one-month benchmark also varies from pattern to pattern. It's rarely shorter, but often longer-five to seven weeks after the breakout. I found a slight rise in the number of patterns reaching the ultimate low a month after the breakout, so don't expect price to turn on a dime every time.

* Price moves most in the first week after a breakout. I discovered this when looking at failure rates. This emphasizes the need to get in early after a breakout. The best way is to have a buy order positioned a penny above the breakout price. That will get you in early and you won't have to worry as much about throwbacks taking you out.
- 10:13 - Komentari (0) - Isprintaj - #

05.02.2008., utorak

Recesija!

Service Sector Contracts Unexpectedly in January
Topics:Consumers | Economy (Global) | Economy (U.S.)
By Reuters | 05 Feb 2008 | 09:07 AM ET

The U.S. services sector retreated sharply in January, according to the Institute for Supply Management.

The industry group said on Tuesday its index of non-manufacturing plunged to 41.9 from 54.4 in December. Wall Street analysts had been looking for a much more moderate decrease to 53.0.

"The ISM non manufacturing index tells us that the recession has indeed arrived," Jane Caron, chief economic strategist at Dwight Asset Management in Burlington, Vermont, told Reuters. "For the Fed, it justifies their aggressive action and I think that low Treasury yields in the market are probably justified."


Nakon ove objave, futuresi su naglo pali, a evropski indexi zaronili više od 2%
Sve je više dokaza za recesiju (jobs od petka), a FED agresivno reže kamatne stope. Kažu da je to samo djelomično zbog recesije i da je glavni "concern" kreditna kriza!
Vidjet ćemo hoće li to biti početak novog "lega" prema dolje ili samo privremeni disturbance.

- 15:23 - Komentari (0) - Isprintaj - #

01.02.2008., petak

I konačno... MSFT kupuje YHOO!!! Katalizator za daljnji rally?

Ovu vjest izdvajam na blog, jer je toliko puta spominjana od Najariana kao spekulacija.
60-tak % premija u odnosu na tržišnu vrijednost!!!

Microsoft makes $45B offer for Yahoo
Software giant makes cash and stock bid of $31 a share, a 62% premium from Thursday's closing price.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Microsoft made an unsolicited $44.6 billion cash and stock bid for Internet portal Yahoo Friday.

The deal would pay Yahoo shareholders $31 a share, which represents a 62% premium from Thursday's closing price.

Microsoft's statement said the offer allows Yahoo (YHOO, Fortune 500) shareholders to elect to receive cash or a fixed number of shares of Microsoft (MSFT, Fortune 500) common stock, with the software giant's offer consisting of one-half cash and one-half Microsoft common stock.

Both Microsoft and Yahoo have fallen far behind rival Google (GOOG, Fortune 500) in the lucrative field of Internet search. Yahoo shares have lost about 30% of their value in the last 12 months, while Google shares gained ground


Update:

U međuvremenu su se futuresi ispuhali. Zanimljivo da oni koji prate tehničku analizu tvrde da smo u trading range-u i da je ovo otprilike vrh - za sada.

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- 13:16 - Komentari (0) - Isprintaj - #

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