Trgovina dionicama i opcijama

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Opis bloga

15-dnevni chartovi:

qqqq - Nasdaq 100 ETF

FREE Swing Day Trading Stock Charts from www.mrswing.com - qqqq

VIX - CBOE Volatility index

FREE Swing Day Trading Stock Charts from www.mrswing.com - vix

Ovaj blog je moj osobni osvrt na pojedine dionice, opcije i kretanja u ekonomiji općenito i kako ona utječu na tržišta kapitala.
Služi mi prvenstveno za komunikaciju sa drugim bloggerima istog interesa, komunikaciju sa prijateljima koji nemaju blog i kao moja evidencija.
Nadam se da ću sa vremenom imati dovoljno iskustva da ima i edukativnu svrhu za druge posjetitelje.

Blog ne sadrži preporuke za kupnju dionica i opcija i svaki ulagač se treba posavjetovati sa svojim financijskim savjetnikom i ulagati na svoju odgovornost!

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23.01.2008., srijeda

VIX opalio preko 36 !

Samo kratki update na situaciju.
Ovo je možda bio privremeni bottom.
Danas Kina u 10,5% plusu!!!

Možda ćemo sada imati prvi bear market rally.
Inače je NASDAQ i oficijelno u bear market teritoriju: -20%

ALI:

APPL je izašao sa lošim izvještajem (-12% after market).

And the company’s conservative projections for the next three months seems to have spooked investors attuned for signs of a coming recession. Apple’s shares, having closed at 155.64, down 3.5% for the day, plunged more than 12% in after-hours trading. At one point the stock hit 136.75, a four-month low.
....
Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster confessed that in his five years of covering Apple he’s never seen anything like the market’s reaction to these earnings. “I talked to one of our technical analysts before the call and he told me that the stock was going down to 130 no matter what results Apple posted,” Munster said in a phone interview. “Something bigger is going on in people’s minds. There’s a feeling that stocks need to go back to their 200 day averages as the market corrects itself. This is not a bullish sign for other tech stocks going forward.”

To bi mogao biti problem za tržišta danas.

- 09:37 - Komentari (0) - Isprintaj - #

21.01.2008., ponedjeljak

Euro Markets Plummet, DAX Falls 7%

Danas je Martin Luther day u USA, ali vrijedno je zabilježiti zbivanja na svjetskim burzama. To je posebno važan događaj, pa ga stavljam na blog, jer su padovi izuzetno veliki:

"(Global stocks) are officially in a bear market," Craig Howard Russell, chief market strategist, China from Saxo Bank told "Worldwide Exchange."

Technically, a bear market is defined as a drop of 20 percent off the indexes recent high. In morning trading, the Paris CAC-40 was off 21 percent from its recent highs, with London's FTSE-100 off more than 15 percent and the DAX down more than 13 percents.

"Getting pummelled," said Henk Potts, equity strategist at Barclays Stockbrokers, of the global selloff. "A mixture of weak global economic data, poor corporate data, increasing fears about the possibility of a recession ... have left investors drowning in a sea of red."

Kakav će biti rezultat na USA tržište sutra, ostaje da vidimo, a i da li će i koliko to utjecati na indikatore rasprodanosti.
I bear marketi imaju svoje rally-je.

- 13:27 - Komentari (0) - Isprintaj - #

15.01.2008., utorak

Ostali Contrarian indikatori još nisu na ekstremnim očitanjima

Evo kako izgledaju vix i put&call ratio (21 dnevni prosjek):

Za pravo dno, VIX bi trebao napraviti spike iznad 30, a ako smo u bear marketu i koliki su problemi za financijske institucije i još daleko više.
Put to call ratio 21 dnevni prosjek se više približavao 1,15 vrijednosti ili preko nje u zadnjim korekcijama, pri samom dnu.
Sve to ne mora biti upravo tako, naravno. Može se desiti i u bear marketu da imamo snažan rally i na sve treba biti spreman, ali isto tako svjestan da nema karaktreristika paničnog dna, takozvane Capitulation u dionicama!

U međuvremenu, kratkoročno gledano, indikatori tipa Stohactics i McClellan Oscillator više nisu na oversold nivoima, što znači da ulazak u short poziciju i nije više nešto što je suludo napraviti:

- 11:16 - Komentari (0) - Isprintaj - #

Ekstremni pesimizam - dodatak

Dodao bih da ostali contrarian indikatori ne ukazuju na pravo dno marketa, pa samo ekstremno bearish AAII treba uzeti sa oprezom!

- 11:15 - Komentari (0) - Isprintaj - #

Ekstremni pesimizam

Već neko vrijeme se govori o ekstremnom pesimizmu ulagača, koji je zabilježen u zadnjih 10-tak dana, a obično karakterizira dna marketa:

The percentage of bulls dropped to 19.6% this week, from 25.7% last week. The percentage of bears rose to a whopping 58.9%, from 55.2% last week.

This level of bears has not been seen since October 1990, after Iraq invaded Kuwait and the US was gearing up for 'Desert Strom'.

AAII members are:
(as of 1/9/2008)
Bullish: 19.63%
Neutral: 21.50%
Bearish: 58.88%

- 11:14 - Komentari (0) - Isprintaj - #

09.01.2008., srijeda

Dennis Gartman - we are in a real bear market

Dennis Gartman author of The Gartman Letter joined the “Fast Money” crew to discuss his take the commodities markets. Gartman thinks it’s a little late to put a position on in gold. He disclosed that he sold a little bit of gold on Tuesday late in the day off the panic in the markets. Gartman also mentioned that he covered some short positions as the panic broke out in the stock market. He still thinks we’re in a real bear market with a lot farther to go on the downside. Gartman disclosed that he is still long some streetTRACKS Gold Trust (GLD), Petrobras Energia Participaciones S.A. (PZE) and natural gas. He is short the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF), crude oil and he thinks Countrywide is going to zero.

Zanimljivo i nakon ogromnog pada CFC jučer:

Najarian noticed heavy buying of January $5 puts on CFC and he bought the options off the unusual activity.

- 11:23 - Komentari (1) - Isprintaj - #

02.01.2008., srijeda

Dva Najarianova trade-a za Novu godinu: ELON, HSI

Ovo su dva tradea koja ću pratiti:

Options “backwardation” could make for great trades during the 1st week of January. Confused? Jon Najarian explains.

I’m seeing “backwardation” in option premiums for two names, Echelon Corporation (ELON) and Hang Seng (HSI), Najarian says. Typically this phenomenon, (which is essentially higher prices for puts and calls for the front month contract) leads to sharp rise in the underlying stock.

Echelon Corp
ELON
20.64 UNCH 0%
Implied Volatility
94 84 81
Jan. Feb. Mar.

Hang Seng
Home Sec Intl
HSI
0.12 UNCH 900%
Implied Volatility
41 36
Jan. Mar.

This data suggests to me both stocks will move to the upside in early ’08, concludes Najarian.

Ne ulazim u ove pozicije, ali bit će interesantno vidjeti rezultat.

- 09:08 - Komentari (1) - Isprintaj - #

SRETNA NOVA GODINA SVIMA !!!

- 08:59 - Komentari (2) - Isprintaj - #

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