Svidja mi se sto Tim Knight kaze: "...my early guess is a quick drop in the first half hour and then a big rally afterwards. Not hundreds of point, but maybe 100....". Meni, koji se pouzdajem u tehnicku analizu ovo je poprilicno poremetilo grafove, ali bez sumnje, fenomenalan dan na marketu. Jucerasnji rekordni TXU (utilities) buyout danas izgleda potpuno drukcije.
28.02.2007. (04:26)
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Dečki čemu razbijati glavu.Prva lekcija na koju nećete nigdje i skoro baš nigdje naići,a pogotovo u medijima,knjigama,web stranicama kojima je cilj navući frišku robu za deranje u market je sljedeća... NOTE: I believe this may be one of the most important essays on the financial markets which you will ever read. Up until recently, I knew that I was missing something, but I could not quite put my finger on it. Now I know what it is. The data which follows is only as good as you can actually use it. These are the cold, savage and ruthless facts of market manipulation. I have not made these up, but have dug them up out of out-dated, generally unavailable books on market manipulations, and pieced the rest together from observations, personal experiences and conversations with market professionals and insiders. While the books are out of date, the manipulations have been passed down from one generation to another. The only thing missing was someone to supply you with what those tricks were so you can become a more educated speculator. Cheapo-Hypno-TV THE DEADLY ART OF STOCK MANIPULATION....
In every profession, there are probably a dozen or two major rules. Knowing them cold is what separates the professional from the amateur. Not knowing them at all? Well, let's put it this way: How safe would you feel if you suddenly found yourself piloting (solo) a Boeing 747 as it were landing on an airstrip? Unless you are a professional pilot, you would probably be frightened out of your wits and would soil your underwear. Hold that thought as you read this essay because I will explain to you how market manipulation works.
In order to successfully speculate, one should presume the following: THE SMALL CAP STOCK MARKETS PRIMARILY EXIST TO FLEECE YOU! I'm talking about Vancouver, Alberta, the Canadian Dealing Network and the US Over-the Counter markets (Pink Sheets, Bulletin Board, etc.). One could also stretch this, with many stocks, to include the world's senior stock markets, including Toronto, New York, NASDAQ, London, etc. The average investor or speculator is not very likely to have much success in the small cap crapshoots. I guess that is what attracted ME to these markets. I have been trying, for quite some time, to answer this question, "How come?" Now, I know. And you should, too!
By the way, the premise of these books is uniformly: "While these speculative companies do not actually make any money, one can profit by speculating in these companies." THAT is the premise on how these markets are run, by both the stock promoters, insiders, brokers, analysts and others in this industry. That logic is flawed in that it presumes "someone else" is going to end up holding the dirty bag. Follow this premise all the way through and you will realize the insane conclusion: For these markets to continue along that route, new suckers have to continue coming into the marketplace. The conclusion is insane in that such mad activity can only be short-lived. I disagree with this premise and propose another solution (see my earlier essay: A Modest Proposal) at the end of this essay.
What the professionals and the securities regulators know and understand, which the rest of us do not, is this.
"RULE NUMBER ONE: ALL SHARP PRICE MOVEMENTS -- WHETHER UP OR DOWN -- ARE THE RESULT OF ONE OR MORE (USUALLY A GROUP OF) PROFESSIONALS MANIPULATING THE SHARE PRICE."
This should explain why a mining company finds something good and "nothing happens" or the stock goes down. At the same time, for NO apparent reason, a stock suddenly takes off for the sky! On little volume! Someone is manipulating that stock, often with an unfounded rumor.
In order to make these market manipulations work, the professionals assume: (a) The Public is STUPID and (b) The Public will mainly buy at the HIGH and (c) The Public will sell at the LOW. Therefore, as long as the market manipulator can run crowd control, he can be successful.
Let's face it: The reason you speculate in such markets is that you are greedy AND optimistic. You believe in a better tomorrow and NEED to make money quickly. It is this sentiment which is exploited by the market manipulator. He controls YOUR greed and fear about a particular stock. If he wants you to buy, the company's prospects look like the next Microsoft. If the manipulator wants you to desert the sinking ship, he suddenly becomes very guarded in his remarks about the company, isn't around to glowingly answer questions about the company and/or GETS issued very bad news about the company. Which brings us to the next important rule.
"RULE NUMBER TWO: IF THE MARKET MANIPULATOR WANTS TO DISTRIBUTE (DUMP) HIS SHARES, HE WILL START A GOOD NEWS PROMOTIONAL CAMPAIGN."
Ever wonder why a particular company is made to look like the greatest thing since sliced bread? That sentiment is manufactured.
Newsletter writers are hired -- either secretly or not -- to cheerlead a stock. PR firms are hired and let loose upon an unsuspecting public.
28.02.2007. (12:35)
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"RULE NUMBER TWO: IF THE MARKET MANIPULATOR WANTS TO DISTRIBUTE (DUMP) HIS SHARES, HE WILL START A GOOD NEWS PROMOTIONAL CAMPAIGN."
Ever wonder why a particular company is made to look like the greatest thing since sliced bread? That sentiment is manufactured.
Newsletter writers are hired -- either secretly or not -- to cheerlead a stock. PR firms are hired and let loose upon an unsuspecting public. Contracts to appear on radio talk shows are signed and implemented. Stockbrokers get "cheap" stock to recommend the company to their "book" (that means YOU, the client in his book). An advertising campaign is rolled out (television ads, newspaper ads, card deck mailings). The company signs up to exhibit at "investment conferences" and "gold shows" (mainly so they can get a little "podium time" to hype you on their stock and tell you how "their company is really different" and "not a stock promotion.") Funny little "hype" messages are posted on Internet newsgroups by the same cast of usual suspects. The more, the merrier. And a little "juice" can go a long way toward running up the stock price.
The HYPE is on. The more clever a stock promoter, the better his knowledge of the advertising business. Little gimmicks like "positioning" are used. Example: Make a completely unknown company look warm and fuzzy and appealing to you by comparing it to a recent success story, Diamond Fields or Bre-X Minerals. That is the POSITIONING gospel, authored by Ries and Trout (famous for "Avis: We Want To Be #1" and "We Try Harder" and other such slogans). These advertising/PR executives must have stumbled onto this formula after losing their shirts speculating in a few Canadian stock promotions! The only reason you have been invited to this seemingly incredible banquet is that YOU are the main course. After the market manipulator has suckered you into "his investment," exchanging HIS paper for YOUR cash, the walls begin to close in on you. Why is that?
"RULE NUMBER THREE: AS SOON AS THE MARKET MANIPULATOR HAS COMPLETED HIS DISTRIBUTION (DUMPING) OF SHARES, HE WILL START A BAD NEWS OR NO NEWS CAMPAIGN."
Your favorite home-run stock has just stalled or retreated a bit from its high. Suddenly, there is a news VACUUM. Either NO news or BAD rumors. I discovered this with quite a few stocks. I would get LOADS of information and "hot tips." All of a sudden, my pipeline was shut-off. Some companies would even issue a news release CONDEMNING me ("We don't need 'that kind of hype' referring to me!). Cute, huh? When the company wanted fantastic hype circulated hither and yon, there would be someone there to spoon-feed me. The second the distribution phase was DONE....ooops! Sorry, no more news. Or, "I'm sorry. He's not in the office." Or, "He won't be back until Monday."
The really slick market manipulators would even seed the Internet news groups or other journalists to plant negative stories about that company. Or start a propaganda campaign of negative rumors on all available communication vehicles. Even hiring a "contrarian" or "special PR firm" to drive down the price. Even hiring someone to attack the guy who had earlier written glowingly about the company. (This is not a game for the faint-hearted!).
You'll also see the stock drifting endlessly. You may even experience a helpless feeling, as if you were floating in outer space without a lifeline. That is exactly HOW the market manipulator wants you to feel. See Rule Number Five below. He may also be doing this to avoid the severe disappointment of a "dry hole" or a "failed deal." You'll hear that oft-cried refrain, "Oh well, that's the junior minerals exploration business... very risky!" Or the oft-quoted statistic, "Nine out of 10 businesses fail each year and this IS a Venture Capital Startup stock exchange." Don't think it wasn't contrived. If a geologist at a junior mining company wasn't optimistic and rosy in his promise of exploration success, he would be replaced by someone who was! Ditto for the high-tech deal, in a world awash with PhD's.
So, how do you know when you are being taken? Look again at Rule #1. Inside that rule, a few other rules unfold which explain how a stock price is manipulated.
"RULE NUMBER FOUR: ANY STOCK THAT TRADES HUGE VOLUME AT HIGHER PRICES SIGNALS THE DISTRIBUTION PHASE."
When there was less volume, the price was lower. Professionals were accumulating. After the price runs, the volume increases. The professionals bought low and sold high. The amateurs bought high (and will soon enough sell low). In older books about market manipulation and stock promotion, which I've recently studied, the markup price referred to THREE times higher than the floor. The floor is the launchpad for the stock. For example, if one looks at the stock price and finds a steady flatline on the stock's chart of around 10 cents, then that range is the FLOOR.
Basically, the markup phase can go as high as the market manipulator is capable of taking it. From my observation
28.02.2007. (12:36)
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Basically, the markup phase can go as high as the market manipulator is capable of taking it. From my observations, a good markup should be able to run about five to ten times higher than the floor, with six to seven being common. The market manipulator will do everything in his power to keep you OUT OF THE STOCK until the share price has been marked up by at least two-three times, sometimes resorting to "shaking you out" until after he has accumulated enough shares. Once the markup has begun, the stock chart will show you one or more spikes in the volume -- all at much higher prices (marked up by the manipulator, of course). That is DISTRIBUTION and nothing else.
Example: Look at Software Control Systems (Alberta:XVN), in which I purchased shares after it had been marked up five times. There were eight days of 500,000 (plus) shares trading hands, with one day of 750,000 shares trading hands. Market manipulator(s) dumping shares into the volume at higher prices. WHENEVER you see HUGE volume after the stock has risen on a 75 degree angle, the distribution phase has started and you are likely to be buying in -- at or near the stock's peak price.
Example: Look at Diamond Fields (TSE FR), which never increased at a 75 degree angle and did not have abnormal volume spikes, yet in less than two years ran from C$4 to C$160/share.
Example: Look at Bre-X Minerals (Alberta:BXM), which did not experience its first 75 degree angle, with huge volume until July 14th, 1995. The next two trading days, BXM went down and stayed around C$12/share for two weeks. The volume had been 60% higher nearly a month earlier, with only a slight price increase. Each high volume and spectacular increase in BXM's share price was met with a price retreat and leveling off. "Suddenly," BXM wasn't trading at C$2/share; it was at C$170/share.... up 8500% in less than a year!
In both of the above cases, major Canadian newspapers ran extremely negative stories about both companies, at one time or another. In each instance, just before another share price run up, retail investors fled the stock! Just before both began yet another run up! Successful short-term speculators generally exit any stock run up when the volume soars; amateurs get greedy and buy at those points.
"RULE NUMBER FIVE: THE MARKET MANIPULATOR WILL ALWAYS TRY TO GET YOU TO BUY AT THE HIGHEST, AND SELL AT THE LOWEST PRICE POSSIBLE."
Just as the manipulator will use every available means to invite you to "the party," he will savagely and brutally drive you away from "his stock" when he has fleeced you. The first falsehood you assume is that the stock promoter WANTS you to make a bundle by investing in his company. So begins a string of lies that run for as long as your stomach can take it.
You will get the first clue that "you have been had" when the stock stalls at the higher level. Somehow, it ran out of steam and you are not sure why. Well, it ran out of steam because the market manipulator stopped running it up. It's over inflated and he can't convince more people to buy. The volume dries up while the share price seems to stall. LOOK AT THE TRADING VOLUME, NOT THE SHARE PRICE! When earlier, there may have been 500,000 shares trading each day for eight out of 12 trading days (as in the case of Software Control Systems), now the volume has slipped to 100,000 shares (or so) daily. There are some buyers there, enough for the manipulator to continue dumping his paper, but only so long as he can enlist one or more individuals/services to bang his drum.
He may continue feeding the promo guys a string of "promises" and "good news down the road." (Believe me, this HAS happened to me!) But, when the news finally arrives, the stock price goes THUD! This is entirely orchestrated by a market manipulator. You'll see it in the trading volume, most of which is CONTRIVED. A market manipulator will have various brokers buying and selling the stock to give the APPEARANCE of increasing volume and price so that YOU do start chasing it higher.
At some point during the stall stage, investors get fed up with the non-performance of the stock. It drifts for a while, in a steady retreat, with perhaps a short-lived spike in price and volume (the final signal that the manipulator has finally offloaded ALL of his paper). Then, the stock comes tumbling down -- having lost ALL of the earlier share appreciation.
Sometimes, with the more cruel manipulators, they will throw in a little false hope... giving you a little more rope so they can better hang you. Just after a severe drop, there will be a "bottom fishing" announcement which sends the share price up a bit on high volume, rises a little more after that and then continues to drift. Meanwhile, you keep getting "shaken out" through a cruel drip-drip water torture of the share price's slow retreat. Again, virtually every movement is completely orchestrated.
"RULE NUMBER SIX: IF THIS IS A REAL DEAL, THEN YOU ARE LIKELY TO BE THE LAST PERSON TO BE NOT
28.02.2007. (12:37)
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Like Jesse Livermore wrote, "If there's some easy money lying around, no one is going to force it into your pocket." The same concept can be more clearly understood by watching the tape. When a market manipulator wants you into his stock, you will hear LOUD noises of stock promotion and hype. If you are "in the loop," you will be bombarded from many directions. Similarly, if he wants you out of the stock, then there will be orchestrated rumors being circulated, rapid-fired at you again from many directions. Just as good news may come to you in waves, so will bad news.
You will see evidence of a VERY sharp drop in the share price with HUGE volume. That is you and your buddies running for the exits. If the deal is really for real, the market manipulator wants to get ALL OF YOUR SHARES or as many as he can... and at the lowest price he can. Whereas before, he wanted you IN his market, so he could dump his shares to you at a higher price, NOW when he sees that this deal IS for real, he wants to pay as little as possible for those same shares... YOUR shares which he wants to you part with, as quickly as possible.
The market manipulator will shake you out by DRIVING the price as low as he can. Just as in the "accumulation" stage, he wants to keep everything as quiet as possible so he can snap up as many of the shares for himself, he will NOW turn down, or even turn off, the volume so he can repeat the accumulation phase.
In the mining business, there seems to always be another "area play" around the corner. Just as Voisey's Bay drifted into oblivion, during the fourth quarter of 1995 and early into 1996, the same Voisey Bay "wannabees" began striking deals in Indonesia. Some even used new corporate entities. Same crooks, different shingles. The accumulation phase was TOP SECRET. The noise level was deadingly silent. As soon as the insiders accumulated all their shares, they let YOU in on the secret.
"RULE NUMBER SEVEN: CONVERSELY, YOU WILL OFTEN BE THE LAST TO KNOW WHEN THIS DEAL SHOWS SIGNS OF FAILURE."
Twenty-twenty hindsight will often show you that there was a "little stumble" in the share price, just as the "assays were delayed" or the "deal didn't go through." Manipulators were peeling off their paper to START the downslide. And ACCELERATE it. The quick slide down makes it improbable for your getting out at more than what you originally paid for the stock... and gives you a better reason for holding onto it "a little longer" in case the price rebounds. Then, the drifting stage begins and fear takes over. And unless you have serves of steel and can afford to wait out the manipulator, you will more than likely end up selling out at a cheap price.
For the insider, marketmaker or underwriter is obliged to buy back all of your paper in order to keep his company alive and maintain control of it. The less he has to pay for your paper, the lower his cost will be to commence his stock promotion again... at some future date. Even if his company has no prospects AT ALL, his "shell" of a company has some value (only in that others might want to use that structure so they can run their own stock promotion). So, the manipulator WILL buy back his paper. He just wants to make sure that he pays as little for those shares as possible.
"RULE NUMBER EIGHT: THE MARKET MANIPULATOR WILL COMPEL YOU INTO THE STOCK SO THAT YOU DRIVE UP ITS PRICE SHARES."
Placing a Market Order or Pre-Market Order is an amateur's mistake, typifying the US investor -- one who assumes that thinly traded issues are the same as blue chip stocks, to which they are accustomed. A market manipulator (traders included here) can jack up the share price during your market order and bring you back a confirmation at some preposterous level. The Market Manipulator will use the "tape" against you. He will keep buying up his own paper to keep you reaching for a higher price. He will get in line ahead of you to buy all the shares at the current price and force you to pay MORE for those shares. He will tease you and MAKE you reach for the higher price so you "won't miss out." Miss out on what? Getting your head chopped off, that's what!
One can avoid market manipulation by not buying during the huge price spikes and abnormal trading volumes, also known as chasing the stock to a higher price.
"RULE NUMBER NINE: THE MARKET MANIPULATOR IS WELL AWARE OF THE EMOTIONS YOU ARE EXPERIENCING DURING A RUN UP AND A COLLAPSE AND WILL PLAY YOUR EMOTIONS LIKE A PIANO."
During the run up, you WILL have a rush of greed which compels you to run into the stock. During the collapse, you WILL have a fear that you will lose everything... so you will rush to exit. See how simple it is and how clear a bell it strikes? Don't think this formula isn't tattooed inside the mind of every manipulator. The market manipulator will play you on the way up and play you on the way down. If he does it very well, he will make it look like someone else's fault that you lost money! Promise to fil
28.02.2007. (12:38)
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You'll rush into the stock. Scare you into losing every penny you have in that stock? You'll run away screaming with horror! And vow to NEVER, ever speculate in such stocks again. But many of you still do.... The manipulator even knows how to bring you back for yet another play.
What actors! No wonder Vancouver is sometimes called "Hollywood North."
"FINAL RULE: A NEW BATCH OF SUCKERS ARE BORN WITH EVERY NEW PLAY."
The Financial Markets are a Cruel, Unkind and Dangerous Playing Field, one place where the newest amateurs are generally fleeced the most brutally.... usually by those who KNOW the above rules.
Just as I have a duty to ensure that each of you understand how this game is played, YOU now have that same duty to guarantee that your fellow speculator understands these rules. Just as I would be a criminal for not making this data known to you, YOU would be just as criminal to keep it a secret. There will always be an unsuspecting, trusting fool whom the rabid dogs will tear to shreds, but it does NOT have to be this way.
IF every reader made this essay broadly known to his friends, acquaintances and family, and they passed it on to their friends, word of mouth could cause many of these market manipulators to pause. IF this effort were done strenuously by many, then perhaps the financial markets could weed out the crooked manipulators and the promoters could bring us more legitimate plays.
The stock markets are a financing tool. The companies BORROW money from you, when you invest or speculate in their companies. They want their share price going higher so they can finance their deal with less dilution of their shares... if they are good guys. But, how would you feel about a friend or family member who kept borrowing money from you and never repaid it? That would be theft, plain and simple. So, a market manipulator is STEALING your money. Don't let him do it anymore. Insist that the company in which you invest be honest or straight... or find another company in which to speculate. Your money talks in LOUDER volumes than any stock promotion scheme. ALWAYS refuse any deal which smells wrong.
Refuse to tolerate the scams prevalent in the financial markets. This can ONLY be accomplished by KNOWING and USING the above rules. Thoroughly COMPLETE your due diligence on a company before risking a dime. Dig up the Insider Reports to find out who is blowing out their paper, how often they are blowing out their paper and whatever happened to their "last play."
Begin to use this as YOUR rule of thumb: If the insider's paper is really worthless, then avoid it. Find another's whose paper DOES hold promise and honest possibilities. In these small cap stock markets, you are investing more in the INDIVIDUAL behind the play, than the "possibility" of the play itself. Ask yourself before speculating: Could I lend this person $5,000 for a year and hope to get it back? If not, then don't! Do it for your own good and the good of everyone else who is so foolish as to speculate in these financial markets!
The truly sane and only somewhat safe solution to all of this: FIND GOOD COMPANIES IN WHICH TO SPECULATE AND GET INTO THEM AT THE GROUND FLOOR LEVEL. Anything else is criminal or stupid. This is a case where there really isn't a gray area. It's either Black or it's White. The company and its management are scamsters or they really intend to bring value to their shareholders.
28.02.2007. (12:38)
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I to je to uz ad volume dovoljno i previše.Ispričavam se na hrpi komentara pa ako sam pretjerao izbriši... To JE SVETI GRAL MARKETA ma kako ga neki nazivali,svrstavali pod "iskustvo" i slične bullshite. Naravno da je potrebno i malo razmisliti,ali ne previše. Vidimo se u klubu milijardera za desetak godina. Živjeli dečki!
28.02.2007. (12:42)
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Nema frke Felix, ostavit ću do sutra da pročitaju svi koji prate, pa brišem :)
28.02.2007. (21:35)
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contreso
Zakljucak "FIND GOOD COMPANIES IN WHICH TO SPECULATE AND GET INTO THEM AT THE GROUND FLOOR LEVEL" me neodoljivo podsjeca na jednu od prvih knjiga o investiranju koju sam procitao, One Up On Wall Street : How To Use What You Already Know To Make Money In The Market od Peter Lyncha. U stvarnom zivotu nista lakse nego naci jednu takvu kompaniju. Hahahaha... Ima bit da je tip dobro popusio, a to i isijava iz cijelog njegovog teksta. Osobno nevjerujem u teorije zavjere (previse je igraca, netko bi sigurno progovorio za lovu, jer takvim tipovima lova je sve i sve je na prodaju). Felix, prijatelju moj, volio bih da se varam ali mi se cini da trazis perfektan sistem, da ti svaki trejd donese profit. Moje trejdersko iskustvo nije veliko, ali sam siguran sam da je nemoguce naci perfektan sistem. Nekad prije si pisao o tome da namjestanja ima, sto nije cudno jer veliki igraci cine 70 - 80% dnevnog volumena (ako me memorija nevara). Nevjerovatno mi zvuci da veliki igraci zive od nas malih investitora (koji cinimo 20-30% ukupnog dnevnog volumena). Koliko novaca mi moramo upumpati u sistem da bi oni prosjecno zaradjivali godisnje oko 10%. Nije li onda svako od nas milijarder? Kazu da je izuzetno opasno za portfolio kad pomislis da imas SVETI GRAL? Sve je relativno, zar ne? Ovo, zivjeli decki, nezelim protumaciti da ti sada nas napustas i da odlazis u ilegalu. Jos uvijek dugujem osvrt na ad volumen, gledat cu to odraditi ovaj vikend. Nisam bas siguran da je 100% siguran.
01.03.2007. (08:17)
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Naravno da nije 100% siguran.Ali je dovoljan za konstantnu profitabilnost,a to je po meni dovoljno za titulu "sveti gral" haha.Naravno da je i flexibilan,treba dobro protumačiti signale i kroz dulje vrijeme pratiti dionicu kako bi mogli tok kapitala usporediti sa vijestima o kompaniji na koju se odnose te sa kretanjima marketa.Uz to ostaje puno tehničkih problema,pogotovo u opcijama gdje na istim temeljima netko profitira,a drugi izgubi zbog lošeg planiranja,odabira strikea,vremena doi exp.,exit pointa,floating stopova itd. itd..Međutim to ne znači da je "sistem" iako ga ne bih tako nazvao jer puno ovisi o procjeni i iskustvu,odnosno nema univerzalnih signala za ulaz/izlaz u točno određenom trenutku.
01.03.2007. (10:44)
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Evo ako pogledaš relativno svježi primjer sa AAPLeom,možeš vidjeti da je vijest o jobsovim "opcijama" bila plasirana neposredno prije novog gadgeta s ciljem da se sruši cijena i pokupuje jeftino prije uzleta cijene.Čak su i OptionMasteru koji stalno prati tu kompaniju zamazali oči pa je propustio pomak prema gore.Uz to su callovi bili precijenjeni pomoću visoke i.v. kaj se često poklapa sa povećanjem prije earningsa,pa im je i to išlo na ruku.Moglo se zaključiti vrlo lagano da će AAPL ići gore,a koja vijest će ga "podići" ionako je manje važno. Najobičnija i lako protumačljiva manipulacija ako imamo mogućnost praćenja ulaza i izlaza kapitala u dionicu.Također je i sa google earningsima sve bilo predvidljivo.Došlo je do pražnjenja prije earningsa uz rast cijene.Naravno da je cijena nakon objave zarada pala.Zamisli samo što bi se dogodilo da su takve zarade bile objavljne u neko vrijeme prije dok je ulaz kapitala nadmašivao cijenu..naravno da bi u biti pozitivne zarade iznad očekivanja podigle cijenu.Ovako slušamo naknadna sranja od vijesti u smislu ..kao zarade jesu bile iznad očekivanja,ALI premalo da bi se cijena mogla održati na istoj razini..ha ha ha.Međutim stvari su nam otežali ponovno dizanjem i.v. u nebesa tako da su nakon earningsa povećanjem volatilnosti putevi izgubili na vrijednosti zbog naglog SMANJENJA? i.v. čime su potpuno offsetali sav profit za longove uslijed pomaka,pa i više od toga...probojem strikea na niže putevi su još izgubili na vrijednosti!!!Sve su to MANIPULACIJE i na njima se zasnivaju sva kratkoročna gibanja marketa.Problem je u tome što se taj vremenski odsječak sve više produžuje,čak do 2-3 tjedna ovisno o potrebama manipulatora.Vijesti su samo posljedica...Uostalom koga briga za naknadne vijesti:)
01.03.2007. (11:13)
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contreso
OK. Krenimo sa “…vijest o jobsovim "opcijama" bila plasirana neposredno prije novog gadgeta… Felix.” . Daklem govoris o decembru 2006. Sto da se radi? Tehnicki gledano. Cijena dodiruje donju BB traku. Pozicija SHORT. Max zarada 7 points. Cijena ide ispod 50 MA. Pozicija SHORT. Max zarada 7 points. MACD bearish crossover pocetkom decembra. Max zarada 12 points. RSI ispod 50. Max zarada 7 points. Stohastic ispod 50. Max zarada 9 points. Drugim rijecima, mene kao tehnicara ne interesiraju unutrasnje stvari kompanije. Graf* je moj GRAL. Ne interesira me trac, samo graf i trenutni trend. Jednostavno , zar ne? Neznam na koji pomak prema gore mislis kad govoris o AAPLeu. Pogledajmo sto se dogadjalo 9 Januara, 2007.(ako ciljas na taj dan) Mcworld konferencija (odrzava se svake godine u San Franciscu) nije bila nikakva tajna. Znalo se za nju tjednima unaprijed. To je na CNBCu bila udarna vijest, i svi su cekali sto ce se tu dogoditi. Ono sto meni nije jasno je kako uopce mozemo razgovarati o zamazanim ocima imajuci u vidu ovaj graf. Ovo je transcript sa Mcworlda 2007 (govori Steve Jobs): “9:42am - "Well today, we're introducing THREE revolutionary new products. The first one is a widescreen ipod with touch controls" The crowd goes wild. "The second is a revolutionary new mobile phone."
9:43am - "And the third is a breakthrough internet communications device." Tepid response on that last one, but he almost got a standing ovation on the phone. '
"An iPod, a phone, an internet mobile communicator. An iPod, a phone, an internet mobile communicator.... these are NOT three separate devices!" "And we are calling it iPhone!"
"Today Apple is going to reinvent the phone. And here it is..." It's a gag image, cheers.
9:44am - "Before we get into it, let me talk about a category of things ... the most advanced phones are called smartphones. They typically involve a phone, have plastic little keyboards on them, the problem is they're not so smart and they're not so easy to use. If you make a biz school 101 graph, cellphones are at the bottom... smartphones are a little smarter, but they're harder to use."
Taj dan (Jan 09) sam bio doma. AAPLe je doslovno eksplodirao oko 9:45. Sve da se nije uslo u trejd odmah po objavi vijesti (iPhone) na cijeni oko $87. Moglo se uci 45 minuta kasnije na cijeni od $90 te jos uvijek zaraditi 2 pointa do kraja dana. O kakvom mazanju ociju mi tu zapravo govorimo. Ono sto budi moju sumnju kad vec spominjes OptionMastera, je, da je on tako reci ukrao trejd brokerima zahvaljujuci Marijinoj brbljavosti. A ovo mu je promaklo? Pogotovo jos imajuci u vidu da on a i velika vecina vas koji ga pratite (nista lose u tome) se deklarirate kao NEWS trejderi (netko je to nekad napisao). Ako ovo nije bila vijest, koja je cak i mjesecima unaprijed bila najavljivana, onda ja neznam sto je vijest. Zbilja me cudi da ste svi vi ostali paralizirani ovom vijescu. Toliko o tome. Citirat cu te: “Sjećam se jedne OptionMasterove izjave o skupoći/jeftinoći opcija...u smislu da on to procijeni otprilike kao što na placu procjenjujemo skupoću povrća.Ne sumnjam da je tako,ali kako je došao do toga?Iskustvom!Zbilja poučno.Sve mi je bilo jasno,kao da nisam ništa pitao:) “Međutim stvari su nam otežali ponovno dizanjem i.v. u nebesa tako da su nakon earningsa povećanjem volatilnosti putevi izgubili na vrijednosti zbog naglog SMANJENJA? i.v. čime su potpuno offsetali sav profit za longove uslijed pomaka,pa i više od toga...probojem strikea na niže putevi su još izgubili na vrijednosti!!!Sve su to MANIPULACIJE i na njima se zasnivaju sva kratkoročna gibanja marketa.Problem je u tome što se taj vremenski odsječak sve više produžuje,čak do 2-3 tjedna ovisno o potrebama manipulatora.” Ako OM, nesumljivo najiskusniji od svih nas koji se tu vrtimo to kaze, pa jos nadodam li tome manipulacije o kojima govoris… Sto mi je zakljuciti? Opcije se trejdaju na osjecaj i velika je vjerovatnost da cu biti izmanipuliran te sve izgubiti. Sad se ja mislim, OM je iskusniji od mene a ja sigurno nemam taj dar koji on ima, veliki igraci ce me navuci na tanak led, pa ZASTO UOPCE TREJDATI OPCIJE (OTM prvenstveno)? Dr. Alexander Elder o opcijama:” Options, are hope business. I am a professional-I sell hope. Many beginners buy calls because they can’t afford stocks. Successful stock and futures traders sometimes use options to reduce risks or protect profits. Serious traders buy options rarely and only in special situations. Greed is the engine of option-selling propaganda.” Kao sto rekoh prije, kupujem samo deep ITM opcije sa minimalnom vremenskom vrijednoscu. Interesantno je to da ima vrlo malo blogova koji pisu iskljucivo o opcijama. A jos kad bi trejdove opisivali, sto, i kako? Znali itko za koji?
02.03.2007. (04:50)
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Ok Contresso, ti trejdaj po grafovima i linijama,a mene osim golih linija zanima kaj stoji iza njih kako bih dobio bolje prognostičke rezultate. Graf je samo posljedica. Moram ti priznati da sam na poslu svakodnevno na kompu suočen sa real time grafovima na par monitora.Kada ne bih razmišljao što stoji iza real time grafova i ravnao se samo po njima bez razmišljanja...napravio bih ogromnu štetu ili u najgorem slučaju buuum!Grafovi su samo zakašnjela posljedica mojih poteza koji mi pomažu u orijentaciji i donošenju odluka za buduće poteze.Razumiješ? Slično je po meni i u ovome poslu! Ako ti se opcije čine nesavladive pa nemoj ih trejdati. Ja pak sam se orjentirao samo i isključivo na opcije.Nema šanse da ikada protrejdam ijednu dionicu. Tehnička analiza je za mene gotova stvar i tu se više nema kaj novoga izmisliti,osim kombiniranih i inovativnih pristupa.Tu ne podrazumijevam različite kombinacije već poznatoga jer su sve one više manje na isti kalup. Sve se zasniva na određivanju trenda,buy sell signalima indikatora,ukupnom volumenu.Za mene nedovoljno i potrošeno.
02.03.2007. (20:28)
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Rvo i original posta iz tog vremena prije objave vijesti o novom "čudu" od mobitela.."Pogledajte kakvo iskrcavanje na AAPL!!! Ugrubo...sav kapital koji je uložen u 95 dana u intervalu pri cijenama od "40%($61)" do "100%($91)" "prodan" je u 20ak dana po cijenama u intervalu od "100%($91)" do "75%($81)".Ugrubo je zarada min. čistih "35%(cca $14 x VOL.)"!!! S druge strane teško da će cijena ići dolje u skorije vrijeme...pogledajte ulaz kapitala od 25% u intervalu rasta cijena od samo 10ak%,što prejudicira porast cijene. Ako cijena uskoro padne to bi značilo GUBITAK za big money,a nisam siguran da oni ne znaju kaj rade i ne raspolažu informacijama o posljednjoj aferi..."
Evo,ako je to komplicirano,onda ne zanm kaj nije.
02.03.2007. (20:34)
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02.03.2007. (20:35)
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contreso
Citirat cu Murphya iz knjige TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF THE FINANCIAL MARKETS: “ If demand exceeds supply, price should rise. If supply exceeds demand, prices should fall. This action is the basis of all economic and fundamental forecasting. The technician then turn this statement around to arrive at the conclusion that if price are rising, for whatever the specific reasons, demand must supply and fundamentals must be bullish. If prices fall, the fundamentals must be bearish….After all, the technician indirectly studying fundamentals…The charts do not in themselves cause markets to move up or down. They simply reflects the bullish or bearish psychology of the marketplace. As a rule, chartist do not concern themselves with the reasons why price rise or fall…He or she just doesn’t believe that knowing what those reasons are is necessary in the forecasting process.” Nemam uopce iluziju da mogu uci na pocetku trenda ili izaci pri samom kraju istog, sto i nije moj cilj. Kao sto kaze narodna poslovica; KUD SVI TURCI TUD I MALI MUJO ili Wall St. inacica TREND IS YOUR FRIEND. Pustiti cu da management, ekonomija, fundamentalisti… pokrenu cijenu, a onda ce se gledati prikljuciti tom smijeru. Mozda sam prije krivo razumio da si trejder ili bar naginjes trejdanju. Fundamentalana analize se vezuje uz investitore, sto je mozda razlog ovog malog nesporazuma. Mada OTM opcije (a pogotovo neposredno pred expiraciju, zapravo vrlo spekulativan pristup po mome vidjenju) nikako nemogu svrstati u investitorsku tehniku. Kao potvrdu o savladivosti opcija uzet cu tvoja dva citata iz mog proslog komentara (plac-povrce, IV-manipulacija). Sad kad smo se malo zagrijali predjimo na posao.:-)) Volumenski A/D. Govorim kao ADVOCATUS DIABOLI, i razumi me tako. Ako se dobro sjecam, cijenu dionice, njen A/D unosis u Excel. Obe vrijednosti unosis na graf u postotnom iznosu. Idemo sad na AAPL graf. Molit cu te da pogledas moj prvi graf. Povukao si dvije support linije na A/D (crne). Zasto nisi povukao sve ostale moguce support i resistance linije na A/D? Kako odredjujes koji vrhovi su upotrebljivi a koji ne? Sto zamjeras ovim mogucim linijama koje sam povukao na tvom grafu? Mozes li svaku strelicu (boju) komentirati posebno, ako treba naravno? Graf drugi. Na srockchartsu koristeci tvoj metod za AAPLa. Bez da ulazim dublje za primjetiti je da je A/D linija manje nervozna. Trejd pod brojem 4 bi bio katastrofalan gubitak bez stop ordera. Trejdovi 5 i 6 su ujedno trejdovi sa tvog grafa i mislim da su dosta dobro uhvaceni na ovom grafu. Graf treci. Ovdje sam plavim linijama povezao vrhove cijena. Zaprepascujuca je podudarnost tvojih i mojih linija. Linije su nam simetricne. Nezelimo li cjepidlaciti, cijena i A/D se krecu uporedo. Cijena brze raste od A/Da, dok A/D prze ponire od cijene. Tvoji i moji buy/sell signali su skoro identicni (mozda dan razlike sudeci po grafu).
Iz svega navedenog mogu zakljuciti slijedece. -Velika podudarnost linije cijene i A/D linije. -Stockcharts graf uspjesno prati tvoj sistem (mada samo jedan primjer) -Povezujuci susjedne vrhove dobili bi puno trejdova (ne nuzno dobrih, troskovi trejdanja bi znatno opteretili portfelj) -Analiza je vremenski vrlo zahtjevna (unosenje podataka za svaku od dionica koju pratimo),
Na osnovu AAPLovog grafa, izlazi da je najbolje koristiti staru oprobanu i dokazanu tehniku povlacenja support i resistance linija. Trejd signal se javlja kad cijena probije tu liniju (naravno uz dodatne pokazatelje). Ovim nacinom izbjegli bi nepotrebno kompliciranje i dupliranje signala. Tako ja to vidim na osnovu onog sto si mi ponudio. Jedva cekam tvoj odgovor.
P.S. nebi bilo lose da ovu raspravu prebacimo na friskije datume jer ce ovaj Bundyev post uskoro isklizati u arhivu.
04.03.2007. (06:14)
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Prvi graf...odlično si povukao linije,ali ne uzimam ih u obzir jer su obje preblizu jedna drugoj i nisu blizu vrha ili dna. Drugi graf...nije isti kao moj,ako ne primjećuješ ne pokazuje pravo stanje ulaza izlaza kapitala,pogotovo pri kraju grafa gdje je ulaz kapitala više nego dvostruko viši(zeleno) od porasta cijene. Treći graf..dolazi do razilaženja u smjeru.Ovaj primjer nije primjer razilaženja,već razlike u ulazu kapitala u odnosu na cijenu. Ako baš hoćeš primjer razilaženja pogledaj SOV chart. Pozdrav ,žurim ,a kasnije ću još ponešto napisati.
04.03.2007. (15:38)
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Uglavnom to kaj si našao na stockchartsu je potpuno drigačije od mojih proračuna i NE pokazuje stvarno stanje ulaza/izlaza kapitala.Pogledaj na početnome usponu koliko je "ulaz" na stchartsu niži od realnog,odnosno koliko je zel.crta ispod cijene,a nije u stvarnosti...
04.03.2007. (15:41)
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NIJE UVIJEK STVAR SAMO U RAZILAŽENJU SMJERA VEĆ JE BITNIJE RAZILAŽENJE"VELIČINA"...,A TO NA STOCKCHARTU NIJE NI PRIBLIŽNO TOČNO POKAZANO!
04.03.2007. (15:43)
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contreso
Dok cekam daljnja pojasnjenja evo jos nekoliko pitanja na osnovu dobivenog odgovora. Nekuzim ovo,"...obje preblizu jedna drugoj i nisu blizu vrha ili dna." Na koju strelicu mislis? Dali hoces reci da linija cijene i A/D linija nesmiju biti blizu jedna druge u trenutku presijecanaj trend linije? Koliko min moraju biti udaljeno jedna od druge za pouzdan signal (u%)? Neposredno pred buy i sell signal (za AAPL) u pravu si kad kazes da je A/D linija napravila puno veci pomak nego sama cijena. Koliki min taj pomak mora biti za kvalitetan trejd signal? Mozes li u nekoliko tocaka definirati svoj sistem? Molit cu te da pogledas slijedeca dva trejding prozora sa opcijama za AAPL kako ih daje TradeStation. Stavio sam samo call opcije zbog preglednosti. Prozori 1 i 2. Koji stupci bi bili vazni onome tko iskljucivo trejda ITM opcije?
04.03.2007. (19:31)
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Gle Contreso.Moj proračun se temelji na ulazu/izlazu kapitala kroz neko vremensko razdoblje,najčešće za vremenski odsječak koristim30,60,90 do 120 dana kako bih stekao potpuniju sliku i izabrao najprikladniji graf.Iskreno ne znam da li negdje na webu prodaju ovakve chartove,što je moguće,ali na ideju sam došao sam.Graf za 200 dana će se itekako razlikovati od onoga za 90 iz razloga što se mjeri ulaz izlaz kapitala od početnoga datuma u odnosu na cijenu.Mene ne zanimaju dugoročne prognoze,već tražim brzi volatilni veći pomak kao posljedicu relativno kratkotrajnog razilaženja.Nije isti obični volumenski ad koji se izračunava po generalno +/- volumenu ovisno o rastu ili padu cijene taj dan.Poznato je da veliki često kupuju za vrijeme rasta,a prodaju za vrijeme pada cijene,pa tako u cjenovno negativnim danima ulaz kapitala može biti pozitivan i obrnuto.To nećeš naći na stockchartsu niti igdje.Deplasirano je sada govoriti o potrebnoj udaljenosti linije u % jer se ona razlikuje od slučaja do slučaja,a također i od vremenskog intervala u kojem promatramo,ali što je udaljenost veća dionica je u većoj neravnoteži pa je veći i nagli pomak daleko izvjesniji.Nešto slično poput manje vrijednosti signala ako se ne radi o trendu u klasičnoj TA.Dakle ako su linije količine kapitala koji je ušao i izašao u dionicu blizu linije cijene gledajući relativno prema grafu u vremenkom intervalu,tada možemo zaključiti da je dionica "u ravnoteži" i neće doći do većih pomaka u nijednom smjeru,pa takve signale(strelice ne razmatram,osim ako one nisu u samom klimaxu,na vrhu cijene i ulaza kapitala gdje je vrlo izvjesna jača korekcija.Moramo promatrati dionicu u cjelini i kroz dulje vrijeme kroz prizmu earningsa,vijesti...jer je većina njih pomalo specifična,poput googla npr. Zato je odgovor da ne mogu u nekoliko točaka definirati svoj sistem,a postaje mi jasno zašto OptionMaster ne može napisati konkretni "recept" za svoj stil trejdanja jer se više oslanja na specifično analitičko razmišljanje odnosno iskustvo. Što se tiče ITM opcija,ne razumijem pitanje.Prvo nije mi jasno zašto bi se netko ograničio isključivo samo na ITM opcije.Imaju nekih prednosti kao trejdanje neposredno prije exp.,ali sve ovisi o riziku vs vjerojatnosti....Opcije bliže ATM u imaju višu deltu od onih udaljenijih...,pa je i posljedično tome gubitak/dobitak ali i rizik da propadnu u otm veći od udaljenijih strikeova što je logično i bez brojčanih podatakaSvi podaci u tablicama se podrazumijevaju ako razumijemo bit opcija i ne znam zašto bi pridavali veću pažnju ijednome podatku osim I.V. jer oni proističu iz samih opcija.Važna je i IV,ALI BIH JE RADIJE PROMATRAO GRAFIČKI U DULJEM VREMENSKOM INTERVALU NPR.PRIJE EARNINGSA DA BIH STEKAO SUD O PRECIJENJENOSTI OPCIJA .Prije svega najvažniji je risk graf i procjena vjerojatnosti smjera i profita...pročitaj moj post o tome jer mislim da ćeš naći uopćene odgovore tamo jer je točno određene NEMOGUĆE dati bez analize kompletnoga trejda.
04.03.2007. (21:00)
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Zakaj je deplasirano govoriti o udaljenostima?Između ostaloga i zbog količine samoga uloženog kapitala,a to itekako ovisi i o cijeni dionice te o volumenu i kapitalizaciji.Nije isto ako dolazi do većeg razilaženja u primjeru neke jeftine dionice pri niskom volumenu ili samo naizgled manje razilaženje NA PRIMJERU SKUPIH DIONICA,GDJE SU ULOŽENE KOLIČINE KAPITALA KUDIKAMO VEĆE(pa imaju puno veću "$težinu$" unatoč "manjem" linijskom razilaženju.To ti je slično kao i volatilnost,gdje su pri small ili micro cap dionicama volatilnosti u pravilu puno više od big cap,ali su zato vrlo lako manipulativne sa malim iznosima kapitala(zato uključujemo i volumen trgovanja u procjenu).Također razilaženje treba promatrati u svjetlu ukupne market kapitalizacije,pa ako su dolarski iznosi u odnosu prema kapitalizaciji u većem postotku imaju veću težinu od onih u manjem neovisno o samoj količini nesrazmjera uloženog kapitala i cijene. Kada govorimo o razilaženju,nije nužno da se razilaze u smjeru.Cijena i ad mogu se kretati i u istom smjeru,ali razilaženje pritom može biti veliko...npr cijena raste puno sporije od uloženog kapitala i obrnuto.Sve je to RAZILAŽENJE ,a istismjerna razilaženja mogu biti "jača" od "kontrasmjernih". Moram li spomenuti da je normalno da grafovi na različitim vremenskim intervalima izgledaju drugačije iz jednostavnog razloga što početnim datumom grafa cijena i ad "kreću od nule".Odnosi cijene i uloženoga kapitala su za svaki vremenski interval RAZLIČITI..jednostavno,zar ne?Zato promatram različite duljine kako bih izabrao vremenski odsječak koji mi najbolje odgovara i stekao potpuniju sliku.Nešto poput promatranja od dugoročnih prema kratkoročnim chartovima kako bih dobio sliku o tome radi li se na kratkoročnijim chartovima o ev. korekciji ili pak se slijedi glavni trend...Kako ti se sada čini,obične dvije linije,a toliko bih o njima mogao pisati i pisati,koliko korisnih podataka i zaključaka se iz njih može izvući...još ako ih promatramo u svjetlu vijesti,jer često prejudiciraju vijest koja će se tek pojaviti,makar ne znam o čemu se radi I NIJE MI VAŽNO HOĆE LI SE RADITI O NOVOM PROIZVODU,ZARADAMA,SUDSKIM PRESUDAMA......ALI ZATO TO ZNA KRUPNI KAPITAL I SHODNO TOME ULAŽE? Jednostavno se ukrcaš u vlak kojim upravljaju i nema šanse da odeš u pogrešnom sjeru..haha!
05.03.2007. (17:01)
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contreso
@ Felix. Ima previse kontradiktornih stavova u tvojim komentarima da se cak brinem. No, necu o tome.
Cini se da upadas u klasicnu klopku, naime, analiza grafa postaje previse subjektivna. Stara je istina, da dva citaca grafova nikada nece dati isto tumacenje. Jos ako k tome nadodas earningse, mikro i makro stanje ekonomije, politicku sitoaciju, sektore i industrije koje padaju ili rastu te jos hrpu toga. Jasno je da cemo se tesko sloziti kuda ce ta dionica! Iz jednostavnog razloga sto ces ti jednoj vrsti informacija dati vece znacenje a ja mozda drugoj, a sto ce na sve to reci Bundy? Drugo, kazes: “Mene ne zanimaju dugoročne prognoze,već tražim brzi volatilni veći pomak kao posljedicu relativno kratkotrajnog razilaženja.” Ima li smisla dionicu analizirati kao investitor a onda je brzo protrejdati?? Mozda ce me tvoji real time primjeri razuvjeriti. Pozdrav.
06.03.2007. (08:20)
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Pa ako investitori koriste time frame od 30,60,90,120,200...dana onda ja jesam investitor,ha ha.Čovječe pa u tome i je kvaka..kako misliš da bi se veliki kapital izvukao iz dionice uz istovremeni puno maji pad ili čak rast cijene i obratno,nego dugoročnije,ako 30,60 i 90 dana tebi uopće izgleda dugoročno. Ako trejdaš i swing moraš pogledati dugoročnije chartove iz razloga da znaš jel se radi o korekciji ili nastavku trenda...naravno da ti je isplativije ići na nastavak trenda jer retracement je slabiji od pomaka u smjeru trenda.Nema tu subjektivnosti.Jednostavno se nećeš potruditi shvatiti,ali to je tvoj problem:)Razmisli još jednom.Sve sam točno,nedvosmisleno i nekontradiktorno objasnio...možda samo da pokušaj sve promatrati u dolarskoj vrijednosti...isto kao što veliki ulažu 500 milijuna u big cap,za te novce mogu kupiti 100 micro capova ili nekoliko desetaka small... i ti me sad pitaš koji bi razmak u % trebao biti između linija...potpuno krivi pristup u startu...lova je lova,a razmak ovisi i o veličini dionice,zbog količine kapitala!Ili ako se veliki počnu prazniti 30ak dana prije objave earningsa,naravno polako da ne sruše cijenu,a cijena čak i raste,kaj misliš koji će rezultati earningsa biti objavljeni?I tebi sad nije jasno zakaj sam nadodao "hrpu" toga,neđu njima i earningse?Pa earningsi su klimax na kojem će doći do naglog "uravnoteženja" dionice kako bi mogli započeti novi ciklus manipulacija i trejdanja po insiderskim informacijama nakon što cijena naglo padne pa je oni ponovno kupe i "ispod razine".Razilaženje ne može trajati vječno,a objava bilo kakvih vijesti na temelju kojih insider informacija je do razilaženja i došlo je također KLIMAX,samo je za razliku od earningsa teže procijeniti timing!Zašto klimax?Pa on je dobrodošao velikom kapitalu zbog pohlepe ili panike uslijed vijesti pa mogu prodati na višim levelima ili kupiti na nižim od projiciranih... Zajebi tu sad nekakva investitorska i kojekava suhoparna pravila i definicije trejdanja. Uzmi ili ostavi:) Pozdrav!
06.03.2007. (22:54)
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contreso
Svidja mi se sto Tim Knight kaze: "...my early guess is a quick drop in the first half hour and then a big rally afterwards. Not hundreds of point, but maybe 100....".
Meni, koji se pouzdajem u tehnicku analizu ovo je poprilicno poremetilo grafove, ali bez sumnje, fenomenalan dan na marketu.
Jucerasnji rekordni TXU (utilities) buyout danas izgleda potpuno drukcije.
28.02.2007. (04:26) - - - - - promjene spremljene- uredi komentar - obriši komentar - prijavi ovaj komentar kao spam - zabrani komentiranje autoru ovog komentara- učitavam...
felix...
Dečki čemu razbijati glavu.Prva lekcija na koju nećete nigdje i skoro baš nigdje naići,a pogotovo u medijima,knjigama,web stranicama kojima je cilj navući frišku robu za deranje u market je sljedeća...
NOTE: I believe this may be one of the most important essays on the financial markets which you will ever read. Up until recently, I knew that I was missing something, but I could not quite put my finger on it. Now I know what it is. The data which follows is only as good as you can actually use it. These are the cold, savage and ruthless facts of market manipulation. I have not made these up, but have dug them up out of out-dated, generally unavailable books on market manipulations, and pieced the rest together from observations, personal experiences and conversations with market professionals and insiders. While the books are out of date, the manipulations have been passed down from one generation to another. The only thing missing was someone to supply you with what those tricks were so you can become a more educated speculator.
Cheapo-Hypno-TV
THE DEADLY ART OF STOCK MANIPULATION....
In every profession, there are probably a dozen or two major rules. Knowing them cold is what separates the professional from the amateur. Not knowing them at all? Well, let's put it this way: How safe would you feel if you suddenly found yourself piloting (solo) a Boeing 747 as it were landing on an airstrip? Unless you are a professional pilot, you would probably be frightened out of your wits and would soil your underwear. Hold that thought as you read this essay because I will explain to you how market manipulation works.
In order to successfully speculate, one should presume the following: THE SMALL CAP STOCK MARKETS PRIMARILY EXIST TO FLEECE YOU! I'm talking about Vancouver, Alberta, the Canadian Dealing Network and the US Over-the Counter markets (Pink Sheets, Bulletin Board, etc.). One could also stretch this, with many stocks, to include the world's senior stock markets, including Toronto, New York, NASDAQ, London, etc. The average investor or speculator is not very likely to have much success in the small cap crapshoots. I guess that is what attracted ME to these markets. I have been trying, for quite some time, to answer this question, "How come?" Now, I know. And you should, too!
By the way, the premise of these books is uniformly: "While these speculative companies do not actually make any money, one can profit by speculating in these companies." THAT is the premise on how these markets are run, by both the stock promoters, insiders, brokers, analysts and others in this industry. That logic is flawed in that it presumes "someone else" is going to end up holding the dirty bag. Follow this premise all the way through and you will realize the insane conclusion: For these markets to continue along that route, new suckers have to continue coming into the marketplace. The conclusion is insane in that such mad activity can only be short-lived. I disagree with this premise and propose another solution (see my earlier essay: A Modest Proposal) at the end of this essay.
What the professionals and the securities regulators know and understand, which the rest of us do not, is this.
"RULE NUMBER ONE: ALL SHARP PRICE MOVEMENTS -- WHETHER UP OR DOWN -- ARE THE RESULT OF ONE OR MORE (USUALLY A GROUP OF) PROFESSIONALS MANIPULATING THE SHARE PRICE."
This should explain why a mining company finds something good and "nothing happens" or the stock goes down. At the same time, for NO apparent reason, a stock suddenly takes off for the sky! On little volume! Someone is manipulating that stock, often with an unfounded rumor.
In order to make these market manipulations work, the professionals assume: (a) The Public is STUPID and (b) The Public will mainly buy at the HIGH and (c) The Public will sell at the LOW. Therefore, as long as the market manipulator can run crowd control, he can be successful.
Let's face it: The reason you speculate in such markets is that you are greedy AND optimistic. You believe in a better tomorrow and NEED to make money quickly. It is this sentiment which is exploited by the market manipulator. He controls YOUR greed and fear about a particular stock. If he wants you to buy, the company's prospects look like the next Microsoft. If the manipulator wants you to desert the sinking ship, he suddenly becomes very guarded in his remarks about the company, isn't around to glowingly answer questions about the company and/or GETS issued very bad news about the company. Which brings us to the next important rule.
"RULE NUMBER TWO: IF THE MARKET MANIPULATOR WANTS TO DISTRIBUTE (DUMP) HIS SHARES, HE WILL START A GOOD NEWS PROMOTIONAL CAMPAIGN."
Ever wonder why a particular company is made to look like the greatest thing since sliced bread? That sentiment is manufactured.
Newsletter writers are hired -- either secretly or not -- to cheerlead a stock. PR firms are hired and let loose upon an unsuspecting public.
28.02.2007. (12:35) - - - - - promjene spremljene- uredi komentar - obriši komentar - prijavi ovaj komentar kao spam - zabrani komentiranje autoru ovog komentara- učitavam...
felix...
"RULE NUMBER TWO: IF THE MARKET MANIPULATOR WANTS TO DISTRIBUTE (DUMP) HIS SHARES, HE WILL START A GOOD NEWS PROMOTIONAL CAMPAIGN."
Ever wonder why a particular company is made to look like the greatest thing since sliced bread? That sentiment is manufactured.
Newsletter writers are hired -- either secretly or not -- to cheerlead a stock. PR firms are hired and let loose upon an unsuspecting public. Contracts to appear on radio talk shows are signed and implemented. Stockbrokers get "cheap" stock to recommend the company to their "book" (that means YOU, the client in his book). An advertising campaign is rolled out (television ads, newspaper ads, card deck mailings). The company signs up to exhibit at "investment conferences" and "gold shows" (mainly so they can get a little "podium time" to hype you on their stock and tell you how "their company is really different" and "not a stock promotion.") Funny little "hype" messages are posted on Internet newsgroups by the same cast of usual suspects. The more, the merrier. And a little "juice" can go a long way toward running up the stock price.
The HYPE is on. The more clever a stock promoter, the better his knowledge of the advertising business. Little gimmicks like "positioning" are used. Example: Make a completely unknown company look warm and fuzzy and appealing to you by comparing it to a recent success story, Diamond Fields or Bre-X Minerals. That is the POSITIONING gospel, authored by Ries and Trout (famous for "Avis: We Want To Be #1" and "We Try Harder" and other such slogans). These advertising/PR executives must have stumbled onto this formula after losing their shirts speculating in a few Canadian stock promotions! The only reason you have been invited to this seemingly incredible banquet is that YOU are the main course. After the market manipulator has suckered you into "his investment," exchanging HIS paper for YOUR cash, the walls begin to close in on you. Why is that?
"RULE NUMBER THREE: AS SOON AS THE MARKET MANIPULATOR HAS COMPLETED HIS DISTRIBUTION (DUMPING) OF SHARES, HE WILL START A BAD NEWS OR NO NEWS CAMPAIGN."
Your favorite home-run stock has just stalled or retreated a bit from its high. Suddenly, there is a news VACUUM. Either NO news or BAD rumors. I discovered this with quite a few stocks. I would get LOADS of information and "hot tips." All of a sudden, my pipeline was shut-off. Some companies would even issue a news release CONDEMNING me ("We don't need 'that kind of hype' referring to me!). Cute, huh? When the company wanted fantastic hype circulated hither and yon, there would be someone there to spoon-feed me. The second the distribution phase was DONE....ooops! Sorry, no more news. Or, "I'm sorry. He's not in the office." Or, "He won't be back until Monday."
The really slick market manipulators would even seed the Internet news groups or other journalists to plant negative stories about that company. Or start a propaganda campaign of negative rumors on all available communication vehicles. Even hiring a "contrarian" or "special PR firm" to drive down the price. Even hiring someone to attack the guy who had earlier written glowingly about the company. (This is not a game for the faint-hearted!).
You'll also see the stock drifting endlessly. You may even experience a helpless feeling, as if you were floating in outer space without a lifeline. That is exactly HOW the market manipulator wants you to feel. See Rule Number Five below. He may also be doing this to avoid the severe disappointment of a "dry hole" or a "failed deal." You'll hear that oft-cried refrain, "Oh well, that's the junior minerals exploration business... very risky!" Or the oft-quoted statistic, "Nine out of 10 businesses fail each year and this IS a Venture Capital Startup stock exchange." Don't think it wasn't contrived. If a geologist at a junior mining company wasn't optimistic and rosy in his promise of exploration success, he would be replaced by someone who was! Ditto for the high-tech deal, in a world awash with PhD's.
So, how do you know when you are being taken? Look again at Rule #1. Inside that rule, a few other rules unfold which explain how a stock price is manipulated.
"RULE NUMBER FOUR: ANY STOCK THAT TRADES HUGE VOLUME AT HIGHER PRICES SIGNALS THE DISTRIBUTION PHASE."
When there was less volume, the price was lower. Professionals were accumulating. After the price runs, the volume increases. The professionals bought low and sold high. The amateurs bought high (and will soon enough sell low). In older books about market manipulation and stock promotion, which I've recently studied, the markup price referred to THREE times higher than the floor. The floor is the launchpad for the stock. For example, if one looks at the stock price and finds a steady flatline on the stock's chart of around 10 cents, then that range is the FLOOR.
Basically, the markup phase can go as high as the market manipulator is capable of taking it. From my observation
28.02.2007. (12:36) - - - - - promjene spremljene- uredi komentar - obriši komentar - prijavi ovaj komentar kao spam - zabrani komentiranje autoru ovog komentara- učitavam...
felix...
Basically, the markup phase can go as high as the market manipulator is capable of taking it. From my observations, a good markup should be able to run about five to ten times higher than the floor, with six to seven being common. The market manipulator will do everything in his power to keep you OUT OF THE STOCK until the share price has been marked up by at least two-three times, sometimes resorting to "shaking you out" until after he has accumulated enough shares. Once the markup has begun, the stock chart will show you one or more spikes in the volume -- all at much higher prices (marked up by the manipulator, of course). That is DISTRIBUTION and nothing else.
Example: Look at Software Control Systems (Alberta:XVN), in which I purchased shares after it had been marked up five times. There were eight days of 500,000 (plus) shares trading hands, with one day of 750,000 shares trading hands. Market manipulator(s) dumping shares into the volume at higher prices. WHENEVER you see HUGE volume after the stock has risen on a 75 degree angle, the distribution phase has started and you are likely to be buying in -- at or near the stock's peak price.
Example: Look at Diamond Fields (TSE FR), which never increased at a 75 degree angle and did not have abnormal volume spikes, yet in less than two years ran from C$4 to C$160/share.
Example: Look at Bre-X Minerals (Alberta:BXM), which did not experience its first 75 degree angle, with huge volume until July 14th, 1995. The next two trading days, BXM went down and stayed around C$12/share for two weeks. The volume had been 60% higher nearly a month earlier, with only a slight price increase. Each high volume and spectacular increase in BXM's share price was met with a price retreat and leveling off. "Suddenly," BXM wasn't trading at C$2/share; it was at C$170/share.... up 8500% in less than a year!
In both of the above cases, major Canadian newspapers ran extremely negative stories about both companies, at one time or another. In each instance, just before another share price run up, retail investors fled the stock! Just before both began yet another run up! Successful short-term speculators generally exit any stock run up when the volume soars; amateurs get greedy and buy at those points.
"RULE NUMBER FIVE: THE MARKET MANIPULATOR WILL ALWAYS TRY TO GET YOU TO BUY AT THE HIGHEST, AND SELL AT THE LOWEST PRICE POSSIBLE."
Just as the manipulator will use every available means to invite you to "the party," he will savagely and brutally drive you away from "his stock" when he has fleeced you. The first falsehood you assume is that the stock promoter WANTS you to make a bundle by investing in his company. So begins a string of lies that run for as long as your stomach can take it.
You will get the first clue that "you have been had" when the stock stalls at the higher level. Somehow, it ran out of steam and you are not sure why. Well, it ran out of steam because the market manipulator stopped running it up. It's over inflated and he can't convince more people to buy. The volume dries up while the share price seems to stall. LOOK AT THE TRADING VOLUME, NOT THE SHARE PRICE! When earlier, there may have been 500,000 shares trading each day for eight out of 12 trading days (as in the case of Software Control Systems), now the volume has slipped to 100,000 shares (or so) daily. There are some buyers there, enough for the manipulator to continue dumping his paper, but only so long as he can enlist one or more individuals/services to bang his drum.
He may continue feeding the promo guys a string of "promises" and "good news down the road." (Believe me, this HAS happened to me!) But, when the news finally arrives, the stock price goes THUD! This is entirely orchestrated by a market manipulator. You'll see it in the trading volume, most of which is CONTRIVED. A market manipulator will have various brokers buying and selling the stock to give the APPEARANCE of increasing volume and price so that YOU do start chasing it higher.
At some point during the stall stage, investors get fed up with the non-performance of the stock. It drifts for a while, in a steady retreat, with perhaps a short-lived spike in price and volume (the final signal that the manipulator has finally offloaded ALL of his paper). Then, the stock comes tumbling down -- having lost ALL of the earlier share appreciation.
Sometimes, with the more cruel manipulators, they will throw in a little false hope... giving you a little more rope so they can better hang you. Just after a severe drop, there will be a "bottom fishing" announcement which sends the share price up a bit on high volume, rises a little more after that and then continues to drift. Meanwhile, you keep getting "shaken out" through a cruel drip-drip water torture of the share price's slow retreat. Again, virtually every movement is completely orchestrated.
"RULE NUMBER SIX: IF THIS IS A REAL DEAL, THEN YOU ARE LIKELY TO BE THE LAST PERSON TO BE NOT
28.02.2007. (12:37) - - - - - promjene spremljene- uredi komentar - obriši komentar - prijavi ovaj komentar kao spam - zabrani komentiranje autoru ovog komentara- učitavam...
felix...
Like Jesse Livermore wrote, "If there's some easy money lying around, no one is going to force it into your pocket." The same concept can be more clearly understood by watching the tape. When a market manipulator wants you into his stock, you will hear LOUD noises of stock promotion and hype. If you are "in the loop," you will be bombarded from many directions. Similarly, if he wants you out of the stock, then there will be orchestrated rumors being circulated, rapid-fired at you again from many directions. Just as good news may come to you in waves, so will bad news.
You will see evidence of a VERY sharp drop in the share price with HUGE volume. That is you and your buddies running for the exits. If the deal is really for real, the market manipulator wants to get ALL OF YOUR SHARES or as many as he can... and at the lowest price he can. Whereas before, he wanted you IN his market, so he could dump his shares to you at a higher price, NOW when he sees that this deal IS for real, he wants to pay as little as possible for those same shares... YOUR shares which he wants to you part with, as quickly as possible.
The market manipulator will shake you out by DRIVING the price as low as he can. Just as in the "accumulation" stage, he wants to keep everything as quiet as possible so he can snap up as many of the shares for himself, he will NOW turn down, or even turn off, the volume so he can repeat the accumulation phase.
In the mining business, there seems to always be another "area play" around the corner. Just as Voisey's Bay drifted into oblivion, during the fourth quarter of 1995 and early into 1996, the same Voisey Bay "wannabees" began striking deals in Indonesia. Some even used new corporate entities. Same crooks, different shingles. The accumulation phase was TOP SECRET. The noise level was deadingly silent. As soon as the insiders accumulated all their shares, they let YOU in on the secret.
"RULE NUMBER SEVEN: CONVERSELY, YOU WILL OFTEN BE THE LAST TO KNOW WHEN THIS DEAL SHOWS SIGNS OF FAILURE."
Twenty-twenty hindsight will often show you that there was a "little stumble" in the share price, just as the "assays were delayed" or the "deal didn't go through." Manipulators were peeling off their paper to START the downslide. And ACCELERATE it. The quick slide down makes it improbable for your getting out at more than what you originally paid for the stock... and gives you a better reason for holding onto it "a little longer" in case the price rebounds. Then, the drifting stage begins and fear takes over. And unless you have serves of steel and can afford to wait out the manipulator, you will more than likely end up selling out at a cheap price.
For the insider, marketmaker or underwriter is obliged to buy back all of your paper in order to keep his company alive and maintain control of it. The less he has to pay for your paper, the lower his cost will be to commence his stock promotion again... at some future date. Even if his company has no prospects AT ALL, his "shell" of a company has some value (only in that others might want to use that structure so they can run their own stock promotion). So, the manipulator WILL buy back his paper. He just wants to make sure that he pays as little for those shares as possible.
"RULE NUMBER EIGHT: THE MARKET MANIPULATOR WILL COMPEL YOU INTO THE STOCK SO THAT YOU DRIVE UP ITS PRICE SHARES."
Placing a Market Order or Pre-Market Order is an amateur's mistake, typifying the US investor -- one who assumes that thinly traded issues are the same as blue chip stocks, to which they are accustomed. A market manipulator (traders included here) can jack up the share price during your market order and bring you back a confirmation at some preposterous level. The Market Manipulator will use the "tape" against you. He will keep buying up his own paper to keep you reaching for a higher price. He will get in line ahead of you to buy all the shares at the current price and force you to pay MORE for those shares. He will tease you and MAKE you reach for the higher price so you "won't miss out." Miss out on what? Getting your head chopped off, that's what!
One can avoid market manipulation by not buying during the huge price spikes and abnormal trading volumes, also known as chasing the stock to a higher price.
"RULE NUMBER NINE: THE MARKET MANIPULATOR IS WELL AWARE OF THE EMOTIONS YOU ARE EXPERIENCING DURING A RUN UP AND A COLLAPSE AND WILL PLAY YOUR EMOTIONS LIKE A PIANO."
During the run up, you WILL have a rush of greed which compels you to run into the stock. During the collapse, you WILL have a fear that you will lose everything... so you will rush to exit. See how simple it is and how clear a bell it strikes? Don't think this formula isn't tattooed inside the mind of every manipulator. The market manipulator will play you on the way up and play you on the way down. If he does it very well, he will make it look like someone else's fault that you lost money! Promise to fil
28.02.2007. (12:38) - - - - - promjene spremljene- uredi komentar - obriši komentar - prijavi ovaj komentar kao spam - zabrani komentiranje autoru ovog komentara- učitavam...
felix...
You'll rush into the stock. Scare you into losing every penny you have in that stock? You'll run away screaming with horror! And vow to NEVER, ever speculate in such stocks again. But many of you still do.... The manipulator even knows how to bring you back for yet another play.
What actors! No wonder Vancouver is sometimes called "Hollywood North."
"FINAL RULE: A NEW BATCH OF SUCKERS ARE BORN WITH EVERY NEW PLAY."
The Financial Markets are a Cruel, Unkind and Dangerous Playing Field, one place where the newest amateurs are generally fleeced the most brutally.... usually by those who KNOW the above rules.
Just as I have a duty to ensure that each of you understand how this game is played, YOU now have that same duty to guarantee that your fellow speculator understands these rules. Just as I would be a criminal for not making this data known to you, YOU would be just as criminal to keep it a secret. There will always be an unsuspecting, trusting fool whom the rabid dogs will tear to shreds, but it does NOT have to be this way.
IF every reader made this essay broadly known to his friends, acquaintances and family, and they passed it on to their friends, word of mouth could cause many of these market manipulators to pause. IF this effort were done strenuously by many, then perhaps the financial markets could weed out the crooked manipulators and the promoters could bring us more legitimate plays.
The stock markets are a financing tool. The companies BORROW money from you, when you invest or speculate in their companies. They want their share price going higher so they can finance their deal with less dilution of their shares... if they are good guys. But, how would you feel about a friend or family member who kept borrowing money from you and never repaid it? That would be theft, plain and simple. So, a market manipulator is STEALING your money. Don't let him do it anymore. Insist that the company in which you invest be honest or straight... or find another company in which to speculate. Your money talks in LOUDER volumes than any stock promotion scheme. ALWAYS refuse any deal which smells wrong.
Refuse to tolerate the scams prevalent in the financial markets. This can ONLY be accomplished by KNOWING and USING the above rules. Thoroughly COMPLETE your due diligence on a company before risking a dime. Dig up the Insider Reports to find out who is blowing out their paper, how often they are blowing out their paper and whatever happened to their "last play."
Begin to use this as YOUR rule of thumb: If the insider's paper is really worthless, then avoid it. Find another's whose paper DOES hold promise and honest possibilities. In these small cap stock markets, you are investing more in the INDIVIDUAL behind the play, than the "possibility" of the play itself. Ask yourself before speculating: Could I lend this person $5,000 for a year and hope to get it back? If not, then don't! Do it for your own good and the good of everyone else who is so foolish as to speculate in these financial markets!
The truly sane and only somewhat safe solution to all of this: FIND GOOD COMPANIES IN WHICH TO SPECULATE AND GET INTO THEM AT THE GROUND FLOOR LEVEL. Anything else is criminal or stupid. This is a case where there really isn't a gray area. It's either Black or it's White. The company and its management are scamsters or they really intend to bring value to their shareholders.
28.02.2007. (12:38) - - - - - promjene spremljene- uredi komentar - obriši komentar - prijavi ovaj komentar kao spam - zabrani komentiranje autoru ovog komentara- učitavam...
felix...
I to je to uz ad volume dovoljno i previše.Ispričavam se na hrpi komentara pa ako sam pretjerao izbriši...
To JE SVETI GRAL MARKETA ma kako ga neki nazivali,svrstavali pod "iskustvo" i slične bullshite.
Naravno da je potrebno i malo razmisliti,ali ne previše.
Vidimo se u klubu milijardera za desetak godina.
Živjeli dečki!
28.02.2007. (12:42) - - - - - promjene spremljene- uredi komentar - obriši komentar - prijavi ovaj komentar kao spam - zabrani komentiranje autoru ovog komentara- učitavam...
Bundy
Nema frke Felix, ostavit ću do sutra da pročitaju svi koji prate, pa brišem :)
28.02.2007. (21:35) - - - - - promjene spremljene- uredi komentar - obriši komentar - prijavi ovaj komentar kao spam - zabrani komentiranje autoru ovog komentara- učitavam...
contreso
Zakljucak "FIND GOOD COMPANIES IN WHICH TO SPECULATE AND GET INTO THEM AT THE GROUND FLOOR LEVEL" me neodoljivo podsjeca na jednu od prvih knjiga o investiranju koju sam procitao, One Up On Wall Street : How To Use What You Already Know To Make Money In The Market od Peter Lyncha.
U stvarnom zivotu nista lakse nego naci jednu takvu kompaniju. Hahahaha...
Ima bit da je tip dobro popusio, a to i isijava iz cijelog njegovog teksta.
Osobno nevjerujem u teorije zavjere (previse je igraca, netko bi sigurno progovorio za lovu, jer takvim tipovima lova je sve i sve je na prodaju).
Felix, prijatelju moj, volio bih da se varam ali mi se cini da trazis perfektan sistem, da ti svaki trejd donese profit.
Moje trejdersko iskustvo nije veliko, ali sam siguran sam da je nemoguce naci perfektan sistem. Nekad prije si pisao o tome da namjestanja ima, sto nije cudno jer veliki igraci cine 70 - 80% dnevnog volumena (ako me memorija nevara). Nevjerovatno mi zvuci da veliki igraci zive od nas malih investitora (koji cinimo 20-30% ukupnog dnevnog volumena). Koliko novaca mi moramo upumpati u sistem da bi oni prosjecno zaradjivali godisnje oko 10%. Nije li onda svako od nas milijarder?
Kazu da je izuzetno opasno za portfolio kad pomislis da imas SVETI GRAL? Sve je relativno, zar ne?
Ovo, zivjeli decki, nezelim protumaciti da ti sada nas napustas i da odlazis u ilegalu.
Jos uvijek dugujem osvrt na ad volumen, gledat cu to odraditi ovaj vikend. Nisam bas siguran da je 100% siguran.
01.03.2007. (08:17) - - - - - promjene spremljene- uredi komentar - obriši komentar - prijavi ovaj komentar kao spam - zabrani komentiranje autoru ovog komentara- učitavam...
felix...
Naravno da nije 100% siguran.Ali je dovoljan za konstantnu profitabilnost,a to je po meni dovoljno za titulu "sveti gral" haha.Naravno da je i flexibilan,treba dobro protumačiti signale i kroz dulje vrijeme pratiti dionicu kako bi mogli tok kapitala usporediti sa vijestima o kompaniji na koju se odnose te sa kretanjima marketa.Uz to ostaje puno tehničkih problema,pogotovo u opcijama gdje na istim temeljima netko profitira,a drugi izgubi zbog lošeg planiranja,odabira strikea,vremena doi exp.,exit pointa,floating stopova itd. itd..Međutim to ne znači da je "sistem" iako ga ne bih tako nazvao jer puno ovisi o procjeni i iskustvu,odnosno nema univerzalnih signala za ulaz/izlaz u točno određenom trenutku.
01.03.2007. (10:44) - - - - - promjene spremljene- uredi komentar - obriši komentar - prijavi ovaj komentar kao spam - zabrani komentiranje autoru ovog komentara- učitavam...
felix...
Evo ako pogledaš relativno svježi primjer sa AAPLeom,možeš vidjeti da je vijest o jobsovim "opcijama" bila plasirana neposredno prije novog gadgeta s ciljem da se sruši cijena i pokupuje jeftino prije uzleta cijene.Čak su i OptionMasteru koji stalno prati tu kompaniju zamazali oči pa je propustio pomak prema gore.Uz to su callovi bili precijenjeni pomoću visoke i.v. kaj se često poklapa sa povećanjem prije earningsa,pa im je i to išlo na ruku.Moglo se zaključiti vrlo lagano da će AAPL ići gore,a koja vijest će ga "podići" ionako je manje važno. Najobičnija i lako protumačljiva manipulacija ako imamo mogućnost praćenja ulaza i izlaza kapitala u dionicu.Također je i sa google earningsima sve bilo predvidljivo.Došlo je do pražnjenja prije earningsa uz rast cijene.Naravno da je cijena nakon objave zarada pala.Zamisli samo što bi se dogodilo da su takve zarade bile objavljne u neko vrijeme prije dok je ulaz kapitala nadmašivao cijenu..naravno da bi u biti pozitivne zarade iznad očekivanja podigle cijenu.Ovako slušamo naknadna sranja od vijesti u smislu ..kao zarade jesu bile iznad očekivanja,ALI premalo da bi se cijena mogla održati na istoj razini..ha ha ha.Međutim stvari su nam otežali ponovno dizanjem i.v. u nebesa tako da su nakon earningsa povećanjem volatilnosti putevi izgubili na vrijednosti zbog naglog SMANJENJA? i.v. čime su potpuno offsetali sav profit za longove uslijed pomaka,pa i više od toga...probojem strikea na niže putevi su još izgubili na vrijednosti!!!Sve su to MANIPULACIJE i na njima se zasnivaju sva kratkoročna gibanja marketa.Problem je u tome što se taj vremenski odsječak sve više produžuje,čak do 2-3 tjedna ovisno o potrebama manipulatora.Vijesti su samo posljedica...Uostalom koga briga za naknadne vijesti:)
01.03.2007. (11:13) - - - - - promjene spremljene- uredi komentar - obriši komentar - prijavi ovaj komentar kao spam - zabrani komentiranje autoru ovog komentara- učitavam...
contreso
OK. Krenimo sa “…vijest o jobsovim "opcijama" bila plasirana neposredno prije novog gadgeta… Felix.” . Daklem govoris o decembru 2006.
Sto da se radi?
Tehnicki gledano.
Cijena dodiruje donju BB traku. Pozicija SHORT. Max zarada 7 points.
Cijena ide ispod 50 MA. Pozicija SHORT. Max zarada 7 points.
MACD bearish crossover pocetkom decembra. Max zarada 12 points.
RSI ispod 50. Max zarada 7 points.
Stohastic ispod 50. Max zarada 9 points.
Drugim rijecima, mene kao tehnicara ne interesiraju unutrasnje stvari kompanije. Graf* je moj GRAL. Ne interesira me trac, samo graf i trenutni trend. Jednostavno , zar ne?
Neznam na koji pomak prema gore mislis kad govoris o AAPLeu. Pogledajmo sto se dogadjalo 9 Januara, 2007.(ako ciljas na taj dan)
Mcworld konferencija (odrzava se svake godine u San Franciscu) nije bila nikakva tajna. Znalo se za nju tjednima unaprijed.
To je na CNBCu bila udarna vijest, i svi su cekali sto ce se tu dogoditi.
Ono sto meni nije jasno je kako uopce mozemo razgovarati o zamazanim ocima imajuci u vidu ovaj graf.
Ovo je transcript sa Mcworlda 2007 (govori Steve Jobs):
“9:42am - "Well today, we're introducing THREE revolutionary new products. The first one is a widescreen ipod with touch controls" The crowd goes wild. "The second is a revolutionary new mobile phone."
9:43am - "And the third is a breakthrough internet communications device." Tepid response on that last one, but he almost got a standing ovation on the phone. '
"An iPod, a phone, an internet mobile communicator. An iPod, a phone, an internet mobile communicator.... these are NOT three separate devices!"
"And we are calling it iPhone!"
"Today Apple is going to reinvent the phone. And here it is..." It's a gag image, cheers.
9:44am - "Before we get into it, let me talk about a category of things ... the most advanced phones are called smartphones. They typically involve a phone, have plastic little keyboards on them, the problem is they're not so smart and they're not so easy to use. If you make a biz school 101 graph, cellphones are at the bottom... smartphones are a little smarter, but they're harder to use."
Taj dan (Jan 09) sam bio doma. AAPLe je doslovno eksplodirao oko 9:45. Sve da se nije uslo u trejd odmah po objavi vijesti (iPhone) na cijeni oko $87. Moglo se uci 45 minuta kasnije na cijeni od $90 te jos uvijek zaraditi 2 pointa do kraja dana. O kakvom mazanju ociju mi tu zapravo govorimo.
Ono sto budi moju sumnju kad vec spominjes OptionMastera, je, da je on tako reci ukrao trejd brokerima zahvaljujuci Marijinoj brbljavosti. A ovo mu je promaklo? Pogotovo jos imajuci u vidu da on a i velika vecina vas koji ga pratite (nista lose u tome) se deklarirate kao NEWS trejderi (netko je to nekad napisao). Ako ovo nije bila vijest, koja je cak i mjesecima unaprijed bila najavljivana, onda ja neznam sto je vijest. Zbilja me cudi da ste svi vi ostali paralizirani ovom vijescu. Toliko o tome.
Citirat cu te:
“Sjećam se jedne OptionMasterove izjave o skupoći/jeftinoći opcija...u smislu da on to procijeni otprilike kao što na placu procjenjujemo skupoću povrća.Ne sumnjam da je tako,ali kako je došao do toga?Iskustvom!Zbilja poučno.Sve mi je bilo jasno,kao da nisam ništa pitao:)
“Međutim stvari su nam otežali ponovno dizanjem i.v. u nebesa tako da su nakon earningsa povećanjem volatilnosti putevi izgubili na vrijednosti zbog naglog SMANJENJA? i.v. čime su potpuno offsetali sav profit za longove uslijed pomaka,pa i više od toga...probojem strikea na niže putevi su još izgubili na vrijednosti!!!Sve su to MANIPULACIJE i na njima se zasnivaju sva kratkoročna gibanja marketa.Problem je u tome što se taj vremenski odsječak sve više produžuje,čak do 2-3 tjedna ovisno o potrebama manipulatora.”
Ako OM, nesumljivo najiskusniji od svih nas koji se tu vrtimo to kaze, pa jos nadodam li tome manipulacije o kojima govoris…
Sto mi je zakljuciti?
Opcije se trejdaju na osjecaj i velika je vjerovatnost da cu biti izmanipuliran te sve izgubiti.
Sad se ja mislim, OM je iskusniji od mene a ja sigurno nemam taj dar koji on ima, veliki igraci ce me navuci na tanak led, pa ZASTO UOPCE TREJDATI OPCIJE (OTM prvenstveno)?
Dr. Alexander Elder o opcijama:” Options, are hope business. I am a professional-I sell hope.
Many beginners buy calls because they can’t afford stocks.
Successful stock and futures traders sometimes use options to reduce risks or protect profits.
Serious traders buy options rarely and only in special situations.
Greed is the engine of option-selling propaganda.”
Kao sto rekoh prije, kupujem samo deep ITM opcije sa minimalnom vremenskom vrijednoscu.
Interesantno je to da ima vrlo malo blogova koji pisu iskljucivo o opcijama. A jos kad bi trejdove opisivali, sto, i kako? Znali itko za koji?
02.03.2007. (04:50) - - - - - promjene spremljene- uredi komentar - obriši komentar - prijavi ovaj komentar kao spam - zabrani komentiranje autoru ovog komentara- učitavam...
felix...
Ok Contresso, ti trejdaj po grafovima i linijama,a mene osim golih linija zanima kaj stoji iza njih kako bih dobio bolje prognostičke rezultate.
Graf je samo posljedica.
Moram ti priznati da sam na poslu svakodnevno na kompu suočen sa real time grafovima na par monitora.Kada ne bih razmišljao što stoji iza real time grafova i ravnao se samo po njima bez razmišljanja...napravio bih ogromnu štetu ili u najgorem slučaju buuum!Grafovi su samo zakašnjela posljedica mojih poteza koji mi pomažu u orijentaciji i donošenju odluka za buduće poteze.Razumiješ?
Slično je po meni i u ovome poslu!
Ako ti se opcije čine nesavladive pa nemoj ih trejdati.
Ja pak sam se orjentirao samo i isključivo na opcije.Nema šanse da ikada protrejdam ijednu dionicu.
Tehnička analiza je za mene gotova stvar i tu se više nema kaj novoga izmisliti,osim kombiniranih i inovativnih pristupa.Tu ne podrazumijevam različite kombinacije već poznatoga jer su sve one više manje na isti kalup.
Sve se zasniva na određivanju trenda,buy sell signalima indikatora,ukupnom volumenu.Za mene nedovoljno i potrošeno.
02.03.2007. (20:28) - - - - - promjene spremljene- uredi komentar - obriši komentar - prijavi ovaj komentar kao spam - zabrani komentiranje autoru ovog komentara- učitavam...
felix...
MOJ graf za AAPL.Meni je ovdje baš sve jasno,
Rvo i original posta iz tog vremena prije objave vijesti o novom "čudu" od mobitela.."Pogledajte kakvo iskrcavanje na AAPL!!!
Ugrubo...sav kapital koji je uložen u 95 dana u intervalu pri cijenama od "40%($61)" do "100%($91)" "prodan" je u 20ak dana po cijenama u intervalu od "100%($91)" do "75%($81)".Ugrubo je zarada min. čistih "35%(cca $14 x VOL.)"!!!
S druge strane teško da će cijena ići dolje u skorije vrijeme...pogledajte ulaz kapitala od 25% u intervalu rasta cijena od samo 10ak%,što prejudicira porast cijene.
Ako cijena uskoro padne to bi značilo GUBITAK za big money,a nisam siguran da oni ne znaju kaj rade i ne raspolažu informacijama o posljednjoj aferi..."
Evo,ako je to komplicirano,onda ne zanm kaj nije.
02.03.2007. (20:34) - - - - - promjene spremljene- uredi komentar - obriši komentar - prijavi ovaj komentar kao spam - zabrani komentiranje autoru ovog komentara- učitavam...
felix...
Ispravljeni link
02.03.2007. (20:35) - - - - - promjene spremljene- uredi komentar - obriši komentar - prijavi ovaj komentar kao spam - zabrani komentiranje autoru ovog komentara- učitavam...
contreso
Citirat cu Murphya iz knjige TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF THE FINANCIAL MARKETS: “ If demand exceeds supply, price should rise. If supply exceeds demand, prices should fall. This action is the basis of all economic and fundamental forecasting. The technician then turn this statement around to arrive at the conclusion that if price are rising, for whatever the specific reasons, demand must supply and fundamentals must be bullish. If prices fall, the fundamentals must be bearish….After all, the technician indirectly studying fundamentals…The charts do not in themselves cause markets to move up or down. They simply reflects the bullish or bearish psychology of the marketplace.
As a rule, chartist do not concern themselves with the reasons why price rise or fall…He or she just doesn’t believe that knowing what those reasons are is necessary in the forecasting process.”
Nemam uopce iluziju da mogu uci na pocetku trenda ili izaci pri samom kraju istog, sto i nije moj cilj. Kao sto kaze narodna poslovica; KUD SVI TURCI TUD I MALI MUJO ili Wall St. inacica TREND IS YOUR FRIEND.
Pustiti cu da management, ekonomija, fundamentalisti… pokrenu cijenu, a onda ce se gledati prikljuciti tom smijeru.
Mozda sam prije krivo razumio da si trejder ili bar naginjes trejdanju. Fundamentalana analize se vezuje uz investitore, sto je mozda razlog ovog malog nesporazuma. Mada OTM opcije (a pogotovo neposredno pred expiraciju, zapravo vrlo spekulativan pristup po mome vidjenju) nikako nemogu svrstati u investitorsku tehniku.
Kao potvrdu o savladivosti opcija uzet cu tvoja dva citata iz mog proslog komentara (plac-povrce, IV-manipulacija).
Sad kad smo se malo zagrijali predjimo na posao.:-))
Volumenski A/D.
Govorim kao ADVOCATUS DIABOLI, i razumi me tako.
Ako se dobro sjecam, cijenu dionice, njen A/D unosis u Excel. Obe vrijednosti unosis na graf u postotnom iznosu. Idemo sad na AAPL graf.
Molit cu te da pogledas moj prvi graf.
Povukao si dvije support linije na A/D (crne). Zasto nisi povukao sve ostale moguce support i resistance linije na A/D? Kako odredjujes koji vrhovi su upotrebljivi a koji ne?
Sto zamjeras ovim mogucim linijama koje sam povukao na tvom grafu? Mozes li svaku strelicu (boju) komentirati posebno, ako treba naravno?
Graf drugi.
Na srockchartsu koristeci tvoj metod za AAPLa.
Bez da ulazim dublje za primjetiti je da je A/D linija manje nervozna. Trejd pod brojem 4 bi bio katastrofalan gubitak bez stop ordera. Trejdovi 5 i 6 su ujedno trejdovi sa tvog grafa i mislim da su dosta dobro uhvaceni na ovom grafu.
Graf treci.
Ovdje sam plavim linijama povezao vrhove cijena. Zaprepascujuca je podudarnost tvojih i mojih linija. Linije su nam simetricne. Nezelimo li cjepidlaciti, cijena i A/D se krecu uporedo. Cijena brze raste od A/Da, dok A/D prze ponire od cijene.
Tvoji i moji buy/sell signali su skoro identicni (mozda dan razlike sudeci po grafu).
Iz svega navedenog mogu zakljuciti slijedece.
-Velika podudarnost linije cijene i A/D linije.
-Stockcharts graf uspjesno prati tvoj sistem (mada samo jedan primjer)
-Povezujuci susjedne vrhove dobili bi puno trejdova (ne nuzno dobrih, troskovi trejdanja bi znatno opteretili portfelj)
-Analiza je vremenski vrlo zahtjevna (unosenje podataka za svaku od dionica koju pratimo),
Na osnovu AAPLovog grafa, izlazi da je najbolje koristiti staru oprobanu i dokazanu tehniku povlacenja support i resistance linija. Trejd signal se javlja kad cijena probije tu liniju (naravno uz dodatne pokazatelje). Ovim nacinom izbjegli bi nepotrebno kompliciranje i dupliranje signala.
Tako ja to vidim na osnovu onog sto si mi ponudio.
Jedva cekam tvoj odgovor.
P.S. nebi bilo lose da ovu raspravu prebacimo na friskije datume jer ce ovaj Bundyev post uskoro isklizati u arhivu.
04.03.2007. (06:14) - - - - - promjene spremljene- uredi komentar - obriši komentar - prijavi ovaj komentar kao spam - zabrani komentiranje autoru ovog komentara- učitavam...
felix...
Prvi graf...odlično si povukao linije,ali ne uzimam ih u obzir jer su obje preblizu jedna drugoj i nisu blizu vrha ili dna.
Drugi graf...nije isti kao moj,ako ne primjećuješ ne pokazuje pravo stanje ulaza izlaza kapitala,pogotovo pri kraju grafa gdje je ulaz kapitala više nego dvostruko viši(zeleno) od porasta cijene.
Treći graf..dolazi do razilaženja u smjeru.Ovaj primjer nije primjer razilaženja,već razlike u ulazu kapitala u odnosu na cijenu.
Ako baš hoćeš primjer razilaženja pogledaj SOV chart.
Pozdrav ,žurim ,a kasnije ću još ponešto napisati.
04.03.2007. (15:38) - - - - - promjene spremljene- uredi komentar - obriši komentar - prijavi ovaj komentar kao spam - zabrani komentiranje autoru ovog komentara- učitavam...
felix...
Uglavnom to kaj si našao na stockchartsu je potpuno drigačije od mojih proračuna i NE pokazuje stvarno stanje ulaza/izlaza kapitala.Pogledaj na početnome usponu koliko je "ulaz" na stchartsu niži od realnog,odnosno koliko je zel.crta ispod cijene,a nije u stvarnosti...
04.03.2007. (15:41) - - - - - promjene spremljene- uredi komentar - obriši komentar - prijavi ovaj komentar kao spam - zabrani komentiranje autoru ovog komentara- učitavam...
felix...
SOV CHART
NIJE UVIJEK STVAR SAMO U RAZILAŽENJU SMJERA VEĆ JE BITNIJE RAZILAŽENJE"VELIČINA"...,A TO NA STOCKCHARTU NIJE NI PRIBLIŽNO TOČNO POKAZANO!
04.03.2007. (15:43) - - - - - promjene spremljene- uredi komentar - obriši komentar - prijavi ovaj komentar kao spam - zabrani komentiranje autoru ovog komentara- učitavam...
contreso
Dok cekam daljnja pojasnjenja evo jos nekoliko pitanja na osnovu dobivenog odgovora.
Nekuzim ovo,"...obje preblizu jedna drugoj i nisu blizu vrha ili dna." Na koju strelicu mislis?
Dali hoces reci da linija cijene i A/D linija nesmiju biti blizu jedna druge u trenutku presijecanaj trend linije? Koliko min moraju biti udaljeno jedna od druge za pouzdan signal (u%)?
Neposredno pred buy i sell signal (za AAPL) u pravu si kad kazes da je A/D linija napravila puno veci pomak nego sama cijena. Koliki min taj pomak mora biti za kvalitetan trejd signal?
Mozes li u nekoliko tocaka definirati svoj sistem?
Molit cu te da pogledas slijedeca dva trejding prozora sa opcijama za AAPL kako ih daje TradeStation. Stavio sam samo call opcije zbog preglednosti. Prozori 1 i 2. Koji stupci bi bili vazni onome tko iskljucivo trejda ITM opcije?
04.03.2007. (19:31) - - - - - promjene spremljene- uredi komentar - obriši komentar - prijavi ovaj komentar kao spam - zabrani komentiranje autoru ovog komentara- učitavam...
contreso
Slabo se vide prozori, evo ponovo.
Prozor 1. Prozor 2.
04.03.2007. (19:38) - - - - - promjene spremljene- uredi komentar - obriši komentar - prijavi ovaj komentar kao spam - zabrani komentiranje autoru ovog komentara- učitavam...
felix...
Gle Contreso.Moj proračun se temelji na ulazu/izlazu kapitala kroz neko vremensko razdoblje,najčešće za vremenski odsječak koristim30,60,90 do 120 dana kako bih stekao potpuniju sliku i izabrao najprikladniji graf.Iskreno ne znam da li negdje na webu prodaju ovakve chartove,što je moguće,ali na ideju sam došao sam.Graf za 200 dana će se itekako razlikovati od onoga za 90 iz razloga što se mjeri ulaz izlaz kapitala od početnoga datuma u odnosu na cijenu.Mene ne zanimaju dugoročne prognoze,već tražim brzi volatilni veći pomak kao posljedicu relativno kratkotrajnog razilaženja.Nije isti obični volumenski ad koji se izračunava po generalno +/- volumenu ovisno o rastu ili padu cijene taj dan.Poznato je da veliki često kupuju za vrijeme rasta,a prodaju za vrijeme pada cijene,pa tako u cjenovno negativnim danima ulaz kapitala može biti pozitivan i obrnuto.To nećeš naći na stockchartsu niti igdje.Deplasirano je sada govoriti o potrebnoj udaljenosti linije u % jer se ona razlikuje od slučaja do slučaja,a također i od vremenskog intervala u kojem promatramo,ali što je udaljenost veća dionica je u većoj neravnoteži pa je veći i nagli pomak daleko izvjesniji.Nešto slično poput manje vrijednosti signala ako se ne radi o trendu u klasičnoj TA.Dakle ako su linije količine kapitala koji je ušao i izašao u dionicu blizu linije cijene gledajući relativno prema grafu u vremenkom intervalu,tada možemo zaključiti da je dionica "u ravnoteži" i neće doći do većih pomaka u nijednom smjeru,pa takve signale(strelice ne razmatram,osim ako one nisu u samom klimaxu,na vrhu cijene i ulaza kapitala gdje je vrlo izvjesna jača korekcija.Moramo promatrati dionicu u cjelini i kroz dulje vrijeme kroz prizmu earningsa,vijesti...jer je većina njih pomalo specifična,poput googla npr.
Zato je odgovor da ne mogu u nekoliko točaka definirati svoj sistem,a postaje mi jasno zašto OptionMaster ne može napisati konkretni "recept" za svoj stil trejdanja jer se više oslanja na specifično analitičko razmišljanje odnosno iskustvo.
Što se tiče ITM opcija,ne razumijem pitanje.Prvo nije mi jasno zašto bi se netko ograničio isključivo samo na ITM opcije.Imaju nekih prednosti kao trejdanje neposredno prije exp.,ali sve ovisi o riziku vs vjerojatnosti....Opcije bliže ATM u imaju višu deltu od onih udaljenijih...,pa je i posljedično tome gubitak/dobitak ali i rizik da propadnu u otm veći od udaljenijih strikeova što je logično i bez brojčanih podatakaSvi podaci u tablicama se podrazumijevaju ako razumijemo bit opcija i ne znam zašto bi pridavali veću pažnju ijednome podatku osim I.V. jer oni proističu iz samih opcija.Važna je i IV,ALI BIH JE RADIJE PROMATRAO GRAFIČKI U DULJEM VREMENSKOM INTERVALU NPR.PRIJE EARNINGSA DA BIH STEKAO SUD O PRECIJENJENOSTI OPCIJA .Prije svega najvažniji je risk graf i procjena vjerojatnosti smjera i profita...pročitaj moj post o tome jer mislim da ćeš naći uopćene odgovore tamo jer je točno određene NEMOGUĆE dati bez analize kompletnoga trejda.
04.03.2007. (21:00) - - - - - promjene spremljene- uredi komentar - obriši komentar - prijavi ovaj komentar kao spam - zabrani komentiranje autoru ovog komentara- učitavam...
felix...
Zakaj je deplasirano govoriti o udaljenostima?Između ostaloga i zbog količine samoga uloženog kapitala,a to itekako ovisi i o cijeni dionice te o volumenu i kapitalizaciji.Nije isto ako dolazi do većeg razilaženja u primjeru neke jeftine dionice pri niskom volumenu ili samo naizgled manje razilaženje NA PRIMJERU SKUPIH DIONICA,GDJE SU ULOŽENE KOLIČINE KAPITALA KUDIKAMO VEĆE(pa imaju puno veću "$težinu$" unatoč "manjem" linijskom razilaženju.To ti je slično kao i volatilnost,gdje su pri small ili micro cap dionicama volatilnosti u pravilu puno više od big cap,ali su zato vrlo lako manipulativne sa malim iznosima kapitala(zato uključujemo i volumen trgovanja u procjenu).Također razilaženje treba promatrati u svjetlu ukupne market kapitalizacije,pa ako su dolarski iznosi u odnosu prema kapitalizaciji u većem postotku imaju veću težinu od onih u manjem neovisno o samoj količini nesrazmjera uloženog kapitala i cijene.
Kada govorimo o razilaženju,nije nužno da se razilaze u smjeru.Cijena i ad mogu se kretati i u istom smjeru,ali razilaženje pritom može biti veliko...npr cijena raste puno sporije od uloženog kapitala i obrnuto.Sve je to RAZILAŽENJE ,a istismjerna razilaženja mogu biti "jača" od "kontrasmjernih".
Moram li spomenuti da je normalno da grafovi na različitim vremenskim intervalima izgledaju drugačije iz jednostavnog razloga što početnim datumom grafa cijena i ad "kreću od nule".Odnosi cijene i uloženoga kapitala su za svaki vremenski interval RAZLIČITI..jednostavno,zar ne?Zato promatram različite duljine kako bih izabrao vremenski odsječak koji mi najbolje odgovara i stekao potpuniju sliku.Nešto poput promatranja od dugoročnih prema kratkoročnim chartovima kako bih dobio sliku o tome radi li se na kratkoročnijim chartovima o ev. korekciji ili pak se slijedi glavni trend...Kako ti se sada čini,obične dvije linije,a toliko bih o njima mogao pisati i pisati,koliko korisnih podataka i zaključaka se iz njih može izvući...još ako ih promatramo u svjetlu vijesti,jer često prejudiciraju vijest koja će se tek pojaviti,makar ne znam o čemu se radi I NIJE MI VAŽNO HOĆE LI SE RADITI O NOVOM PROIZVODU,ZARADAMA,SUDSKIM PRESUDAMA......ALI ZATO TO ZNA KRUPNI KAPITAL I SHODNO TOME ULAŽE?
Jednostavno se ukrcaš u vlak kojim upravljaju i nema šanse da odeš u pogrešnom sjeru..haha!
05.03.2007. (17:01) - - - - - promjene spremljene- uredi komentar - obriši komentar - prijavi ovaj komentar kao spam - zabrani komentiranje autoru ovog komentara- učitavam...
contreso
@ Felix. Ima previse kontradiktornih stavova u tvojim komentarima da se cak brinem. No, necu o tome.
Cini se da upadas u klasicnu klopku, naime, analiza grafa postaje previse subjektivna. Stara je istina, da dva citaca grafova nikada nece dati isto tumacenje. Jos ako k tome nadodas earningse, mikro i makro stanje ekonomije, politicku sitoaciju, sektore i industrije koje padaju ili rastu te jos hrpu toga. Jasno je da cemo se tesko sloziti kuda ce ta dionica! Iz jednostavnog razloga sto ces ti jednoj vrsti informacija dati vece znacenje a ja mozda drugoj, a sto ce na sve to reci Bundy?
Drugo, kazes: “Mene ne zanimaju dugoročne prognoze,već tražim brzi volatilni veći pomak kao posljedicu relativno kratkotrajnog razilaženja.” Ima li smisla dionicu analizirati kao investitor a onda je brzo protrejdati??
Mozda ce me tvoji real time primjeri razuvjeriti. Pozdrav.
06.03.2007. (08:20) - - - - - promjene spremljene- uredi komentar - obriši komentar - prijavi ovaj komentar kao spam - zabrani komentiranje autoru ovog komentara- učitavam...
felix...
Pa ako investitori koriste time frame od 30,60,90,120,200...dana onda ja jesam investitor,ha ha.Čovječe pa u tome i je kvaka..kako misliš da bi se veliki kapital izvukao iz dionice uz istovremeni puno maji pad ili čak rast cijene i obratno,nego dugoročnije,ako 30,60 i 90 dana tebi uopće izgleda dugoročno. Ako trejdaš i swing moraš pogledati dugoročnije chartove iz razloga da znaš jel se radi o korekciji ili nastavku trenda...naravno da ti je isplativije ići na nastavak trenda jer retracement je slabiji od pomaka u smjeru trenda.Nema tu subjektivnosti.Jednostavno se nećeš potruditi shvatiti,ali to je tvoj problem:)Razmisli još jednom.Sve sam točno,nedvosmisleno i nekontradiktorno objasnio...možda samo da pokušaj sve promatrati u dolarskoj vrijednosti...isto kao što veliki ulažu 500 milijuna u big cap,za te novce mogu kupiti 100 micro capova ili nekoliko desetaka small... i ti me sad pitaš koji bi razmak u % trebao biti između linija...potpuno krivi pristup u startu...lova je lova,a razmak ovisi i o veličini dionice,zbog količine kapitala!Ili ako se veliki počnu prazniti 30ak dana prije objave earningsa,naravno polako da ne sruše cijenu,a cijena čak i raste,kaj misliš koji će rezultati earningsa biti objavljeni?I tebi sad nije jasno zakaj sam nadodao "hrpu" toga,neđu njima i earningse?Pa earningsi su klimax na kojem će doći do naglog "uravnoteženja" dionice kako bi mogli započeti novi ciklus manipulacija i trejdanja po insiderskim informacijama nakon što cijena naglo padne pa je oni ponovno kupe i "ispod razine".Razilaženje ne može trajati vječno,a objava bilo kakvih vijesti na temelju kojih insider informacija je do razilaženja i došlo je također KLIMAX,samo je za razliku od earningsa teže procijeniti timing!Zašto klimax?Pa on je dobrodošao velikom kapitalu zbog pohlepe ili panike uslijed vijesti pa mogu prodati na višim levelima ili kupiti na nižim od projiciranih...
Zajebi tu sad nekakva investitorska i kojekava suhoparna pravila i definicije trejdanja.
Uzmi ili ostavi:)
Pozdrav!
06.03.2007. (22:54) - - - - - promjene spremljene- uredi komentar - obriši komentar - prijavi ovaj komentar kao spam - zabrani komentiranje autoru ovog komentara- učitavam...