VRHUNAC ZA S&P 500 ?

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06.02.2007., utorak

Prenosim besplatni komentar sa stranice Amateur investor
The Dow and S&P 500 made new 52 week highs this week while the Nasdaq lagged behind and is still below its 52 week high. Meanwhile the S&P 500 has had a positive gain for 8 consecutive months in a row which is a rare occurrence.

The table below shows all of the periods since 1960 that the S&P 500 closed with a positive gain for 6 consecutive months or more along with the return during that period and the drop that occurred the next month after the consecutive month streak ended. As you can see there has only been 6 times since 1960 that the S&P 500 has had a positive gain for 8 months or more. In fact the only time the S&P 500 had 9 consecutive months in a row with a positive gain was from August of 1982 through April of 1983. As mentioned above currently the S&P 500 has had a positive gain for the last 8 months which began in June and as my research shows the odds of seeing the S&P 500 ending with a positive gain 9 months in a row isn't very high so we shall see if the month of February will end the month with a negative return.

Consecutive Time Total % Drop Maximum
+ Months Period % Gain Next Month Drop
7 11/60-5/61 22.5% -2.9% -3.1%
8 12/63-7/64 12.9% -1.6% -2.2%
6 12/71-5/72 15.7% -2.2% -2.5%
6 1/75-6/75 34.1% -6.8% -7.3%
8 4/80-11/80 32.9% -3.4% -10.8%
9 8/82-4/83 44.5% -1.2% -2.9%
6 10/85-3/86 27.9% -1.4% -5.3%
7 11/90-5/91 25.5% -4.8% -5.6%
7 9/92-3/93 8.8% -2.5% -4.3%
8 12/94-7/95 21.7% 0.0% -1.6%
8 11/95-6/96 14.5% -4.6% -9.5%
6 11/97-4/98 20.0% -1.9% -3.4%
6 3/03-8/03 18.6% -1.2% -1.8%
8 6/06-1/07 13.2% ? NA

- 09:53 - Komentari (2) - Isprintaj - #

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