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16.11.2007., petak

Prepare for $2 Trillion Lending Shock

Futuresi su danas u plusu, ali je izašla vrlo loša procjena GS-a.
To bi moglo vrlo loše djelovati na market u slijedećem razdoblju, ako
se kriza počne odmotavati na ovaj način:

Prepare for $2 Trillion Lending Shock: Goldman
Topics:Mortgages | Real Estate | Interest Rates | Inflation | Federal Reserve | Federal Budget (U.S.) | Economy (Global) | Economy (U.S.)
Companies:Goldman Sachs Group Inc
By Reuters | 16 Nov 2007 | 07:51 AM ET


The impact of the U.S. mortgage market crisis on the underlying economy could be "dramatic" as leveraged investors may need to scale back lending by up to $2 trillion, according to investment bank Goldman Sachs.

AP

In a report dated Nov. 15, Goldman's
Goldman Sachs Group Inc
GS
chief U.S. economist Jan Hatzius said a "back-of-the-envelope" estimate of credit losses on outstanding mortgages, based on past default experience, was around $400 billion.

But unlike stock market losses, which are typically absorbed by "long-only" investors, this mortgage-related hit is mostly borne by leveraged investors such as banks, broker-dealers, hedge funds and government-sponsored enterprises.

And leveraged investors react to losses by actively cutting back lending to keep capital ratios from falling -- A bank targeting a constant capital ratio of 10 percent, for example, would need to shrink its balance by $10 for every $1 in losses.

"The macroeconomic consequences could be quite dramatic," Hatzius said in the note to clients. "If leveraged investors see $200 billion of the $400 billion aggregate credit loss, they might need to scale back their lending by $2 trillion."

"This is a large shock," he said, adding the number equates to 7 percent of total debt owed by U.S. non-financial sectors.

Hatzius said such a shock could produce a "substantial recession" if it occurred over one year, or a long period of sluggish growth if it occurred over two-to-four years.

One of a number of caveats outlined in the report was that baseline economic forecasts may already include significant reductions in the pace of mortgage lending.

But the conclusion remained a gloomy one regardless. "The likely mortgage credit losses pose a significantly bigger macroeconomic risk than generally recognized," he wrote.

"While the uncertainty is large, the associated downward pressure on lending raises the risk of significant weakness in economic activity."
- 15:24 - Komentari (1) - Isprintaj - #

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