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13.09.2007., četvrtak

Gartman On Trading Oil At $80

Oil touched a record $80 a barrel and the dollar sunk to a record low versus the euro Wednesday. Also, wheat hit a record and gold continued to hold well above $700. How do you trade these currency and commodity milestones?
Strategic investor Dennis Gartman, author of The Gartman Letter, joins the panel for this conversation. Here are excerpts from what was said.
Why did oil jump over 80?

“The demand for oil is continuing to push oil prices up,” says Gartman. OPEC raised production but didn’t raise it all that much..."

He adds, “Demand is strong not just in the United States but everywhere…quite frankly I’m not sure where it will stop … the trend is up.”

Are you more inclined to buy oil now?

“I am long crude oil,” says Gartman. “(I do that by being) long Athabasca (ABM) and Suncor (SU)… and I see every reason to be that way.”

He adds “I’m not more excited to see crude above $80 – that’s more psychological… actually (the price) frightens me a bit because the public tends to want to buy things when you go onto the new number. But the trend is up.”

Is the imploding dollar the driver?

“Well the dollar’s weakness continues and the market is saying it knows The Fed is going to ease monetary policy,” says Gartman. “The question is, more than 25 basis points? I think not.”

Dylan Ratigan reminds investors if they want to get long the yen the ETF is CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY),and for the euro it is CurrencyShares Euro Trust (FXE).

$80 OIL, RECORD LOW DOLLAR, STOCKS QUIET

The headline: Oil Touches Record Intraday High Of $80.18 After Supplies Fall More Than Expected.

Pete Najarian tells the panel that commodities such as oil were the main drivers of Wednesday’s market.

Karen Finerman likes ConocoPhillips (COP) as a beneficiary of $80 oil.

Guy Adami recommends Apache (APA) as a trade on crude.

On a related note, Dylan Ratigan explains that the Dow gave up a gain of 52 points to end the session lower snapping a 2-day advance. It’s Up 6.6% in 2007

He also says that the dollar fell to a record low against the euro on rate-cut speculation.
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