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07.08.2007., utorak

Scaeffer se ispričava - kriva procjena marketa

Kao što sam prije pisao i prenio Schaefferovo mišljenje da postoji puno kupljene zaštite i da bi sa contrarian pristupa stvarima market trebao nastaviti rast, Schaeffer priznaje grešku, a i navodi kako bi ovaj puta VIX mogao dogurati i do 30 dok se čvrsto dno ne uspostavi (mid term).
Evo i priznanja:

A bit of a mea culpa is certainly warranted at this point. Obviously, the market action of the past few weeks hasn't exactly been consistent with my expectations. While I guessed there would be some speed-bumps at Dow 14,000 and the S&P's March 24, 2000 peak (above which the index never did manage a daily close), the depth of the recent selling pressure has been more dramatic than I'd expected. Part of a trader's life's work is learning from his mistakes, so I "analyzed my own analysis" to try and determine where I went astray. Stay tuned to SR.com for my thoughts on "where I went wrong on the market."

But even as we analyze where we might have gone wrong in the short-term, we must be careful not to capitulate emotionally to the market gyrations du jour and lose sight of core arguments that continue to make sense. If in fact this market has just put in a major top, it will be against a sentiment backdrop that is vastly different from all tops in recent memory, and while "this time may be different" it is very often a bad bet to assume so. Again, more to come in the upcoming commentary I just referenced.

As the bulls and bears prepare for battle this week, we'll have the latest interest-rate decision from Ben and the gang, but other than that a fairly light week from an economic basis (read: nothing on the housing front). Cisco Systems ( CSCO: View sentiment for CSCOsentiment, chart, options) will report earnings news, as will CheckFree, Duke Energy, and countless others, though there is a perceptible decline in high-profile reports. While there is the potential for disappointment on the Fed front and with Cisco's earnings, under current circumstances each of these events has - in my opinion - more potential upside than downside impact for the market.

Smatram da je uvijek dobro pročitati ovako nešto od iskusnog igrača na opcijskom tržištu.
Sa druge strane Sy Harding je pisao već prije nekoliko mjeseci o nadolazećoj credit/debt krizi.
U oba slučaja, ova korekcija se može, ali i ne mora pretvoriti u bear market. No čak i kada bi bull market ostao netaknut, slažu se da ovo vjerojatno nije pravo dno.
- 14:36 - Komentari (0) - Isprintaj - #

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