Bear Stearns potaplja tržište

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06.08.2007., ponedjeljak

Evo jednog vrlo zabavnog Cramerovog istupa:

“This is about Bernanke. This is about Bernanke. He has to be on that call. Forget the investors…. Bernanke needs to open the discount window. That’s how bad things are out there. Bernanke needs to focus on this. Alan Greenspan told everyone to take a teaser rate and then raised the rates seventeen times, and Bernanke is being an academic. It is no time to be an academic; it is time to get on the Bear Stearns call, listen, open the darn Fed window. He Has No Idea How Bad It Is Out There, HE HAS NO IDEA. HE HAS NO IDEA.

I HAVE TALKED TO THE HEADS OF ALMOST EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THESE FIRMS IN THE LAST 72 HOURS AND HE HAS NO IDEA WHAT IT’S LIKE OUT THERE. NONE! AND BILL POOLE HAS NO IDEA WHAT IT’S LIKE OUT THERE. MY PEOPLE HAVE BEEN IN THIS GAME FOR 25 YEARS AND THEY’RE LOSING THEIR JOBS AND THESE FIRMS ARE GOING TO GO OUT OF BUSINESS, AND HE’S NUTS, THEY’RE NUTS! THEY KNOW NOTHING!! … THE FED IS ASLEEP!!! "

Još bolje je ako na YouTube nađete snimku, ja je ne mogu linkati zbog restrikcija na mom radnom mjestu!

Što se stvarno zbilo u petak i kako credit/debt bubble počinje svoju eksploziju:

Markets will watch keenly for any sign the U.S. central bank, which has persistently identified the risk of inflation as its main concern, is beginning to worry a bit more about the potential for an undesirable weakening in the economy.

The possibility of such a shift rose late on Friday as stocks tumbled sharply in the closing hours of trading after comments by a senior executive at investment bank Bear Stearns that credit conditions were the worst in two decades.

The Dow Jones Indusrial Average closed down more than 281 points, or 2%, at 13,181.91. The blue chip index is off 5.8% from a record high close on July 19.

Ono što treba naglasiti je da je propadanje Bear Stearnsovih hedge fondova vjerojatno samo vrh ledenog brijega. Mnogi investitori na fixed income marketu trenutno ne znaju niti koliko njihovi papiri vrijede!
Ako je ovo početak bear marketa, nije za očekivati da će ići ravnom linijom dolje. Bit će mnogo pokušaja rally-ja. Možemo očekivati lower highs- lower lows pattern pri takvom marketu, koji će mnoge investitore privuči sa tvrdnjom o pravim buying opportunities.

Ponovno imamo kratkoročnu oversold situaciju (koja može postati i još više oversold):

W formacija bi bila kratkoročno bullish.

- 09:27 - Komentari (0) - Isprintaj - #

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