Trgovina dionicama i opcijama

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Opis bloga

15-dnevni chartovi:

qqqq - Nasdaq 100 ETF

FREE Swing Day Trading Stock Charts from www.mrswing.com - qqqq

VIX - CBOE Volatility index

FREE Swing Day Trading Stock Charts from www.mrswing.com - vix

Ovaj blog je moj osobni osvrt na pojedine dionice, opcije i kretanja u ekonomiji općenito i kako ona utječu na tržišta kapitala.
Služi mi prvenstveno za komunikaciju sa drugim bloggerima istog interesa, komunikaciju sa prijateljima koji nemaju blog i kao moja evidencija.
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Najčešći linkovi

CNN premarket
CNN market data
Trader Mike
Wall Street Warrior

Mad Money / Fast Money blog
Stockcharts
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Investors intelligence chartovi
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Swing trade edukativni blog
StockTock YouTube channel
Stock Tock web page
Alpha Tredns YouTube channel
AlphaTrends web pagerends YouTube channel

29.10.2007., ponedjeljak

The Hindenburg omen

Taman mi je izgledalo da bi se MACD za Nasdaq-a mogao prebaciti sa sell na buy (i to bi bio signal za ulaz za Sy Hardingov seasional timing ), kada sam naišao na slijedeći članak:

The Hindenburg omen is a relatively uncommon indicator, but it should not be easily dismissed. This indicator is named after the after the German airship and has become synonymous with the word 'crash'. This tool uses market breadth theories to determine when there is a disparity between new highs and lows. A large divergence in highs and lows suggests that conviction of market participants is weakening and that they are unsure of the market's future direction.

This indicator gives a warning when more than 2.2% of the traded issues in the NYSE composite index are creating new highs while a separate 2.2% are creating new lows. On Friday there were 259 new highs, which equates to 7.6% of the traded issues (3,407). Also, there were 99 new lows, which equates to 2.9% of the traded issues. Readings above 2.2%, which occurred on Thursday and Friday, is the first sign of a valid Hindenburg omen, but it should be noted that many short-term traders will wait for a few other confirming indicators before taking a position.

- 16:03 - Komentari (2) - Isprintaj - #

17.10.2007., srijeda

Investors Intelligence poll

Nadopunjavam post od prošlog tjedna sa svježim podacima:

Sy Harding na svom blogu:
There has been a significant change in the last few weeks in the area of investor sentiment. Very bearish at the low in August, investors have slowly and gradually become less worried as the market rose. And in the last couple of weeks sentiment has reached levels usually considered to be excessive optimism. For instance, last week’s poll of its members by the American Association of Individual Investors showed a very high 54.6% bullish, only 25.8% bearish (the rest neutral). That is a very high reading (any reading over 50% bullish is considered getting into the danger area of too much optimism, usually seen as short-term tops approach). And the Investors Intelligence poll shows an also very high (for it) 60.2% bulls, and only 21.5% bears among investment newsletters, also an excess of optimism usually seen as market tops approach. (The opposite extreme of the majority being pessimistic and bearish is usually seen at market lows and good buying opportunities, after a market correction taken place).

Iako njegove komentare treba uzeti sa velikom dozom rezerve, jer nije trader, svakako treba uzeti u obzir ova očitanja koja su blizu ekstremnog optimizma.

Napomena: moguće je i da se overbought stanje tržišta ne ispravi korekcijom, već "istitravanjem" na ovim nivoima uz proticanje vremena.
Više nismo toliko kratkoročno overbought, iako srednjeročno da.

Futuresi su jutros u plusu zbog dobrih zarada tehnoloških kompanija.

- 13:00 - Komentari (0) - Isprintaj - #

11.10.2007., četvrtak

Reversal day?

Nasdaq je trenutno 42 pointa u minusu!
Nakon što sam upozorio (prethodna dva posta) na overbought situaciju za cijelo tržište i popriličnu razinu optimizma (iako ne na ekstremnim nivoima) evo i oštrog preokreta!
Vidjet ćemo kakav je karakter ove rasprodaje tek u slijedećim danima, da li je ovo početak korekcije ili samo normalno uzimanje zarada.

Spomenimo i slabe rezultate retailera (=slabi consumer) i pogledajmo intraday reversal:

btw. free fall traje dok ovo pišem, nasdaq je trenutno na -52!!!

Stock market je do sada živio u Dreamworldu?
Ili će globalni rast i dalje gurati tržišta gore?

- 21:14 - Komentari (1) - Isprintaj - #

Fast Money & Mad money preporuke - GOOG

Final Trade
Jon Najarian says Google is going to trade to $700 before the end of the year. Pete Najarian favors ValueClick Inc. (VCLK). Seymour likes ConocoPhillips for European exposure. Finerman recommends Tyco Electronics Ltd. (TEL). Macke likes Merck & Co. Inc. (MRK)

Jim Cramer Says Google Inc. To $750
Jim told us today that Google Inc. (GOOG) should hit $750 and may go higher than that. The time is still there to cash in on the stock as it is a great company with secular growth. The party may just be getting started with the Google phone and YouTube still hasn't been monetized yet. They have $60 billion in revenues and only a $200 billion market cap which makes them cheap. There is room to grow in the search and ad areas as they only have a fifth of the potential market share. GOOG is a real company with real earnings and should be valued like any other company. The company is a consistent 30% a year grower and Cramer estimates them earning $20 a share, this led him to the $750 target. When he looks at other companies that are somewhat close to GOOG the number could be higher. Compared to Hologic Inc. (HOLX) it would be worth $880 and compared to Intuitive Surgical Inc. (ISRG) it would be worth $1,500.

Fast Money - dva dana staro:
Stacey Gilbert likes Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) and she says the call options are very active on the name. Najarian says the Google December $750 calls were active Monday and he sees the stock going a lot higher.

Vidjet ćemo da li će biti pullback-a Nasdaq-a, a time i qqqq-a na 21-day moving average. Ako do njega dođe, očito je što se preporučuje!

Google djeluje prilično overbought trenutno, uostalom kao i qqqq.
Futures za Nasdaq su i danas u plusu...

- 10:36 - Komentari (1) - Isprintaj - #

10.10.2007., srijeda

The contrary thinking

Evo jedne misli, koja jako dobro opisuje contrarian strategiju:

"The crowd is right during the trends, but wrong at both ends"
~Humphrey Neill, The Art of Contrary Thinking

Misao mi se toliko sviđa, da sam je izdvojio u poseban post!

- 20:35 - Komentari (0) - Isprintaj - #

09.10.2007., utorak

Tehnička analiza marketa + contrarian indikatori

Iz gornjih grafova može se vidjeti da je market napravio ogroman run, nakon dna koji je obilježio veliki rast volatilnosti i spike na 37,5 , nivo koji nije zabilježen
od bear marketa 2000-2002.

Iako vrijednost VIX-a (za nasdaq bi se trebao koristiti VXN) nije na nivoima prije ovoga pada, znači optimizam nije na ekstremno visokim nivoima, ipak je merket napravio veliki pozitivni pomak u kratkom, možda i prekratkom vremenu.
Isto tako, over-extended je od svog 21-day moving average-a.

Ne bi bilo čudno da se linije spoje i da nasdaq dotakne svoj 21-day moving average, tim više što je put&call ratio na tako niskom nivou.

Ne znači da market ne može postati još više overbought, ali mislim da je sada potreban osobit oprez.

Optimizam nije na nekim ekstremno bullish očitanjima, ali nagli porast optimizma isto poziva na oprez:

Ali istina je da je earnings season i da su očekivanja zarada ekstremno mala, pa je otvoren veliki prostor za pozitivna iznenađenja.
Vidjet ćemo, bit će interesantno slijedećih tjedana!

- 16:49 - Komentari (0) - Isprintaj - #

01.10.2007., ponedjeljak

New quarter, old subprime woes

Bit će zanimljivo danas pratiti financije i XLF - Exchange traded fund vezan za financije:

Shares of Dow component Citigroup (Charts, Fortune 500) were down 2 percent in pre-market trading just after the report. But S&P futures soon rebounded and were slightly higher at 7:56 a.m. ET, although a comparison to fair value still suggested a lower open for blue chips. Nasdaq futures remained lower.

Swiss bank UBS (Charts) also said it will take a $3.4 billion hit in the third quarter due to problems stemming from the subprime mortgage crisis. The bank also said it expects to post a quarterly pre-tax loss of up to $690 million and cut up to 1,500 jobs by the year end.

Originalan link

- 14:18 - Komentari (5) - Isprintaj - #

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