Trgovina dionicama i opcijama

28.09.2007., petak

Fast Money - izdvajam preporuke

Ne mislim da je trenutak za kupnju call opcija za bilo koju od ovih preporuka.
Indexi su over-extended od njihovog 21-day moving average-a, ali svejedno prenosim:

Pete Najarian thinks the brokers are back in play. He is recommending buying Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (LEH) because he saw upside options activity in the name on Wednesday.

Najarian says the solar names are in play and going higher off a conference in California. His favorite name in the solar sector is Cypress Semiconductor Corporation (CY).

The technology stock leaders continue to shine on Wednesday with names like Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG), Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN), Hewlett Packard Company (HPQ), Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO) and Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) hitting 52-week highs. Is the rally over for the tech stars, or is now the time to buy? CNBC Silicon Valley Bureau Chief Jim Goldman joined the crew to discuss technology stocks. Goldman says 1 million people played Halo 3 online in the first 20 hours. He thinks this could cause owners of the older X-Box that doesn’t have online capabilities to upgrade. Macke loves the story and if video game players migrate up this is bullish for tech. Goldman doesn’t think the government will rule against Google on Thursday in their antitrust issues with the purchase of DoubleClick. Goldman says even though RIMM, GOOG and AAPL have run up to high prices, they have plenty of room for even more gains. Najarian says look at Apple and if the PC story is true in Asia and Apple can make some strides the price-to-earnings is under priced.

Final Trade
Macke says now is a good time to sell Bear Stearns Companies Inc. Finerman says BEA Systems is going higher. Najarian recommends Isis Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ISIS). Adami picked NYSE Euronext (NYX)

- 11:11 - Komentari (7) - Isprintaj - #

For the record... Jim Cramer Sell Block

Jim savjetuje da se uzme profit na 4 jahača:

"Sell Block started with us being told to take profits on Google Inc. (GOOG), Apple Inc. (AAPL) and Research In Motion Limited (RIMM). These stocks he also called a buy. The method to Cramer's madness is that he is bullish on these longer term. Home gamers could never move the price of a company like AAPL but money managers who can buy hundreds of thousands can. The big funds use their weight to make a quick buck on stocks after missing the strength in the stocks and this has been pushing the Four Horsemen higher.
Viewers were urged to sell Savient Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (SVNT) and move away from Chattem Inc. (CHTT).

Samo zamjećujem, nemam navedene dionice ni opcije, a ne vidim da je spominjao AMZN.

- 10:54 - Komentari (0) - Isprintaj - #

26.09.2007., srijeda

Durable goods orders below forecasts

Commerce Dept. reading slides 4.9% in August, suggesting slowdown in manufacturing sector.

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Demand for big-ticket manufactured goods plunged in August by the largest amount in seven months, with widespread weakness signaling a slowdown in the nation's industrial sector.

The Commerce Department reported Wednesday that orders for durable goods, everything from commercial jetliners to home appliances, fell by 4.9 percent in August, the biggest decline since a 6.1 percent fall in January.

It was far larger than the 3.5 percent drop that economists had been expecting and resulted from across-the-board decreases in a number of categories. The concern is that the steep downturn in housing and turbulence in financial markets could start to affect the economy more broadly, raising the risks of a full-blown recession.

Zašto prenosim ovu vijest? Pa vijest je poprilično loša, a market raste! I to sve pored jučerašnjih loših vijesti... vidjet ćemo hoće li se ostvariti Cramerova prognoza i Sy Hardingovo mišljenje o padu!

- 16:07 - Komentari (0) - Isprintaj - #

25.09.2007., utorak

Tjedan poslije ekspiracije

Sy: "Week after a quadruple-witching expirations week, traders are telling me to watch out, they are expecting a big give back week"

Jim Cramer i njegova 4 jahača:
To prepare for a market downturn investors should change strategy. Jim would like nothing more than to come out completely bullish but after two good weeks the market is due for a sizable decline of 1% to 2%. After advising against buying stocks right now we are to look for better prices in upcoming weeks and for those that wait they will be rewarded. Viewers should turn to the four horsemen of tech: Apple Inc. (AAPL), Google Inc. (GOOG), Research In Motion Limited (RIMM) and Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) as they are up 31% since they were grouped together this summer. The horsemen have pricing power and they have performed well. AAPL has cited iPhone sales and thinks after the pullback it will hit $175 due to a decline in raw costs. RIMM is up 17% since the horsemen were created and they are "mopping the floor with Palm, Inc. (PALM)." Gas and taxes along with Christmas sales are the reasons for AMZN to benefit. Since June GOOG is up nearly 9.5% with the overhiring expenses now under control the stock is set to fly. Wait for the market pullback and then buy the four horse

Jim očekuje pullback i preporuča kupnju svoja "4 jahača" tijekom pullback-a.

- 14:52 - Komentari (13) - Isprintaj - #

21.09.2007., petak

Fast Money

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) reported record numbers on Thursday. Najarian says sell GS on the news.

Unusual options activity was present in Cree Inc. (CREE) (- po drugi puta na Fast Money-u) and Brightpoint Inc. (CELL) on Thursday. Najarian saw huge monster volume on the CREE September $35 calls and the CELL April $20 calls.
Bit će zanimljivo ovo sa CREE, jer koliko sam shvatio te opcije danas ekspiriraju.

Final Trade
Macke is adding more to his position in Activision Inc. (ATVI). Adami recommends buying Oracle as long as it stays above $20.50. Finerman is sticking with getting long BEA Systems Inc. (BEAS). Najarian says buy Sohu.com (SOHU)

- 17:09 - Komentari (0) - Isprintaj - #

19.09.2007., srijeda

VIX nakon FED-a

Prateći VIX zadnja 2 dana (dva zadnja candlesticka na chartu), za sada se ponaša upravo po krivulji statistike, postanu na ovom blogu 14.9.

Pomak je bio toliko velik da je svakako put opcija na vix bila itekako tradeable.
Vidjet ćemo da li će se pomak nastaviti i dalje, a onda natrag prema gore.

Da je FED spustio kamatne stope za 0.5% ne treba posebno navoditi, svatko tko imalo prati tržište već to zna, što je prouzrokovalo veliki rally i short squeeze u zadnjih manje od 2 sata trgovanja.
Za tržište je to poprilično pozitivno iznenađenje, ali ostaju brojna otvorena pitanja.
Volumen je konačno bio malo veći!

- 11:23 - Komentari (0) - Isprintaj - #

18.09.2007., utorak

Očekujući zarade brokera i financija

Od zanimljivih događanja ovoga tjedna, svakako su objave zarada brokera.
Najarian je bullish...

Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (LEH) and Bear Stearns Companies Inc. (BSC) traded up 10% this week ahead of earnings. Adami says you can own Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) into earnings. Najarian says the options are pricing in big moves on brokers and investors can be buyers into earnings. Macke says get long GS with a stop at $185.

Od banaka, spomenutih za puteve, ranije na ovom blogu, sada suprotna preporuka. Na putevima se moglo lijepo zaraditi, samo je bilo pitanje timinga za izlaz. U taj trejd nisam ulazio, ali sam pratio.

On Najarian of optionMonster.com makes a play in the banking arena with Citibank (C).

* Trade Triggers: Citigroup (C)
* Stock Off Highs
* Call & Stock Buying
* C, Oct. 47.50 Calls

- 10:07 - Komentari (0) - Isprintaj - #

14.09.2007., petak

FED meeting outcome

Smijer marketa slijedeći tjedan odredit će FED sastanak koji određuje kratkoročne kamatne stope.

Evo vjerojatnosti sa kojom se očekuju pojedine kamatne stope.

Ispada da se najviše očekuje da će FED rezati za 0,5%, a onda za 0,25%.
S obzirom da su ekonomski podaci sve lošiji u zadnje vrijeme, ne očekuje se da NEĆE rezati - ta vjerojatnost je gotovo 0%.
Kada bi se to desilo, to bi potopilo market.
Ako režu 0,25, to je već uračunato u cijene dionica, ali opet je moguće da zbog tona priopćenja tržišta pozitivno reagiraju.
0,5% bi gotovo sigurno poslao dionice u višednevni rally.

Danas su futuresi u debeloj negativi zbog ponovnih briga oko likvidnosti kreditnog tržišta..

Također, visoka je vjerojatnost da će se volatility (VIX) smanjiti na dan FED-ovog sastanka:

The graphic tells the story rather succinctly and it suggests that it is wise to be short volatility on the day before the FOMC announce and to be long volatility the day after the announcement, with the expectation of a volatility mini-crush of sorts, on the order of about 3.5% -- with half of that move coming on announcement day and the other half of the move coming the day after the announcement.

Of course, there is considerable risk in jumping to conclusions that the 21 most recent data points are defining a new context for FOMC announcement volatility, but that possibility bears watching.

Više na VIX and more.

Ispada da bi opcije na VIX trebalo prodati dan prije sastanka, a ponovno kupiti dan-dva poslije.
Međutim, zbog potpuno drugačijeg okruženja u ekonomiji od ove statistike, možda i ne bude tako.
Kako svi analitičari trube (i Najarian među njima) da smo u periodu visoke volatilnosti koji će se zadržati još neko vrijeme, svaki veći pad VIX-a bi se mogao interpretirati kao dobar ulaz u VIX callove.

Zgodno je znati i:

The charts on this page are from FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) Days. These are days when "The Fed" determines what the interest rate is going to be. These days are normally characterized by low volatility in the mornings and high volatility after the announcement. These charts are for the E-mini S&P500 index future and are mostly used by day traders.

Znači, pripazite na VIX ovih dana, bit će interesantno!!!

- 14:45 - Komentari (2) - Isprintaj - #

13.09.2007., četvrtak

Gartman On Trading Oil At $80

Oil touched a record $80 a barrel and the dollar sunk to a record low versus the euro Wednesday. Also, wheat hit a record and gold continued to hold well above $700. How do you trade these currency and commodity milestones?
Strategic investor Dennis Gartman, author of The Gartman Letter, joins the panel for this conversation. Here are excerpts from what was said.
Why did oil jump over 80?

“The demand for oil is continuing to push oil prices up,” says Gartman. OPEC raised production but didn’t raise it all that much..."

He adds, “Demand is strong not just in the United States but everywhere…quite frankly I’m not sure where it will stop … the trend is up.”

Are you more inclined to buy oil now?

“I am long crude oil,” says Gartman. “(I do that by being) long Athabasca (ABM) and Suncor (SU)… and I see every reason to be that way.”

He adds “I’m not more excited to see crude above $80 – that’s more psychological… actually (the price) frightens me a bit because the public tends to want to buy things when you go onto the new number. But the trend is up.”

Is the imploding dollar the driver?

“Well the dollar’s weakness continues and the market is saying it knows The Fed is going to ease monetary policy,” says Gartman. “The question is, more than 25 basis points? I think not.”

Dylan Ratigan reminds investors if they want to get long the yen the ETF is CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY),and for the euro it is CurrencyShares Euro Trust (FXE).

$80 OIL, RECORD LOW DOLLAR, STOCKS QUIET

The headline: Oil Touches Record Intraday High Of $80.18 After Supplies Fall More Than Expected.

Pete Najarian tells the panel that commodities such as oil were the main drivers of Wednesday’s market.

Karen Finerman likes ConocoPhillips (COP) as a beneficiary of $80 oil.

Guy Adami recommends Apache (APA) as a trade on crude.

On a related note, Dylan Ratigan explains that the Dow gave up a gain of 52 points to end the session lower snapping a 2-day advance. It’s Up 6.6% in 2007

He also says that the dollar fell to a record low against the euro on rate-cut speculation.

- 11:25 - Komentari (0) - Isprintaj - #

Fast Money

Here's our Fast Money Final Trade:

Jeff Macke recommends Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) as a bet against The Dow.
Guy Adami likes Zimmer Holdings (ZMH).
Karen Finerman prefers Johnson & Johnson (JNJ).
Pete Najarian says St. Jude Medical (STJ) is a buy.

Pete ponovno preporučuje STJ. Za moj ukus je već previše otišla gore, ali isto je bilo sa IMCL. Bit će zanimljivo vidjeti dalje.

Pops & Drops:

Rambus (RMBS) popped 6%. The chip technology maker rose on reports of a possible takeout by Sun Microsystems. – Pete Najarian says options volume suggests to him that RMBS could be a takeover target.

- 10:53 - Komentari (0) - Isprintaj - #

12.09.2007., srijeda

Jučerašnji rally

Jučerašnji rally je bio na malom volumenu i bez participacije financijskog sektora. Vidjet ćemo dokle će dospjeti. Zanimljivo je kako otresaju male ulagače stalnim swingovima u direkciji marketa. Na kraju je izgledalo kao da se netko počeo jako istresati a onda je upaljen suprotni program i market je završio blizu vrhunca!
S ekonomske strane svi očekuju rate cut i gledaju što će Bernanke reći, kao da on ima čarobni štapić. Ako 18 ne bude rate cut-a imat ćemo veliku rasprodaju, a ako bude čak 0.5 pointa imat ćemo rally...
Riječ recesija je sve češća u komentarima.

- 16:46 - Komentari (0) - Isprintaj - #

Najarian: STJ

Najarian highlighted unusual call options activity on St. Jude Medical Inc. (STJ). Najarian says he is seeing monster options activity for the September $50 calls with over 14,000 contracts trading hands Tuesday. He feels that someone is placing a bet that the company is going to be acquired.

Trenutna cijena 46.97

- 16:33 - Komentari (5) - Isprintaj - #

11.09.2007., utorak

IMCL

LONDON (Reuters) - ImClone Systems (IMCL.O: Quote, Profile, Research) shares soared nearly 30 percent in premarket trade on Tuesday on news Erbitux improves overall survival in lung cancer, offsetting earlier doubts about the drug's value in treating the disease.

O biotech firmama je bilo riječ na ovom blogu. Na žalost, nisam bio u IMCL-u prije objave.

- 15:55 - Komentari (9) - Isprintaj - #

09.09.2007., nedjelja

Buy signals

Članak je malo stariji, tako da nisu unijete nove vrijednosti u chartove:

Zanimljiva jednostavna strategija

This week we will look at another Buy Strategy that has worked well in the past regardless of what time of the month it is. This Strategy uses the 2 Period RSI (Relative Strength Index) and a 5 Day Stochastic. What I look for in this Strategy is for the 2 Period RSI to have 3 days in a row below 65 with the last day below 10. In addition I also want to see the 5 Day Stochastic below 20 as well.

I will focus on the SPY and show the Buy Signals that have been generated since May (points B) along with the entry days (points E). Buy Signals were generated at the close on June 7th, June 26th and again on July 27th with the entry days on June 8th, June 27th and July 30th. In each of these cases the SPY gained over $2 or more within a day or two.

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

Meanwhile here are some more examples from late 2006 into early 2007 with the Buy Signals (points B) and the entry days (points E). In each of these cases the SPY gained from $1 to $2 within a day or two.

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

- 17:41 - Komentari (0) - Isprintaj - #

06.09.2007., četvrtak

CNBC Fast Money

Final Trade
Na žalost ne mogu pratiti video sa CNBC-a sa posla, zbog ograničenja. Prenosim napisane ideje sa CNBC-a. Ne ulazim u tradeove, a puteve na DIA već imam (pandan je DOG - fond za shortanje Dow30)

Jeff Macke recommends Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) for the second day in a row.
Karen Finerman likes Kraft (KFT).
Guy Adami prefers Biogen (BIIB).
Pete Najarian says Nokia (NOK) is a buy.

Ako tržište krene prema gore, morat ću rezati izloženost putevima.

Pops&Drops:
Biram 2 dropa:

Citigroup (C) dropped 3%. The world's biggest bank fell after word the company might have exposure to "off the books" pools of commercial paper. – Karen Finerman believes there’s another shoe to drop.

Warner Music Group (WMG) dropped 5%.After the widely-feared bear said he was shorting Warner Music Group last night on Fast Money, shares collapsed. – Karen Finerman says stay away from this stock.

Posebno mi je interesantan Citigroup za puteve.

Big Pharma

Pete Najarian likes Merck (MRK) in the Big Pharma sector as well as Bristol Myers (BMY) and Eli Lily (LLY).

Jon Nararian explains his attraction to these stocks is two fold; a flight to quality and their promising drug pipeline.

Biotech

Pete Najarian feels Amgen (AMGN) and Genentech (DNA) have completely under-performed in the last 52-weeks and suggests they’re going to move soon. Also, he recommends taking a long look at Biogen (BIIB) as well as Amylin (AMLN).

Guy Adami likes Biogen, as well.

Jeff Macke prefers Genentech.

Jon Najarian tells the panel he thinks Dendreon (DNDN) and Salix Pharmaceutical (SLXP) could be moving lower.

Napominjem, preporuke sa CNBC-a uzimajte sa rezervom ili za kraći trade, ali do your homework prije toga!!!

- 13:42 - Komentari (5) - Isprintaj - #

05.09.2007., srijeda

Najarian - preporuka sa CNBC-a

Heavy call buying - DNA Genentech

Ne ulazim u ovaj trade, kao ni u par prošlih preporuka.
Najarian kaže da su biotech dionice otporne na trenutnu financijsku krizu i ovise isključivo o svojim patentima.

Danas smo također vidjeli i veliki pad Appple-a, preporučenog sa CNBC-a jučer!!! (ali sa mojom vremenskom ogradom):

Apple announced a major overhaul of its iPod line and cut the price of the iPhone. Shares fell on news that the lower-end iPhone would be slashed 33%, to $399.

- 21:52 - Komentari (0) - Isprintaj - #

Fast Money & Mad money preporuke - tehnologija

Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) traded up on Tuesday after Bear Stearns named it the top pick for the next 12 months. Is Yahoo a take over target? Macke says no. Najarian says it’s time to own Yahoo and the options are indicating that you can own the stock into January. Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) traded higher on Tuesday after a Piper Jaffray analyst predicted strong iPhone sales. Najarian says that the new ipod release could be big for Apple and he thinks the company will announce a 2-for-1 split soon.

Cramer called Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) the ultimate back-to-school stock play, Jim Cramer Apple's biggest surprise in the coming quarter will be its success on the desktop, as it keeps battling for inroads against the PC. "Apple guided very low for the next quarter," Cramer said. "The stock will run up as people realize the quarter will be better than expected." As investors catch on to Apple's strength in the desktop, it will further solidify the company's standing as one of the must-own tech stocks, Cramer said. The franchise in too many areas is just too strong, as would-be competitors fall by the wayside. "They ought to give up; Apple is too powerful," Cramer said. That's even after Apple's encountered some turbulence with its iPhone rollout on the AT&T network, effectively shutting off half the country, which would prefer different carriers, Cramer said. Cramer also made bullish comments on Research In Motion Limited (RIMM), Garmin Ltd. (GRMN), Google Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) and Amazon.com (AMZN)

Kod ovih preporuka je timing od najvećeg značaja. Uspjeh trade-a ovisi o tome je li market bottom iza nas ili će biti još jedan "leg down"!
Za sada ne kupujem dionice ili opcije za ove preporuke.

- 13:50 - Komentari (2) - Isprintaj - #

A Motley Fool Stock advisor:DLB i NVT

Besplatna preporuka za dugoročnu investiciju: Dolby i Navteq

Today you learned about David and Tom Gardner's top picks for new money now. Like David, Navteq is a rule-breaking maverick intent on a quick rise to dominance in a niche market of its own creation.

Much the same can be said of Dolby -- though Tom's No. 1 pick has opted for a measured and steady rise to dominance. A tactic reflected in its impressive operational history and sterling balance sheet.

Ovo je bila preporuka iz maila koji sam primio. Vidjet ćemo za nekoliko mjeseci kako se provela...
Ne ulazim u ove pozicije.

- 11:06 - Komentari (3) - Isprintaj - #

03.09.2007., ponedjeljak

Overbought market

Sa petkom, market je kratkoročno ponovno postao overbought, a dotaknuli smo i 61,8% Fibonacci retracement level.

Na grafovima burzovnih indexa formirao se lower highs - lower lows pattern i izlaz iz toga bi trebao biti veći pomak u pozitivu na većem volumenu, što proteklih 13 dana ovoga rally-ja nismo vidjeli.

- 16:46 - Komentari (0) - Isprintaj - #

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Ovaj blog je ustupljen pod Creative Commons licencom Imenovanje-Nekomercijalno-Dijeli pod istim uvjetima.

Trgovina dionicama i opcijama

Opis bloga

Najčešći linkovi

28.09.2007., petak

Fast Money - izdvajam preporuke

For the record... Jim Cramer Sell Block

26.09.2007., srijeda

Durable goods orders below forecasts

25.09.2007., utorak

Tjedan poslije ekspiracije

21.09.2007., petak

Fast Money

19.09.2007., srijeda

VIX nakon FED-a

18.09.2007., utorak

Očekujući zarade brokera i financija

14.09.2007., petak

FED meeting outcome

13.09.2007., četvrtak

Gartman On Trading Oil At $80

Fast Money

12.09.2007., srijeda

Jučerašnji rally

Najarian: STJ

11.09.2007., utorak

IMCL

09.09.2007., nedjelja

Buy signals

06.09.2007., četvrtak

CNBC Fast Money

05.09.2007., srijeda

Najarian - preporuka sa CNBC-a

Fast Money & Mad money preporuke - tehnologija

A Motley Fool Stock advisor:DLB i NVT

03.09.2007., ponedjeljak

Overbought market

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