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18.04.2008., petak

Zanimljivo razmišljanje o tjednu ekspiracije opcija

Zanimljivo je, jer i ovu statističku činjenicu bi trebalo uzeti u obzir.
Sa Sy Hardinovog bloga:

As you know we believe the big factor the last few weeks have been first, the 'monthly strength period' that provided a big up-week three weeks ago, then the usually negative week before an options expirations week last week, which produced the big decline, and now this week the usually positive expirations week, which has been positive so far.

As I explained a few weeks ago, I believe the options related activity is created by the big program-trading firms using the power of their huge sell programs to drive the market down the week before the options expirations week, so they can load up on futures and call options that will expire the following week, for pennies on the dollar. And then they use the power of their huge buy programs to create upside volatility the week of the options, so they can sell those futures and options for huge profits that they bought for pennies on the dollar the previous week.

Yesterday's big rally provided the opportunity for them to take those profits early this week. How big are their profits? I've been watching 'out-of-the money' call options on The Russell 2000. With the Russell's big plunge last week some strike prices had dropped to so far out of the money that the options could be had for less than $1. And they then soared well back 'into the money' this week with the Russell's big rally, and were selling at $20 to $30 yesterday. Twenty to thirty times their cost in a week. Worth a little manipulation?
- 09:16 - Komentari (0) - Isprintaj - #

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