Oil Storms

22.04.2006., subota

Idemo malo na Juznu Ameriku, uz isti nazivnik

Chavez sees chance of oil hitting $100 per barrel

Curitiba, Brazil, Apr 20 (EFE)- Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, an antagonist of the United States whose nation is the world's fifth-largest exporter of crude oil, said here Thursday that the essential commodity's price might well continue its sharp climb and reach upwards of $100 per barrel.
He said that if that happened, most of the fault would lie with the Bush administration, which the self-styled socialist revolutionary often describes as an evil empire.

"There are many variables that are at play now. For example, the war-mongering rhetoric of the empire, the United States military threat against Iran, which is one of the biggest oil producers," the Venezuelan leader said in the southern Brazilian city of Curitiba, where he arrived for talks on energy and business.
"The axis of evil is growing and will continue growing," Chavez said a day after meeting in Asuncion with the leaders of Bolivia, Uruguay and Paraguay to talk about energy issues.
The Venezuelan leader said Thursday that he planned to meet next week in Brasilia with his counterparts from Brazil and Argentina to discuss energy matters. Chavez, a former army colonel, said Iran was a country that was "prepared for war."
"They are ready for a war. Now, hopefully, it will never come to this war. That could destabilize the Middle East even more and halt Iranian oil production, and that of other countries in the region," Chavez told reporters.

Chavez said an invasion of Iran "could finish destabilizing the little stability remaining in that very important region for the world, especially in the great basin of energy and oil resources in the Arabian and Persian gulfs," Chavez said. OPEC oil in recent days has been trading at about $66 per barrel, while Brent, the benchmark crude for the European Union, surpassed $73. Chavez blamed U.S. President George W. Bush's administration for much of the turmoil on the global oil markets.

The Venezuelan president, first elected in late 1998, and the Bush administration have been engaged in a long-running rhetorical war. Chavez has accused the United States of war mongering and imperialism, and claimed that Washington planned to kill him and invade Venezuela to seize control of its vast oil reserves.
Earlier this year, U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld warned about the leftist governments in Venezuela and Bolivia, and he compared Chavez's rise to power to that of Adolph Hitler.

"It depends on the United States. They should eliminate the option of military aggression against Iran" or any other country, Chavez said. Iran has the sovereign right to develop nuclear energy for peaceful uses and not for war, Chavez said.
The Venezuelan leader said he supported seeking balance on the oil market, but he did not say what he thought it should be for the price of crude, adding that "it could reach $100."

Venezuela and the other members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, or OPEC, have been seeking a balance among supply, demand and prices, Chavez said.
Chavez plans to meet in Brazil with business leaders and Parana state Gov. Roberto Requiao. He will talk with executives taking part in the Regional Meeting for Parana-Venezuela Integration, which is exploring joint business opportunities.

While Chavez spoke here, International Monetary Fund, or IMF, Managing Director Rodrigo Rato said in Washington that the price of crude would "probably" continue to be high and would have an effect on inflation. During a press conference ahead of the start of the spring meetings of the IMF and the World Bank, Rato said "things, in general, are going well" for the global economy, which the international financial institution forecasts will grow 4.9 percent this year. Rato, however, warned that rising energy prices continued to pose a "serious risk" to the global economy, even though their effects until now had been "moderated."

In recent years, oil prices have been driven higher by surging energy demand in the United States and the fast-growing economies of China and India. Increased political instability in the Middle East, largely due to the U.S. invasion and occupation of Iraq, and turmoil in Nigeria have also contributed to the spike in energy prices. The IMF noted that supply problems caused by inadequate investment in infrastructure have also helped push energy prices higher.

Kao sto rece Mobi: "...zanimljivo je kako malo ljudi posvećuje pažnju na Južno Američko 'čudo' ne samo u Venezueli gdje je došao novi moderni soj lidera koji shvaćaju da svi možemo biti ekstremno bogati i zadovoljni, a ne samo jedan mali segment društva koji arogancijom, povlasticama, lažima, krađom (tipično kapitalistički) skupljaju ekstremne svote novaca (moći) dok u isto vrijeme ljudi umiru u gladi u svijetu..."

Nazalost, tesko da cemo uskoro biti u poziciji da maknemo sadasnji 'mali segment drustva' s pozicija za koje su se borili zadnjih stoljeca te koje su konacno osvojili tijekom proslog stoljeca...namcor

- 18:46 - Komentari (9) - Isprintaj - #

19.04.2006., srijeda

All around...

Chavez says US warships threaten Venezuela, CubaTue Apr 18, 2006; By Greg Brosnan
CARACAS, Venezuela (Reuters) - President Hugo Chavez, who accuses Washington of planning to invade Venezuela, said on Tuesday recent deployment of U.S. warships in the Caribbean Sea threatened his country and its ally Cuba.
Four U.S. warships, including an aircraft carrier, and 6,500 sailors, are in a two-month deployment in the Caribbean Sea dubbed "Partnership of the Americas" by the U.S. Navy.
"They are doing maneuvers right here," Chavez told a student meeting in the country's west. "This is a threat, not just against us, against Venezuela, against Cuba."
Chavez has repeatedly accused the United States of trying to oust him. U.S. officials say the self-styled socialist revolutionary and friend of Cuban President Fidel Castro threatens regional stability.
Chavez, who has created a civilian reserve to resist the assault he says Washington is planning, has threatened to repel U.S. forces with arrows coated with poison.
The United States, a leading buyer of oil from Venezuela, the world's No. 5 exporter, has dismissed his invasion talk as a ridiculous invention aimed at stirring up his supporters.
At least one warship has come as close to Venezuela as the Dutch island of Aruba, about 15 miles off its coast.
The Florida-based U.S. Southern Command has said the operations, which include visits to countries including Venezuela's neighboring U.S. ally Colombia, focus on threats such as "narco-terrorism and human-trafficking."

Hu visits Boeing plant
Wed Apr 19, 2006; By Daisuke Wakabayashi and Scott Hillis
EVERETT, Washington (Reuters) - Chinese President Hu Jintao toured a Boeing Co. aircraft plant on Wednesday, on the eve of a summit with President Bush, where he will be pressed to cut China's trade surplus with the United States.
On the second day of a four-day visit to the United States, Hu was to tour three Boeing assembly lines and be briefed on the new Boeing 787 jet currently under development which the company touts as its "super-efficient airliner."
China recently signed a deal with the company to buy 80 737 jets worth about $4 billion.
Hu was then scheduled to address several thousand Boeing workers at the plant near Seattle, and deliver what his aides said would be an important policy speech, before flying to Washington D.C. for his White House meeting with Bush on Thursday.
Hu dined with about 100 U.S. political and corporate leaders on Tuesday night at the home of Bill Gates, whose Microsoft Corp. has been a major victim of Chinese software piracy. In a meeting earlier with Gates, Hu reiterated China would move against software pirates.
U.S. industry groups estimate 90 percent of DVDs, music CDs and software sold in China are pirated. The intellectual-property issue is also expected to be on the agenda when Hu meets Bush, as part of the discussion on China's $202 billion 2005 trade surplus with the United States.
In his dinner remarks, Hu stressed the expanding relationship between China and the United States.
"Today, many cargo ships are very busy crossing the Pacific Ocean, laden with the rich fruit of our strong trade ties and friendship between our two peoples," Hu said.
"I am sure that with the further deepening of China's reform and opening up, we are going to see an even broader prospect for the economic cooperation and trade between China and Washington state and China and the United States as a whole."
China sought to quell U.S. trade complaints before Hu's visit by signing contracts worth $16.2 billion while Vice Premier Wu Yi visited the United States last week.
U.S. officials have complained that China is moving too slowly to revalue its currency, the yuan, which they see as badly undervalued, making Chinese exports artificially cheap.
Bush has also said he would bring up Iran's nuclear program. He wants China to cooperate in putting more pressure on Tehran through the U.N. Security Council.
A Chinese spokesman told reporters on Tuesday, "We hope that we will continue to work toward a peaceful resolution of the Iran issue."
Hu said on Tuesday that China and the United States "share common strategic interests in a wide range of areas, particularly in maintaining world peace, promoting global economic growth, combating terrorism and preventing the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction."

China's Oil Needs Are High on U.S. Agenda

WASHINGTON, April 18 — The competition for access to oil is emerging high on the agenda for President Hu Jintao's visit to the White House this week. President Bush has called China's growing demand for oil one reason for rising prices, and has warned Beijing against trying to "lock up" global supplies.
With crude oil selling for more than $70 a barrel and American motorists paying $3 a gallon for gasoline, American officials say the subject cannot be avoided at Thursday's meeting in the Oval Office, as it was sidestepped when Mr. Bush visited Beijing last fall.
China's appetite for oil also affects its stance on Iran, where a growing confrontation with the United States over nuclear programs has already unsettled oil markets. China has invested heavily in Iran, and as a permanent member of the Security Council, its position on the question of sanctions is crucial.

Even as Mr. Hu arrived in Seattle on Tuesday, Chinese and American negotiators were debating a proposal for the two presidents to announce a joint study of both nations' energy needs as a way to ward off conflict in coming decades, when China's rapidly expanding need for imported energy to sustain its growth may collide with the needs of the United States, Europe and Japan.

In 2004 China used some 6.5 million barrels of oil a day and overtook Japan as the world's second largest user of petroleum products. The largest, the United States, consumes about 20 million barrels a day.
The administration's focus on China's quest for oil was signaled when it published a revised National Security Strategy last month, approved by Mr. Bush, that contained a pointed new entry about China.

That country's leaders, the document declared, are "expanding trade, but acting as if they can somehow 'lock up' energy supplies around the world or seek to direct markets rather than opening them up, as if they can follow a mercantilism borrowed from a discredited era."
Mercantilism was a post-feudal doctrine of national economic health through protectionism, foreign trade and exports, but administration officials have repeatedly used it to describe China, just as they once used it in the 1980's to describe Japan's approach to global trade.

In the case of China, the term is increasingly employed to paint a picture of a 21st-century version of the Great Game, the 19th-century maneuvering for primacy in Central Asia, in which China's search for oil is merging with its desire for greater influence, from Africa to Latin America to the Middle East.

"They are buying long-term supplies wherever they find them, including in unsavory places like Sudan, Iran and Burma, where we won't buy," said Michael J. Green, a Georgetown University professor who directed policy on China at the National Security Council until late last year. "They say it is benign, because they don't interfere with the internal affairs of other nations. And we say it is anything but benign, because it finances these regimes' bad behavior."
The public discussion began in September, when the deputy secretary of state, Robert B. Zoellick, urged China to become a "responsible stakeholder" on the world stage. He sested that China should rethink a policy of buying oil from the Burmese or the Sudanese simply because it could. "China's involvement with troublesome states indicates at best a blindness to consequences, and at worst something more ominous," Mr. Zoellick said at the time.

Nonetheless, Chinese officials said they liked much of his commentary because it sested an equality between China as a rising power and the United States as an established one. So far, however, the officials have not responded to the administration's call to rethink their policy.
Addiction to Oil?
Read more:

- 21:27 - Komentari (6) - Isprintaj - #

18.04.2006., utorak

Kome jos odgovara visoka cijena nafte?

Record oil prices could lead to collapse in Russian market

The price for Brent oil has reached a historic level, as for the first time it has risen above 70 dollars per barrel. If the USA does launch a military operation against Iran, experts think that the price for “black gold” could reach 100 dollars per barrel.
But current prices are already high enough as it is: Russia is literally smothered with petrodollars, but continues to blow up its bubble on the stock market, as property prices rise without any sign of slowing down.
However it could all end sorrowfully for Russia's economy when the bubble starts to burst. And according to experts, that is inevitable. Of course nobody is expecting a repeat of the 1998 crisis, but localized defaults are quite possible.
On Wednesday the oil futures price for May reached 71.17 dollars per barrel. It would be wrong to refer to a panic situation on the oil markets, but it is not far off this, say traders.
To a great extent Iran is contributing to the tension on the oil market. After US President George Bush rejected rumours about the possible launch of a military operation against Iran, Teheran replied that its country has successfully completed work to enrich uranium.
Washington did not believe this or at least pretended that they did not believe it.
However, by evening US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice called on the UN Security Council to take decisive steps over Iran.
“I think that the Security Council will have to pay serious attention to this action from Iran and that it will soon be time to take decisive steps so that people do not lose faith in the international community,” declared Rice.
The head of the US foreign policy agency did not specify what “decisive steps” the Security Council should take exactly, but many analysts thought that, having made this declaration, Rice had untied Washington’s hands: if the UN does not take the said “decisive steps”, the USA will reserve the right to act according to their discretion, and that would mean launching a military operation.
It was almost the same situation with Iraq, when Washington was dissatisfied with the “decisive steps” taken by the international organization and decided to solve the problem by itself.
We can see what this resulted in last time.
Teheran’s position is difficult to fathom, but there is the feeling that it is consciously adding oil to the fire and is “asking for trouble” from the USA.
After the report on the completion of the uranium enrichment was published, Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad again announced that his country is not intending to put a stop to its nuclear development. This public slap in the face to Washington may cost Teheran dear, but it is difficult to say whether the USA will launch a military operation.
At least, most analysts believe that they will not or are counting on Washington ’s good sense. That is why on Wednesday the oil futures overcame “only” one barrier.
If there were real preconditions for the start of another war, then on Wednesday “black gold” would have cost not 70, but 75 dollars, or even 80.
For the time being the movement of oil prices fits into the confines of a normal upward trend which has arisen on the back of a whole series of events.
Along with Iran’s declarations reports from Nigeria have added to the negative effect on the oil market.
In Nigeria international oil companies have been forced to reduce production because of an armed confrontation between local tribes.
On Wednesday the International Energy Agency (IEA) increased its forecast of the demand for OPEC oil in 2006 by 400 thousand barrels to 29.4 million barrels per day.
At the same time the forecast for this year’s oil deliveries by exporters which are not OPEC members has been cut to 1.15 million barrels, which would be below the forecast of 300-400 thousand barrels a day.
Following on from oil, other goods on the commodities’ market are demonstrating record growth rates.
On Tuesday the gold price on European markets broke the psychologically significant mark of 600 dollars per unit, which has stood since 1980.
Silver followed gold and updated its 23-year old maximum price. Platinum prices reached a new historic record at 1095 dollars per unit.
“There are practically no traders on the market,” noted one dealer. On Monday copper prices grew by 3%, and since the beginning of the year its growth has amounted to 35%. Experts explain the global growth in prices on all commodities markets with reference to the unstable situation around Iran, high oil prices and doubts over the stability of the American economy.
On the back of these international market trends, money is literally pouring into Russia.
On Thursday the volume of the gold and foreign currency reserves reached a new high – 208 billion dollars.
The stock market updated its historical peak, setting a new record of 1561 points on the RTS index. Experts think that that along with the inflationary pressure on the economy the stream of petrodollars carries with it the risk of the “overheating” of the financial markets. Analysts have long since stopped offering forecasts for a “fair” price for shares in Russian commodity companies. Quotations for these stocks long ago exceeded all predictions, and nobody is setting about predicting where the markets will move from now on. The market is highly overvalued, by at least 20 percent, think experts.
But for the time being this does not stop either Russian or Western buyers, who are continuing to pump money into the Russian market, thus blowing up its “bubble”.
It is difficult to say how much patience or money investors will have, but it is clear that even a small correction could turn into a global collapse.
The same thing is happening on the property market. When acquiring accommodation in order to obtain profit, investors are expecting a certain level of return.
If it is lower, then money will be diverted to other spheres and a global sell-off will begin on the property market.
However, this is being averted by a large excess of demand over supply.
The large amount of free money is leading the population into debt for life: the size of consumer credit is growing from year to year, as is the share of non-repayment. Several banks are already incurring losses because their clients are unable to correctly calculate the extent of their wealth.
A collapse in the stock market and property market will provoke a global crisis in the banking sector – the share of “bad” debts will grow many times over.
Such a pessimistic scenario need not take place in the very near future, but above all oil prices may be the impulse for it: if the crisis around Iran is resolved, oil prices may drop to 50 dollars a barrel. In that case some investors will undoubtedly rush to make a profit, withdrawing their money from Russian oil companies.
This will be the beginning of the end for the bubble whose growth we are now watching.

Nekako mi je ovo zadnje na tragu 'optimizma' Davora Šterna iz prošlog posta...thumbup

- 16:45 - Komentari (0) - Isprintaj - #

13.04.2006., četvrtak


Barel na 100 dolara - litra benzina 11 kn
piše Frenki LAUŠIĆ
Užarena iranska kriza već je izazvala nervozu na burzama, srušila cijene dionica i potaknula prognoze o mogućem poskupljenju barela nafte na 100 dolara. Hrvatska vlada pozorno prati situaciju i ako se cijena nafte drastično poveća, moguće je sniženje trošarina, tvrdi glasnogovornik Maček (drastično bi bilo što-75$-80$-90$-preko 100$?)
Mislim da se više ne radi samo o trenutačnom poskupljenju nafte nego da je vrijeme jeftine nafte nepovratno prošlo. Donedavno sam bio optimist eek i mislio da će se cijena nafte vratiti i stabilizirati na oko 55 dolara po barelu (na osnovu čega greedyDavore!?), ali čini se da će se u idućim godinama cijene kretati od 65 do 70 dolara (opet na osnovu čega!?), a nikoga neće iznenaditi ni povremen rast cijena dosta iznad 70 dolara po barelu - prokomentirao je Davor Štern, naftni konzultant i bivši predsjednik uprave Ine, najnovija kretanja cijena nafte na svjetskom tržištu. Brzi rast cijena nafte je uzrokovao pad cijena dionica na američkim burzama, ponajprije zbog očekivane posljedične inflacije.
Panika na tržištu
Cijene crnoga zlata na burzama sve brže mijenjaju ’boju’ u žuto.
Panika na tržištu nafte je tolika da neki analitičari drže kako bi cijena nafte mogla dosegnuti i 100 dolara, što bi zacijelo dovelo do naftnog šoka na svjetskom tržištu.
Iako iz Ine do zaključenja ovoga broja nismo dobili komentare na takav crni scenarij, prve procjene analitičara govore kako bi se cijena benzina u tom slučaju kretala od 10 do 11 kuna na benzinskim pumpama. No, Ratko Maček, glasnogovornik Vlade, kazao nam je kako Ministarstvo financija, Ministarstvo gospodarstva i Ina s pozornošću prate događaje na tržištu. "U ovom trenutku još nije sigurno hoće li cijena nafte nastaviti drastičnije rasti ili će se zaustaviti na granici koju je moguće kontrolirati uobičajenim mehanizmima Ministarstva gospodarstva i Ine. Ako cijena nafte drastično poraste, Vlada će upotrijebiti mjere koje su joj na raspolaganju. To znači da će se ili koristiti unutrašnje rezerve Ine ili će se pristupiti smanjivanju trošarina", rekao nam je Maček, dodavši kako će moguća korekcija gornje visine cijene benzina koja će se braniti ovisiti o kretanju cijena nafte na svjetskom tržištu.
Motor inflacije
Mogući rast cijena nafte svakako bi utjecao na rast praktički svih cijena u Hrvatskoj, udarajući na standard ljudi, ali i na sve monetarne i fiskalne projekcije Vlade. Aktualno poskupljenje nafte na 69 dolara za barel vezano je uz sve veću mogućnost da će isporuke iz Irana, četvrtog najvećeg svjetskog proizvođača, biti poremećene zbog sukoba s međunarodnom zajednicom glede nuklearnog programa te zemlje, ali još više zbog spekulacija oko toga da će SAD napasti Iran, odnosno bombardirati postrojenja za obogaćivanje urana koja su počela raditi ovaj ponedjeljak.

Aktualno poskupljenje je 'aktualno' zadnjih godinu dana, posljednje 'poskupljenje' (ili korekcija cijena, ljepše zvuči smijeh) je kontrolirano uglavnom plasiranjem vijesti iz Nigerije, a zadnjih dana obnavljanjem i 'konkretiziranjem' starih vijesti o pripremama za napad na Iran
Posnija ruska špina
Taman kad pomislite da gore ne može, londonski Financial Times je objavio kako će isporuke nafte iz Rusije tijekom iduće četiri godina biti manje nego što se očekivalo, te da će nastali "minus" morati nadoknaditi Organizacija zemalja izvoznica nafte (OPEC). Podsjetimo, Rusija je kao drugi najveći svjetski proizvođač nafte prijašnjih godina ostvarivala dvoznamenkasti rast isporuka, što je "amortiziralo" i drastično povećanje potražnje iz Kine.

A nisu ni Rusi blesavi, zašto bi oni namirivali dodatne potrebe svijeta za naftom ako im ne treba novaca (budući je cijena fino skocila za 50tak% u zadnjih par godina, imaju veći prihod uz manje ili isto prodanih barela), bolje da se smanje postojeće zalihe pa će im biti lakse diktirati uvjete sutra.
Loši faktori
Uz nesigurnosti na tržištu zbog situacije oko Irana, rast cijena nafte potiču i prognoze MMF-a o bržem gospodarskom rastu ove godine nego lani, te situacija u Nigeriji gdje je Royal Dutch Shell, zbog pobunjeničkih aktivnosti, prekinuo proizvodnju pola milijuna barela dnevno. Osim toga, u Venezueli, petom svjetskom izvozniku nafte, vode se rasprave o povećanju poreza međunarodnim naftnim kompanijama, što bi također povećalo cijene nafte.

Dakle, OPEC će namiriti preostale količine, fino...
Odakle će izvuci te dodatne količine kad rade na gotovo vršnom kapacitetu?
OPEC je i Iran i Irak i Venezuela i Nigerija...Tko će nadoknadit to? Saudijska Arabija?
Da neće možda iz Ghawara?

A i inače, zašto bi nadoknadili taj manjak, što nije bolje da cijena ode još gore?

p.s. Rast zaliha u SAD-u spustio cijene nafte:
Tjedno izvješće američke vlade pokazalo je rast zaliha sirove nafte u SAD-u za 3,2 milijuna barela, što je dvostruko više no što su analitičari očekivali. Cijene nafte ponovno su pale u četvrtak u odnosu na najvišu ovotjednu razinu od 70 dolara po barelu nakon što je tjedno izvješće američke vlade pokazalo rast zaliha sirove nafte u SAD-u na najvišu razinu u proteklih gotovo osam godina. Barel sirove nafte pojeftinio je na američkom tržištu 42 centa na 68,20 dolara nakon što je prethodnog dana već zabilježio pad od 36 centi. Na londonskom je tržištu barel pojeftinio 22 centa na 69,64 dolara. "Cijene naizmjence rastu i padaju, pri čemu ih solidne zalihe sirove nafte pritišću dok ih podižu geopolitičke bojazni", objasnio je Justin Smirk iz Westpaca. Tjedno izvješće američke vlade pokazalo je rast zaliha sirove nafte u SAD-u za 3,2 milijuna barela, što je dvostruko više no što su analitičari očekivali. Tako zalihe sirove naftne trenutno bilježe najvišu razinu u razdoblju od 1998.

Kao što bio rekla stara 'meteorološka poslovica': Indijanci skupljaju drva, mogla bi bit hladna zima...blablablablablabla

- 20:22 - Komentari (3) - Isprintaj - #

10.04.2006., ponedjeljak

If You Can't Win One War, Start Another

Tragom vijesti:
"SAD planira napad nuklearnim oružjem na Iran?"
George W. Bush tajno je poslao vojne snage u Iran i u napadu se planira poslužiti nuklearnim oružjem, piše The New Yorker.
Američke i europske tajne službe te IAEA složile su se da Iran već neko vrijeme provodi istraživanja u svrhu moguće proizvodnje nuklearnog oružja. Iran se brani od optužbi govoreći da provodi istraživanje isključivo u mirovne svrhe. Međutim, predsjednik Bush i ostali dužnosnici Bijele kuće novog iranskog predsjednika Mahmuda Ahamadinejdžada smatraju novim Adolfom Hitlerom i pribojavaju se da bi Iran mogao imati strateško oružje za novi svjetski rat. Dužnosnik blizak Pentagonu rekao je da je Bush apsolutno uvjeren da Iran radi bombu i da mora učiniti ono što niti jedan demokrat ni republikanac poslije njega neće imati hrabrosti. Prošlih nekoliko tjedana GWB je tajno razgovarao sa svojim savjetnicima i senatorima o zračnom udaru na Iran. Prema izvoru, uopće se nije raspravljalo o tome hoće li Amerikanci izvesti napad, već se govorilo o načinu i mogućoj strategiji, dakle napad na Iran već je odlučena stvar. Detaljnije...

Another Day In Empire
As Paul Craig Roberts, Assistant Secretary of the Treasury during the Reagan administration, notes in his latest column, the Straussian neocons are so hubris-filled and suicidally arrogant they now endanger the very prospect of life on the planet. “An article in the current issue of Foreign Affairs,” Roberts writes, “long regarded as a voice of the American foreign policy establishment, concludes that the Bush regime ‘is openly seeking primacy in every dimension of modern military technology, both in its conventional arsenal and in its nuclear forces.’ The article sests that the US has now achieved nuclear superiority and could succeed with a preemptive nuclear attack on both Russia and China. Considering the extreme delusions of the neoconservative warmongers who control the Bush regime, the publication of this article will encourage more aggressive assertions of American hegemony” and the distinct possibility of the end of human life (cockroaches will probably survive, as they have survived for several hundred million years).
“The Bush regime has succeeded in committing America to a belligerent and messianic foreign policy that means years of wars at a minimum and likely preemptive US nuclear attacks against other countries.”

But even if the Russians and Chinese don’t wipe out the somnolent, American Idol worshipping masses in response to a neocon “preemptive” nuclear strike, the cost of such insanity will make life for the average American miserable, if untenable.
“The classic method of war finance is inflation. The Romans destroyed the intrinsic value of their coinage with lead. When the US can no longer sell its bonds, it can print money,” thus creating decimating hyper-inflation. Neoliberal globalism continues to slow impoverish America.
“The US might have nuclear primacy, but it no longer has economic primacy. The US economy has been living on debt. In 2005 American consumers overspent their incomes for the first time since the Great Depression. The rising trade deficit is cutting into economic growth. Middle class jobs for Americans are being lost to offshore outsourcing and to foreigners brought in on work visas. Salaries in the jobs that remain are being forced down. Adjusted for inflation, starting salaries for university graduates are declining.
Business Week’s Michael Mandel (September 15, 2005) compared starting salaries in 2005 with those in 2001.” Most of us are locked in a downward spiral, a sort of slow-motion train wreck with horror and misery up ahead.

“Polls show that Americans are opposed to open borders and amnesties for illegals.
But a government willing to dictate to the world is willing to dictate to its own citizens.
We are witnessing the American citizen’s loss of his voice and the rise of concentrated power.
The primacy that the neocons are seeking over the world will prevail over the American people, too.”

Iran Focus
Tehran, Iran, Apr. 09 – Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Hamid-Reza Asefi blasted on Sunday what it described as a “psychological war” by the United States against the Islamic Republic after an American magazine reported that the Bush administration was considering carrying out military strikes against Iran’s nuclear sites.
In an article in The New Yorker magazine, acclaimed investigative journalist Seymour Hersh quoted anonymous current and former U.S. officials as saying that Washington had increased clandestine activities inside Iran and intensified planning for a possible major air attack on its nuclear sites.

“This psychological war is due to America’s anger and desperation”, Asefi said at his weekly press conference.
“[The U.S.] does not want Iran to reach an agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency, Europe, or Russia therefore it is carrying out a psychological war – something it has done before”, he said.

He added that Tehran was willing to face the consequences of its decision to continue its uranium enrichment program. “Our red line is our right to carry out the nuclear work”, Asefi said.

Crni skakac na G6...Bijeli top na E1...burninmadpuknucu
"Mat iz tri poteza"? Tesko...prije ce biti "Crni vuce mi gubimo"?

Kako ono kaze gore:"...nije pitanje hoce li, nego na koji nacin..."burninmad

If You Can't Win One War, Start Another!puknucu
- 04:35 - Komentari (9) - Isprintaj - #

06.04.2006., četvrtak

Ima li i Iran konja za trku?

Iran to test more weapons in Gulf wargames

Iran said it would test fire a powerful torpedo on Monday and more missiles on Tuesday as part of a week of wargames in the Gulf, a senior naval officer told state television. Iran rarely gives enough details of its military hardware for analysts to determine whether Tehran is making genuine advances or simply producing defiant propaganda while pressure ratchets up on its nuclear program.
Although Iran can draw on huge manpower, its naval and air-force technology is largely dismissed as outmoded.

"A powerful torpedo made by experts of the Revolutionary Guards will be test fired today in the Persian Gulf. Tomorrow, we will see other missile test firings by the Revolutionary Guards in the 'Great Prophet' war game," Rear Admiral Dehqani told state television, which only gave his family name.
Iran said in February last year that it had started a mass production line of torpedoes.

The Islamic Republic has three elderly Kilo class diesel-electric Russian submarines. These are capable of firing homing torpedoes but military analysts say these vessels are unsuited to modern naval combat. Iran has also started building midget submarines, which it says are capable of firing torpedoes.

"We are going to have very important news that will make our nation proud in the next few days," Dehqani added, without explaining. The week of wargames started on Friday.
Western nations have been watching developments in Iran's ballistic missile capabilities with concern amid a standoff over the Iranian nuclear program, which the West says is aimed at building atomic bombs.
Tehran says the program is only civilian.
Iran earlier in the wargames said it had tested a radar-evading missile and an underwater missile that can outpace enemy warships.

Iran has a commanding position over the Strait of Hormuz at the entrance to the Gulf, the world's main nexus for oil shipments.
The United States and Israel have consistently declined to rule out military action against Iran if Tehran fails to resolve the nuclear dispute through diplomatic means, reports Reuters.

Iran unveils secret super-weapons to scare the whole world
Whilst Teheran’s envoys try to convince the whole world that Iranian atomic energy is the most peaceful on the planet, and analysts guess whether Iran or Israel will be the first to try to erase the other from the political map, the Iranian military decided to flex its muscles somewhat. Last Friday large-scale naval exercises known as “The Great Prophet” began in the region of the Persian and Oman Gulfs, in which more than 17 thousand soldiers, about 1500 battleships, support aircraft, airborne interceptors, bombers, helicopters and missile installations were employed. As Iranian naval commander Morteza Safari declared, “These manoeuvres are being carried out to act as a counter-measure in the psychological war which has been unleashed against Iran, and to increase the defense capabilities of our army”.

Since then not a day has passed without state television IRI reporting on the testing of the latest type of super-weapon which has been developed by local inventors. So Tuesday’s main surprise was the mysterious “flying ghost-ship”. According to official sources, the way the ship’s body has been constructed means that it cannot be detected by sea and air-based radar systems. The ship itself is capable of rising above the surface of the water and is armed with missiles which are able to home in on their target with great accuracy even while the ship is moving. It is claimed that this technological miracle was developed and constructed from start to finish in Iran.

Russian military experts believe that this patchy description does not conceal a ship lying on an air cushion, but a military aerofoil boat – a flying machine capable of rising up into the air due to the so-called “surface effect” which involves streamlining the surface of the machine whilst in motion in close contact to the surface of the water. Thanks to this effect aerofoil boats have a significantly larger cargo-carrying capacity than an ordinary aeroplane. There was a similar type of machine in the Soviet naval forces, called the “Eaglet”.

Meanwhile, on Sunday Teheran announced the successful tests of the world's quickest torpedo, capable of reaching speeds of over 100 m/sec. As the Iranian military declared, not a single army in the world is able to defend itself against this underwater missile. However, it soon emerged that this weapon is not particularly new, and most importantly, in no way originated in Iran. International experts admitted that the torpedo was developed in the Soviet Union – it is called “Tornado” and does indeed travel at extremely high speeds, but is accurate only up to a range of 7km, which is more often than not insufficient for the demands of modern military action.

According to one version, Iran was able to get hold of the “Tornado” from Kyrgyzstan – it was there that these torpedoes were tested, on Lake Issyk-Kul, during Soviet times. After the Union’s collapse, experts think that Kyrgyzstan might have sold armaments to China, which in turn supplied them to Iran. However, Kanybek Tabaldiev, a senior representative of the Kirghiz company which produces torpedoes and other military technology, categorically denied the involvement of the Kirghiz military-industrial complex in selling modern weapons technology to Iran.

...ili barem magarca?

- 22:50 - Komentari (0) - Isprintaj - #

03.04.2006., ponedjeljak

Jos malo Irana za pocetnike...

UK vlada bi se trebala sastati u ponedjeljak u Ministarstvu obrane na tajnom (?) sastanku kako bi raspravila o mogućem napadu na Iran.
Politički analitičari jednoglasni su u ocjeni da iza mogućeg napada stoje prvenstveno interesi US koje na taj način namjeravaju suzbiti svaku mogućnost daljnjeg razvoja nuklearne bombe, osim ako teheranski vođe udovolje zahtjevima UN-a i zamrznu programe obogaćivanja urana. USA se boje da bi Iran nuklearnim oružjem mogao napasti Izrael ili američke snage u regiji.
Tu se prvenstveno misli na američku zračnu bazu u Turskoj (?!).
UN vjeruje da nastavak proizvodnje nuklearne bombe može samo dovesti do daljnje destabilizacije u regiji, što bi potaklo Egipt, Siriju i Saudijsku Arabiju da počnu raditi na razvoju nuklearnog oružja.
Prema tome, ako Iran i dalje nastavi ignorirati UN zahtjeve, to bi moglo dovesti do daljnjeg zaoštravanja krize.
Rasprava na tajnom sastanku britanskih dužnosnika će posebno biti usmjerena na moguće posljedice za Veliku Britaniju, ukoliko se priključi napadu. Britance najviše zanima kakav bi utjecaj napad imao na britanske interese u Iraku i Afganistanu koji graniče s Iranom.
Osim toga, Britance zabrinjava i to što se u južnom Iraku nalaze njihove snage, a stanovnici južnog Iraka povezani su s Irancima.
Prema pisanju Sunday Telegrapha, neće biti invazije na Iran, već će sva nuklearna postrojenja i mjesta gdje se radi nuklearno oružje (?!) biti uništena.
Povod za takvu odluku je taj što se napad na irački nuklearni reaktor 1981. godine pokazao kao vrlo učinkovit.

Sunday Telegraph: Detaljnije...

- 03:23 - Komentari (6) - Isprintaj - #

02.04.2006., nedjelja

Big Bad Wolf...

IRAN bi bio spreman koristiti svoje tajne agente i ekipe Hezbollaha radi vođenja terorističkih operacija u svijetu u slučaju američkog napada na nuklearna postrojenja, priopćili su američki stručnjaci za kontra-špijunažu, javlja u nedjelju Washington Post.

Iran bi prvo vodio napade na američke ciljeve u Iraku a potom se pozabavio američkim civilima u SAD-u, Europi i drugdje, piše dnevnik navodeći izjave neimenovanih američkih dužnosnika iz obavještajnih službi.

Američki stručnjaci odbili su podastrijeti dokaze kojima raspolažu ali ta mogućnost "oduzima puno vremena" u američkim obavještajnim agencijama, pišu novine citirajući visokog američkog dužnosnika.

...i onda je svizac zamotao cokoladu...

- 15:58 - Komentari (0) - Isprintaj - #

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burninmadil Empire

Please allow me to introduce myself
I'm a man of wealth and taste
I've been around for a long, long year
Stole many a man's soul and faith

And I was 'round when Jesus Christ
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I stuck around St. Petersburg
When I saw it was a time for a change
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Anastasia screamed in vain

I rode a tank,
Held a general's rank
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I watched with glee
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I shouted out,
"Who killed the Kennedys?"
When after all,
It was you and me

Let me please introduce myself
I'm a man of wealth and taste
And I laid traps for troubadours
Who get killed before they reached Bombay

Just as every cop is a criminal
And all the sinners saints
As heads is tails, just call me Lucifer
'Cause I'm in need of some restraint

So if you meet me, have some courtesy
Have some sympathy, and some taste
Use all your well-learned politesse
Or I'll lay your soul to waste

Pleased to meet you,
Hope you guessed my name,
But what's puzzling you
Is the nature of my game...

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