Oil Storms

29.10.2005., subota

Zrtva pjesaka ili pocetak domino efekta?

Radi se o Cheney-ovom Cheney-u, koliko daleko ce ici istraga ovisit ce vjerovatno i o 'vanjskim' utjecajima tj. treba hitno neki dogadjaj skrenuti paznju s ovoga, trazimo kandidate sirom svijeta (ali i doma, nije bitno).
Cijena? Prava sitnica...

Cheney Aide Libby Is Indicted - Rove Spared But Remains Under Scrutiny

I. Lewis "Scooter" Libby, Vice President Cheney's chief of staff, was indicted yesterday on charges of lying to federal investigators and obstructing justice in the 22-month CIA leak investigation. Libby, the first sitting White House aide charged with a crime in recent history, resigned. Karl Rove, the president's top strategist, narrowly escaped indictment after providing new information during eleventh-hour negotiations with Special Counsel Patrick J. Fitzgerald but could still be charged in the case, according to three people familiar with the talks. A source close to Rove said the senior strategist's fate will be known soon.

Libby was one of the most powerful staff members in government and Cheney's closest adviser. Libby faces up to 30 years in prison and $1.25 million in fines if convicted of two counts of making false statements, two counts of perjury and one count of obstructing justice in the secretive probe that rattled the White House and rekindled the debate over the Iraq war. Libby issued a statement through his attorney, Joseph Tate, in which he said: "I am confident that at the end of this process I will be completely and totally exonerated."

Read More

- 16:06 - Komentari (3) - Isprintaj - #

25.10.2005., utorak

Building a puzzle...

How to build a puzzle? Piece by piece, of course...

Neocons and U.N. Draw a Bead on Syria (Read More)
Once again, we must assume the Syrians are dunderheads so murderous and impulsive as to be unable to control themselves, going right ahead and killing Rafiq Hariri, irrespective of the consequences. In fact, if we are to believe the United Nations—a disgusting lickspittle for neocon interests on several different occasions—the pernicious conspiracy to murder Hariri runs right up the Syrian totem pole of power to none other than the family of Bashar Assad, the Syrian president. According to the Independent, the politically motivated UN “report says senior Syrian and Lebanese security officials were directly involved in the killing of Hariri in February and planned it over many weeks. The missing names are of Asef Shawkat, President Bashar Assad’s brother-in-law who is Syria’s intelligence chief, and his brother, Maher Assad.”

Rice: Syria Should Get Serious About Probe (Read More)
OTTAWA, Canada (AP) - Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said Monday that Syria should drop its ``nonchalant attitude'' about a United Nations report implicating it in a political killing, but she indicated the United States may be willing to put off a drive for tough international sanctions.
Speaking to reporters en route to a brief diplomatic visit in Canada, Rice said Syria must take seriously last week's findings from U.N. investigator Detlev Mehlis into the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hirari.
The world ``must make very clear to the Syrians that this is a really serious matter and that their nonchalant attitude, their efforts to discredit the investigation ... are not the attitude of the international community,'' Rice said.

Bush administration maps plans for U.N. resolution pressuring Syria in Hariri probe [AP]
Adopting a fast-paced strategy, the Bush administration is gathering support for a U.N. Security Council resolution demanding Syria's cooperation in an investigation into the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. The target date for Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and foreign ministers to agree on a resolution is next Monday in New York.
Rice says Syria should get serious about probe into Lebanese leader's killing. "Everybody thinks that certainly a resolution would be appropriate with respect to this report, at least in the initial discussions that we have had among our close allies," State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said. The report, distributed last week by U.N. investigator Detlev Mehlis, a German prosecutor, concluded Hariri could not have been assassinated without the collusion of top Syrian intelligence officials. Twenty other people also died in the car bombing last February in Beirut. Syria has hotly disputed the findings as political motivated and stemming from U.S. displeasure with its opposition to the war in Iraq. Civil servants and students massed in the streets of Damascus on Monday to protest the report. U.S. ambassador John R. Bolton and other Security Council ambassadors are due to meet on Tuesday. Punitive economic measures have not been ruled out. Bolton said in New York, "We will certainly insist on Syrian cooperation. This is true-confessions time for the government of Syria. No more obstruction. No more half-measures." White House spokesman Scott McClellan called the report "very troubling" and said President Bush had directed Rice to arrange a Council meeting at the earliest possible date. "The Security Council needs to take it up at a high level," McClellan said. The Bush administration was quickly backed by Britain, its closest partner. Foreign Secretary Jack Straw accompanied Rice last weekend on a homecoming trip to Alabama and discussed strategy with her.
But Russia's U.N. Ambassador said, "My government is always very cautious with such sensitive issues as Syria-Lebanon." And China's ambassador said the U.N. report needed further study. Russia and China have the power to veto any resolution.

Cooming Soon-Syriana
Oil industry thriller debuts in December with George Clooney, Matt Damon, William Hurt, etc.
Novi "Mel Gibson konspirativac" ili samo predigra (npr. test za UN) za Final Oil Game?

Sirija je inace na putu naftovoda koji je vodio/vodi od Mosula u Iraku do Haife (Izrael), dakle izlazak na Sredozemlje (izbjegava se i Perzijski zaljev i Bospor!), jedini problem je sto Sirija i Izrael nisu bas u "najzdravijim" odnosima zadnjih....hmmm...godina? desetljeca?
Golanska visoravan je kljuc tih odnosa i prava strateska tocka oko koje ce se vrtiti 'pregovaranje' sa Sirijom.

p.s. na ovom mjestu bi mozda dosao [+] koji se otvara i zatvara po zelji, ali nisam profesionalac kao neki koji to znaju 'postavit' pa prekidam do slijedeceg nastavka...koji mozda uvuce i Bechtel (cudno, ha?) u pricu o Golanskoj visoravni

- 17:25 - Komentari (5) - Isprintaj - #

21.10.2005., petak

Beating around another Bush ili...

...sto je pravi covjek na pravom mjestu!

Po svim 'prognozama' Wilma ce vjerovatno na istok prema Floridi (navodno obzirom na stanje atmosfere iznad sjevernog dijela Meksiskog zaljeva tj. na tzv. Jet Stream koji je trenutno iznad NA kontinenta).

Bilo kako bilo Florida je spremna na jos jedan uragan ove sezone, guverner je rekao da nema-cega-nema i da su oni spremni, vjezba NNNI "Wilma" na Floridi moze poceti, National Guard je spremna...

Uglavnom, nacija se drzi u konstantnom strahu (teroristi, prljave bombe, bolesti, uragani, svemirci-prekrizi neprimijenjivo!), u napetosti da se svaki cas nesto moze dogodit pa onda po sifra: pilici-kvocka i oni tako reagiraju.
Da citiram FDR-a: "Nothing to fear but fear itself!"

Malo M-S-M (ovaj put Washington Post):
Emergency officials issued the first evacuation orders for the Florida mainland on Friday in advance of slow-moving but powerful Hurricane Wilma, and Keys residents were also asked to start leaving. The mandatory order, effective at noon, covered part of the Gulf Coast town of Naples and the snowbird enclave of Marco Island. It was not immediately clear how many residents were affected, Collier County emergency management spokeswoman Jaime Sarbaugh said, but early Friday, northbound traffic out of the Naples and Fort Myers area was backed up for at least 10 miles on Interstate 75.
"Your life is much more important than your things," Sarbaugh said.
At 11 a.m. EDT, Wilma had wind of 145 mph, and its inner eyewall had reached Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, where the storm was expected to hover longer than previously predicted. Landfall somewhere on Florida's western coast was likely to come Monday afternoon, forecasters said. Still, officials encouraged island residents "to voluntarily evacuate because of the potential of overcrowded highways." The Monroe County officials will announce a mandatory evacuation after it's clearer when Wilma's weather will reach the low-lying chain. The voluntary evacuation for residents came two days after tourists were directed to leave the Keys, leaving quiet streets and little activity. Many residents have already prepared their homes.

Wilma's slower forward pace could mean that the storm will be weaker when it reaches Florida, though the weather service was labeling it as "extremely dangerous." Authorities took advantage of the unexpected extra day to stockpile emergency supplies. Max Mayfield, director of the hurricane center, said the slowdown would likely weaken Wilma from a Category 4 storm to a Category 3 or less before making landfall in the United States."The timing is certainly working in our favor," Mayfield said. But he stressed that Wilma probably would still be a strong hurricane with a powerful storm surge when it reaches Florida.
After its strike on Yucatan _ which Mayfield said could cause catastrophic damage _ Wilma was expected to turn sharply northeast toward Florida as it is pushed by the westerlies, the strong wind current that generally blows toward the east.
Mayfield said Wilma is unusually large, with an eye 38 miles wide and tropical storm-force winds extending out some 200 miles from the center that could cause widespread damage. "Don't just focus on the eye of the hurricane," Mayfield said.
State meteorologist Ben Nelson warned that Wilma could produce a storm surge of 12 to 17 feet. Although Wilma was expected to approach Florida from the west, forecasters warned that major cities on the peninsula's Atlantic Coast, including Miami, Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach could be hit by strong wind and heavy rain.
The Federal Emergency Management Agency was positioning emergency materials in Jacksonville, Lakeland and Homestead. FEMA acting chief R. David Paulison said the agency has 150 truckloads of ice and 150 truckloads of water, and the Red Cross has 200,000 meals available. "We are ready for the storm, as much as you can be," Paulison said in Washington.

Gov. Jeb Bush declared a state of emergency Thursday. He said the state had food, water, ice and other supplies ready and disaster-response teams that included up to 7,500 National Guard members standing by.
"We are battle-tested, well-resourced, well-trained," he said.
The governor urged people not to hoard gasoline, which frequently causes long lines at gas stations and some to run out of fuel. Bush said an estimated 200 million gallons of fuel were available at Florida ports, an adequate supply.

Predlazem slogan za slijedece izbore (2008-ukoliko se uopce odrze!):

Svi Za Jeb-a!
Za Jeb Za Sve!

- 17:55 - Komentari (2) - Isprintaj - #

20.10.2005., četvrtak

Cekajuci Wilmu...

Dok cekamo da se Wilma odluci (samoinicijativno, nicim izazvana, minding her own business) nakon sto se provuce kroz Yucatan Channel izmedju Kube i Mexica hoce li roknut po Floridi desno ili po jos uvijek onesposobljenim platformama i rafinarijama lijevo ('levo iti ne!') evo nekoliko natuknica za razmisljanje o tome da li je trenutno u US veci problem Natural gas nego Oil.
Katrina i Rita su vjerovatno samo razotkrile tu cinjenicu, ali su ujedno i pomogle da se stanje pogorsa, dakle:

1. Plin je kljucni energetski i proizvodni materijal u velikom dijelu kemijske industrije

2. Proizvodnja plina je bila na gornjoj granici iskoristenja (prije uragana)

3. Nove kolicine plina moraju doci izvana, nema vise poznatih rezervi u US (izmedju ostalog zato je i proguran "Energy Policy Act of 2005")

Novi izvori?
4. Nije izvediv uvoz Natural Gas na sjevernoamericki kontinent osim u ukapljenom obliku (LG)

Kamo i kako?
5. Za uvoz LG trebaju novi terminali i naravno treba vremena (faktor cijene ne uzimam trenutno u obzir)

Novi Terminali

Evo sto kaze Andrew Liveris, CEO Dow Chemical:

Shortages may develop for plastic milk and detergent bottles, automobile tires, disposable diaper liners and bread bags because of high natural gas prices and hurricane-hit chemical plants, the head of Dow Chemical Co. said on Thursday. Most chemical plants in the US Gulf Coast are closed or operating at reduced rates since Hurricane Rita hit the Texas-Louisiana border on Sept. 24, Andrew Liveris, told the Senate Energy Committee. He testified at a hearing on hurricane damage to energy production, processing and transportation.

Liveris commented that the price of U.S. natural gas, which was approximately $2/million BTUs only six years ago, had exceeded $6 by February of this year, increased to $10 in the days just prior to Hurricane Katrina - and then jumped to $12 immediately after Katrina struck the U.S. Gulf Coast. "The price of natural gas, once $2.00 per million BTUs, is now $14.00, which is the equivalent of $7.00 per gallon for the gas we put in our cars," Liveris said. "This renders the U.S. chemical industry - which uses natural gas as both a fuel and a raw material — simply uncompetitive with the rest of the world."

"Soon the loss of chemical manufacturing in the Gulf will ripple through the economy in the form of shortages and higher prices," Liveris said. Some of the products that may develop shortages include widely used consumer goods such as plastic bottles and bags, he said. "The short-term outlook for natural gas consumers is grim," he said. "If prices remain at or near current levels, manufacturers will be driven out of the market and many may not return."

The US government should help repair damaged natural gas processing plants and declare a "national emergency" to make consumers aware of supply problems triggered by the storms, Liveris said. The government should dispatch the Coast Guard, Army Corps of Engineers and other federal experts to help repair damaged gas processing plants on the Louisiana coast, which purify natural gas before it can be shipped in pipelines, he said. The Energy Information Administration said 21 processing plants are closed, half due to lack of electricity and half due to hurricane damage. "Help is needed to transport and house repair crews, pump out the plants, restore power, repair damages and resume operations," Liveris said.
The government should also "declare a national emergency" to shock consumers into awareness of tight supplies, he said.

stize zima!!!

Dakle, gradjani smanjiti grijanje stanova i kuca i poceti stediti za prezivjeti zimu...u medjuvremenu su se pocele vrtiti nove TV reklame za prodaju automobila koje objavljuju i potrosnju goriva...vec vidim zabrinute komentare po Midwestu: wow, pa zar smo do toga dosli da moramo mislit koliko nam trosi Hummer (ili Suburban, whatever!)!?

"Stabilizacija drugovi, stabilizacija..."

- 01:15 - Komentari (5) - Isprintaj - #

17.10.2005., ponedjeljak

Malo M-S-M vijesti

New tropical storm in the Caribbean could threaten already beleaguered Gulf of Mexico production. Oil prices leapt more than 2 percent early Monday as a new storm forming in the Caribbean took aim at the Gulf of Mexico, threatening to damage oil platforms for a third time this year.
Rising tensions in Iran, the world's fourth-biggest oil producer, also buoyed prices after twin bombings in the southwest oil city of Ahvaz, which Tehran blamed on Britain. At 5:20 a.m. ET (Oct.17), U.S. crude soared $1.65 a barrel to $64.28 in electronic trading. London Brent crude was up $1.47 to $60.95 a barrel.
Prices hit a 10-week low of $60.35 last week on signs high prices were cutting into consumption.

Oil surges on Wilma worries
Concerns about waning demand were eclipsedn Monday by Tropical Storm Wilma, located 155 miles southeast of Grand Cayman, which the U.S. National Hurricane Center said could move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by the end of this week. But it also warned that directional currents were weak and "erratic motion" was possible in the coming days.
"It certainly could have an impact on the production and refineries that are up and running today and it certainly would have an impact on the recovery," ConocoPhillips (COP.N) Chairman Jim Mulva told Reuters on Sunday.
Hurricanes Katrina and Rita tore through the Gulf and into the coast in August and September, sharply curtailing oil and gas production as well as refinery operations.
As of Friday, some 67 percent of U.S. oil production from the region remained shut while nearly 10 percent of U.S. refining capacity, or 1.63 million barrels per day (bpd), was also idle, keeping traders on edge over tightening oil product supplies.
The new named storm is this year's 21st, tying a record from 1933 with a month and a half still left in the Atlantic basin hurricane season.

Concern about Iran
Geopolitical anxiety moved up a notch in OPEC-member Iran, where five people were killed and more than 80 wounded when homemade bombs detonated in garbage bins Saturday. "We are very suspicious about the role of British forces in perpetrating such terrorist acts," the ISNA student news agency quoted Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as saying.
Britain, which has more than 8,000 troops across the border in southern Iraq, has denied any link with the bombs or with a string of attacks this year in Khuzestan province, the center of Iran's oil industry. But the incident has increased tensions.
Oil traders have been on tenterhooks over Iran since the summer as Tehran's persistent pursuit of its controversial nuclear program puts it at odds with the United States, but analysts said Washington might be reluctant to press the issue.

Dealers are also watchful for signs that record energy costs are beginning to eat into economic growth or fueling inflation, factors that could undermine the market's demand-driven rally. Fears that oil consumption growth may stall amid high prices have helped knock U.S. crude down from its $70.85 a barrel record-high at the end of August, although prices are still up 47 percent since January and double what they were two years ago.

Uglavnom, mislim da je kod dealera jos uvijek prisutna tendencija 'go with the flow' dakle 'sto rade drugi to cu i ja', sto dodatno potencira nestabilnost cijena nafte, uz naravno ovakve inpute od strane MainStreamMedia i razvoj situacije oko Irana i PetroEuro burze...rok je sve kraci, treba vec netko krenut u akciju, zasto ne britanci, njih ionako treba izvuci iz Iraka cim prije radi 'mira u kuci'...

- 13:45 - Komentari (3) - Isprintaj - #

06.10.2005., četvrtak

Novi problem-Natural Gas Supply

Ocekujuci pocetak sezone grijanja (iako je u US jos uvijek toplo, s temperaturama od 20 do 25 stupnjeva) i prateci rezultate popravka unistenih postrojenja prilikom Katrine i pogotovo Rite (koje ce izbaciti npr. rafinerije iz upotrebe za slijedecih nekoliko mjeseci), problem koji se pojavljuje, a o kojem je vec bilo rijeci je Natural Gas...
Proizvodnja u US je bila na 90% kapaciteta i nema mogucnosti za daljnji porast, jedina mogucnost povecanja kolicina je uvoz prirodnog plina (ukapljenog, naravno) uglavnom kroz-pogodite koje podrucje!
Osim sto je to trenutno neizvedivo, ostaje i problem kapaciteta tog uvoza jer US za to mora izgraditi 6-8 novih terminala do 2010. i jos nekoliko u razdoblju nakon 2010.
Problem troskova i cijene takvog plina ostavljam za neki od slijedecih postova...

The Katrina and Rita ripples on the natural gas market
Natural gas for November delivery rose 20.7 cents to a record $14.224 per million British thermal units on the NYME Tuesday afternoon after Interior Secretary Gale Norton warned it would probably take months before repairs to oil and gas production facilities in the Gulf of Mexico region would return production from that key region to normal. The Minerals Management Service reported that Gulf oil and gas production remains severely restricted, with 90% of the oil and over 70% of natural gas still off-line now a week and a half after Hurricane Rita came ashore.

The gas market was already stretched thin by heavy demand from power generators over the summer, but the double whammy of damage to production facilities from Hurricanes Katrina and Rita over the past month have jolted the natural gas market. As a result, futures contracts on the Nymex have nearly doubled since late July. The one good piece of news from the oil and gas markets was that crude oil, gasoline and heating-oil futures continue to weaken in the face of high pump prices and resultant diminished U.S. gasoline consumption in recent weeks. Oil futures fell for the third straight session on the Nymex as November light, sweet crude-oil futures slid $1.57 to $63.90 a barrel, the lowest price since mid-September.

Dakle, prosjecnom Amerikancu ostaje nada da ce zima biti blaga...hm, mozda da vidimo jel Indijanci navlace drva?

...nastavak slijedi...

- 01:53 - Komentari (8) - Isprintaj - #

05.10.2005., srijeda

Jos malo o vojnoj hunti pa 'nastavljamo u revijalnom tonu...'

Kao idealni nastavak uspostave vojnog rezima pokazuje se pojava pticje gripe, koju ce naravno sprijeciti uspostava karantene na podrucjima koja ce biti zahvacena istom. Evo sto kaze genijalni strateg GWB:

Bush proposes using military in bird flu pandemic

WASHINGTON (Tue Oct 4, 2005, Reuters) - President George W. Bush sested using the military to contain any epidemic of avian influenza on Tuesday, saying Congress needs to consider the possibility. He said the military, perhaps the National Guard, might be needed to enforce quarantines if the feared H5N1 bird flu virus changes enough to cause widespread human infection.
"If we had an outbreak somewhere in the United States, do we not then quarantine that part of the country? And how do you, then, enforce a quarantine?" Bush asked at a news conference.

"It's one thing to shut down airplanes. It's another thing to prevent people from coming in to get exposed to the avian flu. And who best to be able to effect a quarantine?" Bush added. "One option is the use of a military that's able to plan and move. So that's why I put it on the table. I think it's an important debate for Congress to have."

Bird flu has killed more than 60 people in four Asian nations since late 2003 and has been found in birds in Russia and Europe. Experts fear that the H5N1 bird flu virus, which appears to be highly fatal when it infects people, will develop the ability to pass easily from person to person and would cause a pandemic that would kill millions. He noted that some governors may object to the federal government commandeering the National Guard, which is under state command in most circumstances.

"But Congress needs to take a look at circumstances that may need to vest the capacity of the president to move beyond that debate. And one such catastrophe or one such challenge could be an avian flu outbreak," Bush said. Health experts are working to develop vaccines that would protect against the H5N1 strain of flu, because current influenza vaccines will not. And countries are also developing stockpiles of drugs that can reduce the risk of serious disease or even sometimes prevent infection -- but supplies and manufacturing capacity are both limited.

Bush said he was concerned and involved in planning for an influenza pandemic, which experts say will definitely come, although they cannot predict when or whether it will be H5N1 or some other virus.

"And I think the president ought to have all options on the table to understand what the consequences are -- all assets on the table, not options -- assets on the table to be able to deal with something this significant," he said.

...all assets on the table...or wherever we might need them...right, Condi?

- 03:04 - Komentari (5) - Isprintaj - #

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burninmadil Empire

Please allow me to introduce myself
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I've been around for a long, long year
Stole many a man's soul and faith

And I was 'round when Jesus Christ
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Just as every cop is a criminal
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So if you meet me, have some courtesy
Have some sympathy, and some taste
Use all your well-learned politesse
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Pleased to meet you,
Hope you guessed my name,
But what's puzzling you
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