Pregled posta

Dok cekamo da se Wilma odluci (samoinicijativno, nicim izazvana, minding her own business) nakon sto se provuce kroz Yucatan Channel izmedju Kube i Mexica hoce li roknut po Floridi desno ili po jos uvijek onesposobljenim platformama i rafinarijama lijevo ('levo iti ne!') evo nekoliko natuknica za razmisljanje o tome da li je trenutno u US veci problem Natural gas nego Oil.
Katrina i Rita su vjerovatno samo razotkrile tu cinjenicu, ali su ujedno i pomogle da se stanje pogorsa, dakle:

1. Plin je kljucni energetski i proizvodni materijal u velikom dijelu kemijske industrije

2. Proizvodnja plina je bila na gornjoj granici iskoristenja (prije uragana)

3. Nove kolicine plina moraju doci izvana, nema vise poznatih rezervi u US (izmedju ostalog zato je i proguran "Energy Policy Act of 2005")

4. Nije izvediv uvoz Natural Gas na sjevernoamericki kontinent osim u ukapljenom obliku (LG)

5. Za uvoz LG trebaju novi terminali i naravno treba vremena (faktor cijene ne uzimam trenutno u obzir)

Evo sto kaze Andrew Liveris, CEO Dow Chemical:

Shortages may develop for plastic milk and detergent bottles, automobile tires, disposable diaper liners and bread bags because of high natural gas prices and hurricane-hit chemical plants, the head of Dow Chemical Co. said on Thursday. Most chemical plants in the US Gulf Coast are closed or operating at reduced rates since Hurricane Rita hit the Texas-Louisiana border on Sept. 24, Andrew Liveris, told the Senate Energy Committee. He testified at a hearing on hurricane damage to energy production, processing and transportation.

Liveris commented that the price of U.S. natural gas, which was approximately $2/million BTUs only six years ago, had exceeded $6 by February of this year, increased to $10 in the days just prior to Hurricane Katrina - and then jumped to $12 immediately after Katrina struck the U.S. Gulf Coast. "The price of natural gas, once $2.00 per million BTUs, is now $14.00, which is the equivalent of $7.00 per gallon for the gas we put in our cars," Liveris said. "This renders the U.S. chemical industry - which uses natural gas as both a fuel and a raw material — simply uncompetitive with the rest of the world."

"Soon the loss of chemical manufacturing in the Gulf will ripple through the economy in the form of shortages and higher prices," Liveris said. Some of the products that may develop shortages include widely used consumer goods such as plastic bottles and bags, he said. "The short-term outlook for natural gas consumers is grim," he said. "If prices remain at or near current levels, manufacturers will be driven out of the market and many may not return."

The US government should help repair damaged natural gas processing plants and declare a "national emergency" to make consumers aware of supply problems triggered by the storms, Liveris said. The government should dispatch the Coast Guard, Army Corps of Engineers and other federal experts to help repair damaged gas processing plants on the Louisiana coast, which purify natural gas before it can be shipped in pipelines, he said. The Energy Information Administration said 21 processing plants are closed, half due to lack of electricity and half due to hurricane damage. "Help is needed to transport and house repair crews, pump out the plants, restore power, repair damages and resume operations," Liveris said.
The government should also "declare a national emergency" to shock consumers into awareness of tight supplies, he said.