Long triangle winter to the property market

Yesterday, by our university and Shanghai, zhejiang university, the wealth of real estate research organization jointly sponsored by the institute of real estate in Yangtze river delta ning held conference, announced the 2011 Shanghai su zhejiang the real estate market shanghai house for rent development report, of which about jiangsu report been concerned.

The report by the institute of Yangtze river delta real estate, nanjing university real estate research center made together. The report said last year that a series of adjustment and control policies of the property market in jiangsu effect significantly, home sales drop area significantly, house prices has presented stability have fall, or of their situation.

Conference, three economics experts predict 2012 house prices will fall.

This year the market will periodically hit bottom

Nanjing university research GaoBo, director of the center for real estate

Jiangsu market sales last year has shrunk, house prices still going up, this strange phenomenon is caused P- make first, nanjing and wuxi city, etc P-, investment demand to the middle of jiangsu province, such as the city P- not transfer, the second is the urbanization rate in jiangsu whole has exceeded 60%, the lowest of jiangsu province have reached 50% the left and right sides, it shows that the market is appeared certain saturated, so sales appeared to atrophy.

From the real estate market of operation cycle look, 2012 in short cycle period and at the downside stage, so 2012 market will remain in the downside stage. First is the growth of investment in real estate development is not optimistic, and the last year by security room construction doubling of its influence, the real estate development investment rose by nearly 30%, this year guarantee room construction scale down, and many still also watching the developers, and can't easily give land, this determines the development of real estate investment this year growth is not optimistic; Next is the sales, sales of commercial property slump trend this year is hard to change, and will appear periodically hit bottom, and that is, from the current recession conditions progressively toward depression, the agent of the process is sure to experience; To see house price, the housing cycle, the effects of the housing prices this year also can appear certain callback.

Put in the first half of the second half see steadily

Shanghai university of finance and economics of institute of real estate WangHongWei

The whole, 2011 Shanghai can say is a quantity falls to rise, but in fact the rise is mainly September before, 10 months, Shanghai is a quantity falls, price falls more severe, the fourth quarter is close to 14% month-on-month drop....... Nanjing relatively reasonable prices for some, falling process should be substantial than Shanghai lags behind, is expected to be in the first quarter of this year or the second quarter reflected.

For the whole of 2012, our judgment is. There are three reasons why, first of all, the urbanization level of Shanghai has to a very high level, increasing demand rely mainly on the floating population; Second, the Shanghai last year of house property tax and a series of control policy, the investment demand has been effectively control; Third, it is nearly two years of large-scale construction of affordable housing, 2012 will start to commodity house market impact.

Watch the second half is based on the steady fine-tuning, and on the basis of experience suggests that economic cold is hot property market, for Shanghai, zhejiang's GDP has for many years in the bottom, face structure transformation, to the property market will control policy for fine-tuning, Shanghai recently has begun, such as for just the past to interest rates, to buy secondhand room were also tax policy adjustment, etc.

In 2012, facing a good investment opportunities

Zhejiang university, director of the center for real estate research JiaShengHua

About 2012 market regulation, I think severe regulation has really started to improve, measures, such as the recent macroeconomic and financial policies have begun to fine-tune, local governments are beginning to perfect control policies.

On the market in 2012, and should be a recession in the early period of the late and recovery, this also is the bottom of the market and the bottom of the faith, wait until 2013, 2014 year again looking back on it, 2012 will be the bottom of the market. To the person that buy a house and room for enterprises, 2012 is a good investment opportunity. This year the volume of sales villa in shanghai market in general should last year and almost and prices will further have callback, back up, annulus comparing words, continue to fall in the first half, the second half will stabilize.