23
četvrtak
veljača
2012
Shanghai second-hand housing market has staged a strong recovery
Since February, the second-hand housing market has staged a strong recovery, with a look at volume and turnover grow exponentially, especially just need room to reproduce the active focus on the regional market.
Strong market performance in the suburbs of the city region
During the 21st century real estate regional apartment in shanghai market center statistics show that in 2012 after the Spring Festival period of three weeks (January 30-February 19), the city's second-hand housing turnover rebounded significantly, up to before the Spring Festival three weeks (January 2 - in January 22) the level of 2.3-2.4 times; and close to the period of three weeks after the Spring Festival last year (February 7, 2011 - February 27) the level of 80-90 percent. From the cycle-by-week point of view the level of observation, showing the trend of continuous improvement, the Festival the third week of turnover levels for the first two weeks of 1.23 times and 1.21 times.
Han yu real estate market research department in February, second-hand housing transactions data show that the turnover of property of more than 80% of the total price of 150 million and below, the turnover region is almost entirely Songjiang, Minhang, Qingpu, Pudong and Baoshan peripheral plate . Second-hand room with a look at the Festival rebounded significantly, which Minhang, Songjiang showings amount of increase of 60 percent to 70 percent, the Pudong area with a look at the amount of growth is also more than 50%.
Real estate market research manager, Han Yu-wei, almost the vast majority of the final sale of the buyers are considering or rigid demand out of self-occupied. The low-end transaction volume to recover first in line with previous years, seasonal pattern. Low-end market just need to pick up to some extent that of the basic will be able to represent the entire second-hand housing market, the main demand began to re-release.
Bargaining space shrunk two-thirds
According to Xu Min, manager of the Shanghai the Centaline Expo home branch, after the Spring Festival, the store visitor volume continued strong buyers into the market enthusiasm is still not high, but this situation began to change after the fifteenth day, the trading volume of nearly 3 fold increase. Recent stores with than years ago, an increase of 300%, with a population, 80 percent for married housing needs, demand area is mainly concentrated in the 50-80 square meter one-bedroom or two bedrooms. The supply side, the store listed on the enthusiasm is still high years after listing the amount has been relatively stable. Most listings bargaining space for 3% to 5% and 10% to 15%, while this value in the year ago. But the downturn in the second half of last year's turnover, compared to second-hand house prices last year has been a marked decline, for example, a set of 56 square meters of housing availability, the current listing price 1.05 million yuan, while in August last year, listed The price reached $ 1.3 million.
Shanghai Zhongyuan, director of research and consulting Song Yong told reporters that the three forest blocks for nearly a week trading volume nearly three times the explosive growth. Demand marriage room, accounting for 80% of the volume in the room choice, while a room, two of the main room. New homes development of the plate has been the peak of the supply shock brought by the new house is not obvious. Years later, the bargaining space under the preferential tax policies in line with the reduced from 10% to 15% to 3% to 5%, which makes part just need buyers psychological tensions, driven by the volume rebound.
Yellow River Tao, 21 century real estate, regional analysts said that a longer period due to the current second-hand housing transactions, with a time delay characteristics,apartment in shanghai and adjustment for ordinary residential standards, many buyers will be signing date was delayed until March and beyond. The current band is expected to rise, will also have a second-hand housing turnover in March and April, to a certain boost.
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15
srijeda
veljača
2012
Market regulation policy of non-toys
The Wuhu housing subsidies implementation of the New Deal four days before she was stopped, which is par for the course. Prior to this, Foshan, the property market "relaxation Order from the publisher to a halt less than 12 hours. From the various reports, there are three cities in the property apartment in shanghai market policy flip-flop if the reason is not proven, effective supervision, obviously there are many cities will be staged similar farce, and public policy to become child's play.
Zhongshan City, the official denied the relaxation of market regulation, to improve the limit does not mean that the relaxed regulation, strict regulation of the determination will not be changed. Obviously, this is a quibble of words. Whether price controls are reasonable, but limit the standard increase is to relax the regulation. Then observed over the past several examples, we can easily find the property market policy flip-flop probably gone through the introduction of "deregulation order" to justify the deregulation order "to halt the deregulation order" three.
The local property market why the frequent introduction of "deregulation order"? A well-known land finance. In fact, in addition to this reason, there are many underlying causes, for example, say, the introduction of the "relaxation make three kinds of test: First, to test public opinion attention; to test the public reaction; is to test the upper attitude. Said that the introduction of the deregulation order "behind in Wuhu, central inspection teams on the 11th arrived in Wuhu, Wuhu is not an explanation - whether the inspection teams with the New Deal.
In addition, the reasons for the introduction of the deregulation order ": that the price control objectives have been achieved or is not difficult to achieve; think the downward trend in prices has been set, the limit not limited to purchase limit not limited to price is not important; especially, lack of long-term control policies, which leads to the temporary introduction of the policy of restriction, limit, credit limit, plus to give local governments the power of the purchase, but did not restrict local government is free to the introduction of the "relaxation" or to cancel the purchase power, and so, give local governments the opportunity to privately relax.
In my opinion, are frequent causes of the deregulation order "to test public opinion is probably the most important reason, because of the introduction of" deregulation order "means that the market regulation may come to naught, if prices rebound again, the public housing interests achieve more remote. So relaxed so that the most intense reaction of public opinion, it will affect the public reaction to the attention of public opinion. However, the property market "deregulation order" can not always test public opinion, because the test of public opinion not only reflects the local governments do not respect public opinion, and reflects the use of power is too casual, not to pay attention to their own credibility. It stands to reason that any introduction of a public policy, the adjustment is very serious, not to be flip-flop, but we see the property market capricious farce staged frequent, we say that the test site of the property market has become public policy? Public policy has become free to play with toys?
From the source in my opinion, we must put an end to the vagaries of the property market policies, that is, not only as soon as possible long-term policies (such as property tax, vacant housing tax) to replace the short-term policy for the local government did not free to change the purchase of the policy limit opportunities; from the policies of the program up to limit the arbitrariness of the local government, for example, to solicit public opinion in the decision-making process; In addition, as soon as possible so that prices return to reasonable levels, even if local governments want to relax, but also reach the purpose of .
To be sure, not only Zhongshan and other cities without permission relax regulation, not just the Wuhu city flip-flop, there will be some cities follow suit, which prompted us, the state authorities must quickly clear the property the purchase limit limit credit policy can not be shaken. "Otherwise, strict accountability, for example, privately relax the restriction limit policies, not only to interviews and even penalize the officials,apartment in shanghai but also increase the protection of housing construction indicators, reducing the index of commodity housing land grant; Bank not strictly implement the credit policy, economic heavy fines or even halt the mortgage business.
In other words, to make the introduction of the deregulation order "to test public opinion of local government and relevant agencies to pay the price, rather than general playing public policies like child's play. In a sense, only a serious public policy, market regulation be possible to achieve the purpose.
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12
nedjelja
veljača
2012
Shanghai royal shrink more than half the price
Sales slowed, reduce give land, the mainland enterprises into the room "DongXian" season. However, hong kong-invested room enterprises have seized the opportunity to copy the land market frequent mainland, just like a pair of "DongMang"
apartment in shanghai
scene.
In the first half of 2011, Kowloon warehouse become the mainland to take the most active Hong Kong enterprises. In the previous three months, Kowloon warehouse were in suzhou, changsha, hangzhou scored much of land, the total investment of 10 billion yuan. The second half of 2011, li ka-shing, a subsidiary of the Yangtze river industrial [introduction newest dynamic], hutchison whampoa take great Kowloon warehouse, land in the mainland market "gold rush,". Beginning June, long and the early in tianjin, changchun, dalian, foshan and land to harvest.
"Always believe: when all people rush in to come out, when all don't play to rush in." This sentence is the li ka shing experience many investors as jinke [introduction newest dynamic] jade law. And the sentence on the most thorough explanation arrive, or the super rich. However, li ka-shing for industry impression, is not only the land copy, and alleged "store".
Earlier on media reported, long and department in Shanghai, wuhan, store up to behavior, and value-added share takings. However, hutchison whampoa the end of 2010 in Shanghai a royal, has been to the area in 2011 the embarrassment of decline plate value. Always with sound operation of the li ka shing is, in the housing market into the second half, still can continue in the mainland, according to make money on?
Spend billions of inverse city to rob
Hutchison whampoa the li ka shing is to the main platform of the mainland property market, this "grab" the responsibility of, still have to go someplace by hutchison whampoa.
June 3, 2011, hutchison whampoa signing XiaoLiuZhuang area north of tianjin project, it is reported, this project vote by hebei district city company and hutchison whampoa properties tianjin cooperation, the expected investment more than 6 billion yuan. With the project in only 20 days later, hutchison whampoa changchun company and the reserve price with 464 million yuan with changchun a land area of 158900 square meters of residential ShangFu land, hutchison whampoa first into the changchun high-tech zone.
Rest the four or five months, li ka-shing shot again. In November 2011, in more land under the condition of the shoot frequently flow, hutchison whampoa decisive competition to a plot out in foshan, the total investment of more than 1.5 billion yuan. Times weekly the reporter understands, and yellow for total cost of this plot for 896 million yuan, after this plot will develop it into for residential and commercial property. This is the guangzhou, shenzhen, zhuhai, dongguan, jiangmen after, li ka-shing again in south China into a son.
After a month, hutchison whampoa and appeared dalian land market, and to the li ka shing another real estate platform the Yangtze river industrial with 1.9 billion yuan had a successful xigang district dalian 143000 square meters of the land for commercial use. According to introducing, this land acquisition is the subject of action for the dalian darien project company real estate development Co., LTD, the Yangtze river industrial and hutchison whampoa their own the company indirectly 50% of the rights and interests.
In addition to the outside the city, in the current round of the mainland property market in land control, li ka-shing also in the end of 2010, in chongqing, Shanghai, nanjing high price to rob. In November 2010, after three years, li ka-shing in chongqing again shots, hutchison whampoa through the bidding mode, with 1.31 billion yuan price had success in a new city of chongqing and housing land. And then, before and after the li ka shing in Shanghai, nanjing winners in the land. In 2010 the early December, hutchison whampoa subordinate industry trade investment Co., LTD. With total price 1.62 billion yuan picked Shanghai qingpu area zhao lane plate 17 plot, floor price for 21436 yuan/square metre, premium rate was 191.5%, and refresh the zhao lane plate unit price "king" record. Christmas Eve, hutchison whampoa with 3.18 billion yuan price scored nanjing hexi plate G53 plot, a 17.7% premium, floor price for 8548 yuan/square metre.
A quick computation, since the end of 2010, li ka-shing's long and has been in the mainland is $ten billion dollars give land, its footprint in the mainland spread all over the country. In 2003, hutchison whampoa in mainland China only the layout of Shanghai, shenzhen, chongqing, guangzhou and Beijing seven cities. 2004, 2005 two years, hutchison whampoa "inverse city and on", they have in xi 'an, chengdu, changsha, changchun, wuhan, tianjin, chongqing and other to invest 40 billion yuan a huge amount of money, the circle more than 3 million square meters of land, basic completed its level of cities and major second city strategic layout. According to the August 2011 hutchison whampoa released center daily news, in the land that the current accounts for land reserve can develop into a total of 9.8 million square meters with residential primarily property, of which 97% in mainland China, 2% in Britain and 1% in Singapore and Hong Kong, China. This land reserve including distributed in 23 cities of 48 project, expected in several years development stage.
Capital chain advantage
The mainland property market with very cold, why the li ka shing is often turn out?
"Domestic economic sustainable development is to attract Hong Kong room in the main reason for the mainland enterprises." The real estate industry research institute HanChangJi jammed consultant to The Times weekly newspaper reporter analysis, combined with the current domestic credit reduced, a lot of medium and small real estate enterprise as the money offshore step up pressure, while Hong Kong room enterprises enter the mainland to develop the market is more time, so if a large amount of Hong Kong room in the mainland enterprises, is the flow of capital and investment will double influence results.
In fact, not only hutchison whampoa, Kowloon storehouse, nordstrom, kerry properties, such as chow taifook enterprises in the mainland and Hong Kong have "horse race circle". According to not complete count, 2011 port in the mainland market investment enterprises is more than 20 billion. Many of these "gold" by the reserve price gain favorite plot or project. But there are exceptions, in September 2011, after 83 rounds of 5 real estate into second with 3.497 billion yuan of kunming won two of the commercial plots.
Hong Kong enterprises to take, including hutchison whampoa, there are some capital chain advantage. According to not complete count, by the end of 2010, Hong Kong listed in Hong Kong and main operation of real estate enterprise, average asset ratio is only 26.71%. But the house property of the four major Kings of Hong Kong (li ka-shing, lee, the renowned cheng yu tung, GuoBingXiang) company capital liabilities scale to all only about 20%, up to 30 June 2011, the net assets of the li ka shing hutchison whampoa ratio of 21.9%.
In contrast, the domestic enterprises listed room easily to asset ratio of more than 70%. And public data show that by the end of the first half of 2011, the mainland of the real estate enterprises listed average asset ratio is 71.28%, and nearly 10 years of record high, at the same time, the listed room enterprises total liabilities has more than 1 trillion yuan.
In 2012, the beginning of spring, land market so empty. According to Beijing central plains real estate data, 1 month, key city land flow standard rate is 44%. However, li ka-shing seems to be for the further copy the preparation. According to Hong Kong apartment in shanghai media latest news, and yellow in the foundation of the 5-year and 10-year dollars debt, because warm response, already will issue size each increased to 500 million us dollars, that is $1 billion (about 7.8 billion hk dollar). This will for 2012 years in the mainland market rob hutchison whampoa, note "feed".
The other side compartments, li ka-shing another business center of gravity in Hong Kong property platform the Yangtze river industrial [introduction newest dynamic], but also to the mainland market assault. Recently, the executive director of the Yangtze river industrial ZhaoGuoXiong media, said the mainland in 2012 with a flood of acquisition opportunities, cheung kong (holdings) will be special attention to the mainland city integrated projects.
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Intermediary suspected is the mastermind
"I rented the school district room would have a monthly rent of 4,000 yuan, the landlord is now the speaker this year to renew rose to 6000 yuan, a ranking it also allows people to live." Chinese New Year festive air of children have not been, Miss Peng on thing of the house lit, how she did not expect to rent but also "jumping" up. Reporters learned from I love my family and other intermediaries, recent rent no significant rise signs Insiders pointed out that the individual listings to increase by a big margin, the composition of compensatory growth,apartment in shanghai but also in part by the intermediary advised up "results.
Ms. Peng's children go to school in the near Xidan second experiment, because the shuttle is not convenient, in March 2010, Ms Pang near the school rented a one bedroom rent is $ 4000 per month, then feel enough of expensive , but for our children every day 20 minutes of sleep sleep, Ms Pang also recognized, her landlord, rent a total of four years, a sign the two-year contract to renew, the landlord is also very willing to leased her. and said that they sign will not rise too much.
A month to renew, three days ago, Ms Pang initiative to call the landlord to discuss the matter of renewal. Because the previous incumbent on children, plus two years of rent does rise, before the talk, Ms Pang has to do the preparation of the rent increases, but she did not expect landlord mouth up 50 percent from 4,000 yuan, directly jump to 6000, but despite her how to bargain, not cut down. Inquire into all aspects of information, Ms Pang learned that in this region, the same grade, the same area of the house, the current monthly rent of 5,000 yuan, should also have favorable long-term tenants like her, but the landlord why this sharp rise ? Peng Ms. moment can not figure out.
Similarly, the past year, many parents rented the room of the school district has a "price" the encounter, and rises more than 1500 yuan to 2000 yuan. Such as two-bedroom rent in the vicinity of National Chiao Tung University High School, Ms. Lee before the Spring Festival monthly rent rose from 3800 yuan to 5500 yuan; rent in the government school primary school near the Cheng, rent landlord rose to 4000 yuan from 5200 yuan ...
Cheng said to reporters, the room of the school district due to "just be", the rents have been rapid gains, but there are also intermediary "to persuade up ingredients, his landlord had told him explicitly renew the lease before, there have been an intermediary chasing her : "your rent is too low, you do not renew, I have a customers 5500 yuan to rent ...
Beijing in the vicinity of an intermediary store manager told reporters: "this situation. Intermediaries sometimes flicker landlord called high-priced, 'scared' to run the old tenants if the tenants to renew, the intermediary will earn money. And if the old tenants of high prices scare away the intermediary again to the landlord to find new customers, to earn an intermediary fees; the other hand, because the advantage of the room of the school district, the majority of tenants will be in this area to find room, there may also to find an intermediary, but also received a commission fee. an intermediary charges a monthly rent, 30 percent off, do not discount this interest is obvious. "
Heard the landlord intermediary "to persuade up", Ms Pang suddenly realized a sense of: "justified" because the process of looking for new listings in her these two days, apartment in shanghai the intermediary and she said, and now because of poor trading market, rent has become a very important source of income by the intermediary stores, they can be exhausted "by all means in order to get new listings."
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