Za razliku od proslogodisnje neuobicajeno zivahne uraganske sezone, ove godine se nista ozbiljno jos nije dogodilo.
Na jucerasnji dan je bilo godinu dana otkad je Katrina prosla preko Floride, a 29-tog ce biti godina dana od naleta na New Orleans.
Prigodno se po TV stanicama prikazuju raznorazni dokumentarci i analize (npr. Spike Lee "When the Levees Broke: A Requiem in Four Acts" i serijali/analize na Discovery i History Channelu).
Kako sad stvari stoje, 'obiljezavanju godisnjice' bi se lako mogao pridruziti i Senor Ernesto (nije Che Guevara!), koji se trenutno nalazi na kracem boravku u Hurricane Alley gdje skuplja snagu za proboj u Meksicki zaljev gdje ga ocekuju vise temperature mora koje ce mu vjerovatno dati dodatnu snagu i pravo da se nazove uraganom (jos uvijek je samo Tropical Storm).
Trenutne prognoze/projekcije su da ce negdje iduceg cetvrtka ujutro biti jacine 3 i da ce se nalaziti u centru Meksickog zaljeva, s velikim izgledima za 'prizemljenje' u podrucjima naftnih platformi i/ili rafinerija.
Tropical Storm Ernesto could reach hurricane status by Monday, churning out winds of 74 mph or higher as it nears western Cuba, the National Hurricane Center predicted.
A five-day forecast has Ernesto crossing western Cuba and entering the Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday, but long-range predictions aren't always reliable because hurricanes can change course quickly.
If Ernesto reaches hurricane strength, it would be the first hurricane so far this season. By this time last year, five hurricanes and 11 named storms had already formed -- and Hurricane Katrina was just days away from devastating New Orleans and the Gulf Coast on August 29.
For a couple days now we have been talking up Ernesto and warning that there was a significant chance that this could be the new big story. After looking at the situation today, I am convinced that things could be very bad indeed. I always try not incite undue worry, but Ernesto could get ugly. Those of you in the Gulf Coast need to re-examine your hurricane plans, especially is you live in the north Gulf from Houston to Tallahassee. A very deep layer of warm water in the northern Gulf could allow for Ernesto to become a very powerful hurricane if it reaches the area.
Naravno, uvijek je moguc i drugaciji put, ovisno o tome na kom ce mjestu Senor Ernesto uci u Meksicki Zaljev i s kojom kategorijom, ali za par dolara visu cijenu nafte pocetkom tjedna mislim da ce biti dovoljno.
A onda ce se vec neki drugi 'HurrIran' naci kao good choice...
Vezano na tekucu problematiku putovanja s kontinenta na kontinent, a povodom najnovijih 'nezamislivih otkrica' antiteroristickih formacija u UK i sirom islamskog svijeta (zacudo pa je opet kao i u slucajevima prije zasluzna ISI, Inter-Service Intelligence Service Pakistan), koje su u najmanju ruku receno ispizdile svih i svakoga tko je trebao putovat tih (a i ovih) dana kao i one koji su trebali primiti te putnike (da podsjetim: moze/ne moze u kabinu laptop, mobitel, kljucevi, 'How to drive 747' prirucnik, izuzetno smrdljive carape, whiskey iz duty free, parfemi, mala djeca bez pelena, etc./precrtaj neprikladno!), interesano je razmisljanje u Guardianu dijelom prevedeno, a dijelom na engleskom (link je na dnu)...
Timing najnovije antiterorističke afere bio je duboko politički, a riječ je o propagandi, a ne uroti, piše Guardian. Nisu pronađeni nikakvi eksplozivi, uhićeni nisu imali karte za bilo kakve letove, a neki ni putovnice. Usto, mnogi od uhićenih već su bili pod nadzorom više od godinu dana, kao i tisuće drugih britanskih muslimana. Od više od tisuću dosad uhićenih po antiterorističkim zakonima u Velikoj Britaniji, samo ih je 12 posto optuženo. Od optuženih, samo je 2 posto osuđenih, a i oni nisu osuđeni zbog terorizma. U Pakistanu se može dobiti bilo kakvo priznanje pa pakistanski navodi o terorističkoj uroti nisu relevantni. Ovo bi se prije moglo nazvati uznemiravanjem nezamislivih razmjera, nego pokušajem masovnog ubojstva nezamislivih razmjera, zaključuju u Guardianu...
We will now never know if any of those arrested would have gone on to make a bomb or buy a plane ticket. Most do not fit the "loner" profile you would expect. As they were all under surveillance, and on airport watch lists, there could have been little danger in letting them proceed closer to maturity: that is what we would have done with the IRA.
In all of this, the one thing of which I am certain is that the timing is deeply political. This is more propaganda than plot. More than 1,000 British Muslims have been arrested under anti-terrorist legislation, but only 12% have been charged. That is harassment on an appalling scale. Of those charged, 80% were acquitted. Most of the few convictions - just over 2% of arrests - are nothing to do with terrorism, but some minor offence the police happened upon while trawling through the lives they have wrecked.
Plainly, Islamist terrorism does exist. But its growth is encouraged by our adherence to neocon foreign policy, by our support for appalling regimes abroad, and by our trampling on the rights of Muslims in the UK. Now David Cameron has joined Blair and Reid in the rush to benefit politically from the fear thus engendered. Be very wary of politicians who seek to benefit from terror.
Be sceptical. Be very, very sceptical.
Biljeska o piscu:
· Craig Murray, who was posted to Uzbekistan from 2002 to 2004, is the author of Murder in Samarkand - A British Ambassador's Controversial Defiance of Tyranny in the War on Terror
Jedan od komentara za one koji zele znati malo vise!
Anything that has as its source the Pakistani Inter-Service Intelligence Service (ISI)is extremely suspect. It has the closest relations with the Bush administration and can be expected to cooperate with any requests. During the Democratic Party Convention in the USA, July 2004, the Bush administration made a tremendous brouhaha about an Al Qaida plot to bomb several banks which had ISI as its source. The report then was that someone in the Bush administration had sested to ISI the dates when it would be helpful if it arrested some important Al Qaida leaders. Nothing ever came of it. Now, ISI seems to be pointing at a different Al Qaeda bomb plot leader every. First, the chief plotter was supposed to be one Abu Hamsa Rabi, supposedly senior head of international operations. Small problem, the man was killed last November or December. Yesterday, it was one al-Libbi, as The Guardian reported. Problem is that the gent has been in U.S. custody since around December 2001. Today it is Zawahiri himself. Plus, the alleged prime suspect, Rauf, was demoted to a "go-between," and the U.K. has not asked for his extradition.