A New Optimism instead of the New Deal

The Light at the End of the Tunnel

On December 9, 2011 Croatian president Ivo Josipovic and former Prime Minister Jadranka Kosor, signed the Accession Treaty with the European Union. This act marked the end of a long Croatian journey towards the European Union. Croatian negotiation process was remarkably more requiring that the Eastern European ones, with new criteria emerging on the way in the negotiations that initiated back in October 2005. The European Union first experienced the enlargement fatigue and then accepted two latest Member States that proved not to solve all accession conditions properly. Croatian citizens will take part in a referendum on the EU accession on January 22, 2012. It is expected that the majority of them will vote in favour of the membership. The informative campaign under slogan “We do belong here” put forward by the Government, which started in May 2011, has been vague and unconvincing. The campaign named “It’s worth considering it” financed by the EC Delegation in Croatia that started in December has attracted much more public attention and credibility.

What is following the Croatian referendum is a set of ratifications in the Member States and it is anticipated that Croatia is becoming the 28th Member State in July 2013. The Eastern euphoria over the return to Europe that was felt in May 2004 is definitely lacking this time. Both on the side of the EU, which is stuck in the euro crisis, and in Croatia, whose citizens perceive the long and demanding accession path as unjust and well aware that the membership brings negative consequences on their everyday lives too. However, the Croatian accession serves as the only palpable motivator to the other Western Balkans (potential) candidates to keep on pursuing their necessary reforms, whose European destiny will not hopefully kept far-off for too long.

Give Hope a Chance

Just some days prior to the accession treaty signing, on December 4, 2011 the country voted in the parliamentary elections and gave support to a leftist-liberal party coalition led by the Social Democratic Party (SDP). The accession treaty signing was one of the last acts done in a prime minister role of Jandranka Kosor. The party she is leading, the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ), has been ruling the country in the previous two consecutive mandates. Although Jadranka Kosor, upon assuming Prime Minister position in June 2009, is held responsible for instigating anti-corruption climate in the country, a little credibility and legitimacy is left for the HDZ. This political option, that has been dominating Croatian political scene since 1990, needs a reform and a new leadership. Firstly, the former party's former leader, Ivo Sanader, suddenly resigned and left politics, is being faced with charges for several corruptive acts and prior to being released from custody in late December 2011 spent more than a year in Austrian and Croatian prisons. Secondly, the party still calls for democratisation of its internal electoral procedures. The subsequent party president elections will prove if the HDZ is willing to modernize and allow for a true participation of its membership in decision making. Finally, the country is in a deep economic stalemate, with rising costs of life as well as the unemployment rate (at the time being of 17,4 %), with high foreign debt (approximately 60 billion), and rare foreign investments.

The recent change of government gives a reason for hope. And Croatian citizens indeed need it. Spring Eurobarometer opinion poll reveals that 96% of respondents sees economic situation in the country as a catastrophic, whereas approximately half of them sees the personal financial situation as a very bad one. When it comes to forecast for the proximate year, optimism is shared by merely 20% of respondents. The remaining number of them sees the financial and professional situation as non changing or derogating. When asked about the prospect of ending the economic crisis, Croats are in comparison more sceptical and cautious then the EU citizens (52% compared to 47%). 91% of the Croatian respondents hold the government accountable for improper management of the economic crisis. When asked about the perception of the EU and about their feelings towards it, the EU citizens appear much more Europhilic than Croats. For 40% of them the EU conjure up a very positive feeling, whereas for merely 31% of Croats invokes positive emotions.

New Prime minister Zoran Milanovic offers a glimpse of hope that a change in the Croato-pesimistic frame of mind might be reworked. First of all, he announced in its inaugural speech that no drastic changes will be implemented by his government that will have impact on the economic position of citizens. Secondly, in his recent interview he keeps saying that the government he assembled has a mission to make Croatia a better place and that his ministers and politically appointed staff are not chosen on political grounds but because of their competences. Indeed, a recent public opinion poll indicates the positive direction since the late December result show that 33% of the citizens believe that the country is heading in the good direction. Prior to the December parliamentary elections only 10% of respondents shared that impression. When asked in another interview if his government is preparing the New Deal for Croatia, Milanovic responded the times have changed so much in comparison to the economy of 1930s and that Croatian economy is nowadays in incomparably better situation than American of that time, but that his team is planning to instigate a new optimism in the Croatian society, that will result in better economic climate.

The new Croatian government has however not time to waste in order to tackle numerous societal, economic and organizational challenges. However, if it fails to address them, lack of optimism is the last thing to worry about.

Publiswhed at the Stasbourger website.