3.5.2008. +14.52 units
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RYMAN PREMIER Wimbledon to win the play-off's (2.88 @StanJames) 4 units (29/04/2008) Wimbledon are dying for promotion and, having their strange history in mind, I'd love to see them in Conference South finally, but this is far from being some kind of a wishful bet. Hornchurch had a very nice season (just like Telford in Conf North, they just got promoted and now they're fighting for a place in another higher non-league well done, Urchins), but Wimbledon are huge favorites for a place in the final match and all things considered, Staines should be the other finalist. Speaking of Staines, they have a good team and the league's best scorer, but Wimbledon would be favorites against them too. Okay, maybe I'm taking a lot of things for granted here, but I'm pretty confident that Wimbledon will beat Hornchurch (even if it takes extra-time to do it) and Staines should be better than Ramsgate. If Staines somehow manage to lose to Ramsgate, that's even better for this bet. First of all, it was 1:0 for Wimbledon at their place in November and that result apparently flattered the visitors from Hornchurch (Wimbledon even had an outfield player on goal for the whole second half) that's good to know. This Saturday, these two teams played at Hornchurch and the match ended 1:1, but both teams decided to rest a bunch of players. Wimbledon's record signing Jon Main started his first match after being out injured for a couple of months though and he scored from the first half-chance he had. But it's not just Main that Hornchurch should be afraid of there's also talented winger Shroot who scored a lot of goals lately, experienced Marcus Gayle who played for Wimbledon back when they weren't 'AFC', very good goalkeeper Little who could be a very important factor here... Wimbledon should have more than enough for Hornchurch who did great in their first season in Ryman Premier, but I'm afraid their journey is now over. They managed to beat Chelmsford (Ryman Premier champions) twice this season, that's great, but they failed to beat any other promotion candidates and ex-play-off-candidates. They'll probably be up there next season too, but I can't see them doing much away at Wimbledon, infront of three or four thousand Wimbledon fans. I already wrote that I predict a Staines Wimbledon final match. Well, you should also know that Wimbledon trashed Staines 5:2 away at Staines back in December and I'm sure they know all about Nwokeji (Staines' and league's best scorer) by now if they keep an eye on him, they'll do half of the job. Wimbledon have been great away from home lately and, who knows, maybe they'll even have a little push from the referees they have a lot of fans, most of Conf South teams can only dream about that kind of a support (Staines have about ten times less people on their home matches than Wimbledon). They belong to be higher in the non-league pyramid last season they failed to promote, this season they could finally do it. And even if they don't, these odds are pure value my odds would be 2.40 max and although Staines will play at home in the final match if they beat Ramsgate, Wimbledon should be the biggest favorites for promotion of all teams involved, not Staines. (2.88 also at BetDirect and Better, 2.75 at Skybet, 2.62 at Bet365 and Coral...) semi-final: Wimbledon - Hornchurch 3:1 FT / final: Staines - Wimbledon 1:2 FT UNIBOND PREMIER Gateshead to win the play-off's (2.75 @Skybet) 4 units (29/04/2008) Gateshead had an incredible final push in Unibond Premier, winning nine times and sharing points once in the last ten matches. Their goal-difference in the last four matches is 13:0 and Buxton were so afraid of them after they lost 4:0 to Gateshead infront of their own fans that they raised the white flag this Saturday away at Gateshead and lost 0:5. Buxton decided that Witton are the worse team than Gateshead at the moment and I think they're right. Witton stumbled a couple of times too many in this final part of the season and I wouldn't be surprised if they don't make it and if they don't make it, Gateshead are the only realistic candidates for promotion. Eastwood aren't the team that could stop Gateshead's incredible run IMO they couldn't even beat Buxton at home a month ago and they're not very good away from home (7-5-8, 21:21, as much as six teams have a better away record this season). It was 1:1 at Gateshead two months ago though, but Gateshead won 3:1 at Eastwood, Gateshead are a much better team now than two months ago and Eastwood players could feel a bit tired at the end of a very busy month (a lot of league fixtures and two Cup matches) this will be their 8th match in 25 days, Gateshead played 7 as they didn't have a midweek match last week, another fine fact. Witton were the league leaders untill the very end, but that 0:3 home defeat to Fleetwood a month ago marked the beginning of their fall. Last Saturday they couldn't beat North Ferriby and this last 0:3 defeat to Worksop was a shock they won't forget that easily. They still have a better squad than Buxton and should win their semi-final match comfortably (and then we could see a very even final match Witton lost only two home matches, Gateshead lost only three away matches, Witton are a great team, probably the best in the league, when they're in the middle of a good run, but currently they're playing awful while Gateshead on the other hand have hit a truly amazing form but with @2.75 bet in our virtual pockets), but maybe they don't manage to recover, maybe Buxton really can beat them. If they do, these odds will look absolutely huge, but they're too big already. (2.50 at StanJames, Coral, BetDirect and Better, 2.25 at Bet365...) semi-final: Gateshead - Eastwood 4:0 FT / final: Gateshead - Buxton 2:0 FT |
