srijeda, 21.02.2007.
NETS MAY PULL THE TRIGGER: Kidd u Lakersima, Carter u Orlandu??
NAJBOLJE NOĆAŠNJE AKCIJE (21/02/07)..
Fantasy Newsletter: 21/02/07
Still hunkering for more tasty nuggets and fantasy tidbits that give you some insight into potential post-All Star Break breakouts for 2006? Of course you are. What if I told you that there were still some current chunks of coal that could help boost you to a fantasy championship run? Is that something you might be interested in? The answer to all of these questions is of course, “yes”, because as we all know, being able to correctly predict—ahead of time—when a player’s stats are about to take a huge jump is what wins rings.
First let me say thank you to the fake Bob Ryan of Entourage fame for providing the ultimate column intro—it’s amazing how it works for almost any situation. Second, let me acknowledge that Brian McKittish has already written a column about “Second Half Sleepers” – but let’s get serious here…there are a lot of guys that can bust out after the All Star Break and help fantasy teams win rings. These particular players tend to run the gamete of the talent level, including disappointing superstars to rookies finally receiving playing time and all the way down to out-of-nowhere performances that can boost players’ value.
What causes these increases in production? Tons of factors really but we’re going to focus today specifically on motivation as a key—whether it be the motivation of the front office, the coach or the player himself. For instance, it’s well documented that players who are snubbed for All Star selections tend to have monster second halves as a method of retribution; others still receive a huge boost in playing time when coaches and/or the front office folks feel motivated to give them playing time in an effort to check out their investment.
Snub Me, Shame You…
Let’s briefly breeze through the already big names that will likely be motivated by All Star Weekend factors, with Carmelo Anthony leading the list. Yes, I know he is the league’s leading scorer but if you get the chance to go after him in any possible trade, do so immediately. Even if David Stern adds him to the list of Western Conference players, expect him to have a monster second half and easily capture the league’s scoring title while upping those board and assist numbers. Ray Allen is another guy that seems incredulously stripped of mid-season honors—no doubt Tony Parker is having a nice season, but better than the former Husky? And if injury is an excuse, look no further than Tracy McGrady’s inclusion for an answer. “He Got Game” has already been pouring it on lately and with more passing responsibilities falling his way plus Rashard Lewis’ presence taking away double teams, expect a very large second half.
MICHAEL JORDAN 1990: 44PTS vs. DAVID ROBINSON & SPURS
I’m Just An Ol’ Chunk of Coal
Who are the most valuable post-break additions to fantasy teams? Those would be the ones that you get either cheap or “OTH” (On the House), a.k.a. free. And you land these guys by being able to recognize when either their performance or playing time is about to take a significant spike. Two notorious reasons for such a spike are either injury or a team’s playoff chances fading quickly. Now, we can’t exactly predict the former, but we can certainly take calculated gambles, like with Tyrus Thomas, who may be in line for some additional PT in Chi-town. With Andres Nocioni possibly out for a lengthy time and Ben Wallace having already shown his age through performance and minor injuries, it’s entirely possible that GM John Paxson can move past Thomas’ poor choice of words and work with Scott Skiles to get the freakishly athletic talent some more playing time.
Someone that seems like much less of a calculated gamble—with the bonus of the freaky talent and funky production—is Rajon Rondo who has been heating up as we approach “mid-season”. Rondo really looks like he could be a triple-double threat every single night he’s on the floor and with the Celtics having lost nearly 15 straight games and counting, Doc Rivers ain’t exactly gonna be afraid to give the rookie some running room, even when Paul Pierce returns. Rondo has recently seen his minutes get a lot closer to 40 a game while averaging almost 16 points and nine assists over the last week while dropping his turnover per game numbers under two - all clear signs of some maturation.
Want another safe bet? How about the oft-neglected Smush Parker (owned in 80 percent of NBA.com leagues but started in much less than half that many)? Parker makes for an ideal “toss-in” (wink-wink) for a trade right now and over the last two weeks has been averaging over 14 points with a three and a half per game and over three steals a game. Both literally and figuratively a thievery if you can go out and nab him for cheap, as his second half this year should look a lot more like his first half from 2005-06.
The Hawks have been playing much better recently but the fact of the matter is they will not be making the playoffs—another fact is that they are very much committed to developing Marvin Williams even though they’re flat out stacked at the swingman “position”. The “Joshes” (Childress and Smith) are the guys you recognize but expect Marvelous Marvin to get some more PT as the second half wears on. His stats haven’t hit a huge spike yet but I expect them to climb as he sees more playing time in the ATL, and he’s only owned in slightly over half of all NBA.com leagues as of right now.
NAKON JEZIČNIH LEKCIJA KOBEU, V-RAD JE POSTAVIO ULTIMATUM..
Likewise, the Trailblazers are within striking distance but most likely won’t be seeing the postseason, and a guy that’s a nice deep flier to take might be Sergio Rodriguez. He recently sprained his ankle and won’t be back until after the break, but before he got hurt he was averaging over six points and four dimes a game in under 16 minutes. Not that we can fairly extrapolate those numbers over 40 minutes or anything, but once the Blazers run out of playoff hope and Jarrett Jack starts running out of gas (these things will happen), Sergio should see enough run to make him fantasy relevant.
Will Brunson
www.nba.com
