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srijeda, 30.03.2011.

Manolo Blanhnik shoes and hardly forgotten

Earthquake tsunami on Japan economic impact of pessimism seems to occupy a leading position. The earthquake was a disaster,Manolo Blanhnik shoes and hardly forgotten that impact on the economy. However, the effects of which cannot be the financial crisis of 2008 par.


Our 2011 Japan real GDP growth is expected to cut 0.4% per cent, but will be in 2012 from 2.2% up cent real GDP growth expected. Earthquakes will lead to real GDP growth slowed sharply in first half of 2011; due to more people to tighten the money bags, consumer spending will be cut. However,CHANEL handbag we expect that the recovery in exports and production faster, reconstruction needs supporting domestic economic recovery will begin in 2011 quarter have become more significant.


Manufacturing facilities damaged in the earthquake tsunami, caused decline in yields in the short term but the medium and long term,
Christian Louboutin Sandals reconstruction efforts may expand domestic demand. To estimate the short-and medium-and long-term effects of, the key is to determine how much of the loss of capital,discount Christian Louboutin Ankle Boots including private sector capital stock of the company, housing stock and public sector capital stock. Now be difficult to determine exactly how much of the loss of the stock of capital, however,
discount Christian louboutin Pumps we can experience the great Hanshin-Awaji earthquake for simple calculations. Assumption near the source of Japan three counties in the northeast (Iwate, and gongchengxian, and fukshima) loss ratio of capital stock is 14.7% (and in the great Hanshin-Awaji earthquake,
cheap Christian Louboutin Sandals Hyogo), we estimate that the earthquake caused total losses of about 12.7 trillion yen.


For concerns about earthquake hazards, take turns to issues of power and nuclear power stations,Jimmy Choo consumers might cut spending. Decline in real GDP level will temporarily exceeded our original estimate. But Japan deterioration of the economy does not appear after the collapse of Lehman Brothers. With the loss of capital stock to be reset, appears equivalent to 12.7 trillion yen expected (about 2.6% of nominal GDP) long-term reconstruction needs.


Fiscal 2011 supplemental budget will provide the affected reconstruction of 6 trillion yen in additional expenditure,Jimmy Choo Sandals almost after the great Hanshin-Awaji earthquake reconstruction spending twice times. 2 trillion yen expected in 2011, three or four quarter expenditure. However, the Government reconstruction expenditures required to have a clear positive effect on the economy over time. After the great Hanshin-Awaji earthquake, 1995 first quarter of the year the Government purchasing and dispensing emergency supplies goods spending is increasing rapidly,cheap Jimmy Choo Pumps while public expenditure on rehabilitation and reconstruction of roads and bridges are to have a significant effect on the economy after six months. We believe that the significant increase in public spending in 2011 quarter.
Rapid response is the key


The initial reaction is faster than the Government measures after the Kobe earthquake. Within three days,cheap Jimmy Choo Sandals the Government defines the earthquake as extremely serious disaster, and decided to spend in fiscal year 2010 budget's emergency reserve, subsequently approved the expenditure of 30.2 billion yen, provision of Iwate, Miyagi and fukshima areas of drinking water, clothing, medical supplies and commodities.


After the earthquake, Japan's Central Bank has been enhanced on the handling of the crisis. 15 trillion yen funds March 14 central banks to the market. The same day,
Manolo Blahnik the Central Bank surprised markets unexpectedly decided to increase the asset purchase programme 5 trillion yen. And published in October 2010, compared to the initial assigned amount, Japan's Central Bank on the rise in risk assets before buying a little more than we expected. If stock prices continued to decline and the yen caused financial markets hit a new low,
Manolo Blahnik sandals Japan's Central Bank may now further monetary easing measures, such as increasing buy Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF).


The Government will implement further fiscal measures and legislation,cheap Manolo Blahnik Pumps fiscal measures will be implemented earlier than timing after the Kobe earthquake. Financial measures are available to the currently ruling party: (1) use of the fiscal year 2011 budget's emergency reserve (1.16 trillion yen) as a disaster recovery spending (fiscal year 2011 budget will be automatically through March 31), and (2) preparing fiscal 2011 supplemental budget. Treasury Nagano Tian Jiayan said recovery expenditures will be larger than the Kobe earthquake input level.


Although the fiscal year 2011 budget may automatically through March 31, but budget-related legislation (deficit financing bonds special laws) through hopeless. In order to avoid loss of post-disaster recovery support cases,cheap Manolo Blahnik sandals we see the need for routine Parliament before the end of the supplementary budget on June 22 and special motion of deficit financing bonds. 2011 special special motion of deficit financing bonds in the fiscal year will be plans to issue such Japan government bond financing 38.2 trillion yen. Special motion of deficit bonds are important financial security to ensure that post-disaster reconstruction.


Earthquake dramatically changed the political situation, political dispute may temporarily be set aside. In addition,Yves Saint Laurent Sandals we believe that any important political events will not occur for some time to come, including held cabinet reorganization, dissolution of the Parliament or elected by universal suffrage. Key is, if the result of the political battles Government reacted slowly to the Kobe earthquake, Japan economy will take a long time to recover from the impact of the earthquake.


Influence on China limited


We estimate that the earthquake on Japan economic impacts are mainly concentrated in the second quarter, and as Japan start of reconstruction, medium-and long-term economic effects of biased positive. Therefore,cheap Yves Saint Laurent Boots we judge Japan limited negative effects of earthquakes on the Chinese economy, while Japan rebuilt may bring new opportunities to China. Based on current information, on China's influence has three main areas:


--China on Japan's exports could be hit in the short term. Kouzhan some 8% of the total Chinese exports on sunrise. In addition, because Japan exports decline in productivity, Japan earthquake may reduce Japan product supply to China. The worst affected in three counties (Iwate,
cheap Yves Saint Laurent Pumps and gongchengxian, and fukshima) manufacturing shipments accounted for Japan National 3.6% of the total value (by fiscal year 2008 data estimation). But as including Nagano, Ibaraki and new County, this proportion reaches 10.8%. Many electronics companies are concentrated in the most severely affected in three counties,
cheap Yves Saint Laurent Sandals and Ibaraki Prefecture has some large steel mills. So in the near future Japan exports to China could be affected, especially electrical machinery and machinery industry. Last year Japan imports totalled US $ 176.8 billion (12.7% per cent of total imports), of which about half is electrical machinery, and mechanical products,
cheap Balenciaga handbags suggest in respect of capital goods, high-tech materials and parts to Japan import dependence is high. View Japan electric power shortage to persist for some time, uncertainties and the nuclear power plant security, electrical machinery and other high-end mechanical product supply shortages may last longer. But with the reconstruction, Japan on various reconstruction material needs, including food, is expected to promote the growth of Chinese exports to Japan.


--Japan manufacturers in seismic damage and affected by the power supply appears in production to a standstill, may bring to global manufacturing production chain,cheap Chanel handbags including China fallout. In the globalization of the production chain, Japan provided some high value-added parts, and thus affect the running of the entire production chain. If Japan's production cannot be recovered in a long time, the potential impact may be expanded. But for now the information, because enterprises have 2-3 stock, while Japan comparative international manufacturers, most manufacturers in Japan also has plants outside,fashion bags so Japan limited short-term effects of insufficient capacity, and long-term uncertainties.--Concerns about the safety of nuclear power plants and power shortages are likely to lead to other non-nuclear energy (such as thermal power) and the rise in food prices, or will further pressure on already high inflation in China.Awards from the major to the major designer men flare jeansfashion week show, Pearl has always been one of the regulars, can be said that thousands of pet in one set. But to wear the pearls, wearing their own style, like Audrey Hepburn, getting the pearls as part of its own, but also to Chanel has always been the maverick model, which naturally also in the philosophy of her jewelry, especially when she was wearing a Russian aristocratic men skinny jeanslover gift pearl Pavlovich, appears in the "Bazzar" magazine, is being promoted as "a The most important of today's expensive minimalist style. " However, Chanel and pearls the most talked about "relationship" or when she changed the definition of women wearing jewelry ideas and the value of the way, has always been the "traditional" heart full of subversive Chanel, with interesting and imaginative style, somens straight leg jeans that the original stone only emphasizes the noble values of the situation into a fashionable pursuit, so whether it is day or dinner wear wide pants suits to fit, Chanel did not forget to true religion bootcut jeans do with the pearl, and has stressed the need to "use smart way to wear "to show the value of her abandoned" into group "format, with a mix of black and one white, to let people see women flare jeans the combination of superb skill to show her black and white philosophy. Want to choose a suitable own pearl jewelry, there must be know ourselves, not all beautiful for beautiful you are, know women skirts & shorts what body of defects in order to better make jewelry to make up for it. For example full of people, you can consider selecting a bunch of slender, bright pearl pendants, jewelry Colorful such charming, easy to attract people's attention, your body is not so people pay attention. The lean people, the principle of choice is a light pearl jewelry decorated on both sides of the central and glory then you look thin, thin, slender neck would not be so obvious. In short, Yangchangbuduan main objective is to choose the jewelry, of course, there is no natural beauty Pizi solution. With a choice in clothing, smooth and pearls are often co-produced a variety of evening dress, but there are some exceptions, this is precisely the contribution of Ms. Coco Chanel. Today, the length of chain, pearls still popular, in fact, in a long chain of pearl ring with special design, different designs can change according to demand, the most women straight leg jeans easy to mix and match. Single long chain simple and generous, with the little black dress is an absolute party protagonist, but also short two laps around the growth, or with a short necklace, necklace with the other, hit in the chest can be a single chain or double knot knot, knot the level and length of hanging beads mixing ratio can be modified, dropped some more appear more slender, look cute cute, so you sometimes young, sometimes elegant. Of course, if you're wearing a sexy halter, can also counter with a long pearl necklace, and more sexy and moving. Learn how to wear, but also know how to discount men's true religion jeans choose, know what kind of pearl is the best, which is known to have been Zhibi after the. For pearls, the shape, luster and finish is the most important of the three indicators, easy to understand that is bigger and more round, shiny little bumpy the surface is a good pearls, of course, you have to according to their own preferences and choose where pearl color, white, flawless black calm, Beads shine. For the wearing of pearls, pearls after use should also pay attention to maintenance, because the main ingredient is calcium cheap men true religion jeans carbonate, pearl, it is easy to be damaged in harsh environments. While to note, be sure not to let pearls near the main water pearls often to breathe air, can make you more perfect pearls preserved.

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