michigan primary polls

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Well here we are, Michigan primary day. Michigan, a state near and dear to my heart, I used to live there during grad school and was an employee of Bush Cheney 04 in the state. So it is a state I am not unfamiliar with. Michigan, as the whole world knows by now, is in a deep recession, and while the rest of the country may soon be joining it, for now, it really is a one state recession. The economy, housing prices, and gas costs are really serious problems for all sectors in the state due to the collapse of the Big Three and massive gas price michigan primary polls The ripple effect of the car industrys demise cannot be overstated as it impacts almost every business in the state, think steel industry collapse Pittsburgh- 1980s. Want to know why there are so many Steeler fans around the country? They left Pittsburgh in the 80s to find jobs somewhere else. Will we see Lions fans all around michigan primary polls country in 2020? Who knows, but for now the biggest industry growing in the Mitten state is U-Haul going south.

I break the state into several different and distinct regions with their seperate priorities.

1-City of Detroit- Everything you have heard about this city is true, stay away. Heavily Democratic, almost universally so. Ironically, McCain had his biggest wins in Michigan in the city in 2000, but that was crossover Democrats trying to sabotage Bush. Dont look for that this time. McCain will probably carry this region but it will be a slim number of votes for the GOP man.

2-Metro Detroit suburbs- is where the population of the city has fled to since the 1960s. Truly a doughnut city, whereby the largest population actually lives works outside the major urban area. This is where the recent economic woes will really begin to effect votes. two major counties are Oakland and Macomb. Oakland is the traditional GOP stronghold of Michigan, suburban with pockets of affluents and a business minded Macomb is the classic Reagan Democrat county, with voters more middle class, Catholic, and Democratic than Oakland. However, in the reversal we have seen in recent years, upscale suburban Oakland voted FOR John Kerry while middle class Macomb voted FOR George Bush.
Romney, drawing largely in part upon the good will direct towards his father, has been running an Oakland County campaign, i.e. focusing on the concerns of voters, his business experience, his managerial know how, and practical solutions directed at suburban professionals making 75K and up. To be honest, this is tailor made for Romney. This suits him much better than his ludicrous culture warrior campaign of 2007 and Iowa, and voters in Michigan are more open to hearing because of his local connections. I expect Romney to do exceedingly well in Oakland County and metro Detroit overall. If McCain can win Macomb, a more McCain friendly area, at least cut significantly into his margin there he will have a good chance of winning the state. the question for McCain is whether his straight talk about the Michigan economic woes was too much for Michiganders to bear right now.

3- Industrial belt- Stretching from Monroe County in the south to Flint in the north, this area is really bearing the burden of the economy right now. This area will be a battle between McCain and Huckabee. In theory, Huckabee should carry this area, it is perfect for his blend of populism and social conservatism(it was key Perot territory in 1992), however as noted below , as with Huck and the Catholic vote, sometimes theory doesnt work out so well in practice. This area is heavily UAW and Democratic, so whoever is GOP here should likely be GOP because of abortion and guns, another Huckabee strong point. McCain has also done very well with the under 50K demographic and has chance to reconnect with these voters here.

4- Western Michigan- Grand rapids and the Dutch reformed heartland surrounding it. These are a Calvinists Calvinist. Again, social michigan primary polls will be critical here so the conventional wisdom is that Huckabee will do well here. Indeed he will but its important to note the difference Huckabees southern populist michigan primary polls revival conservatism and Western Michigans reserved Reformed Calvinist conservatism. (A fact overlooked in the MSMs account of the race.) This is the same which michigan primary polls that not so noted culture warrior Gerry Ford to the House of Representatives. Look for Huck to win but not like he will in the South.

5- Northern Michigan- This area is and cold, cold, cold. A great deal of forestry and farming go on here and the people tend to be hunters and conservative. McCain ran very well here in 2000 and expect a repeat performance. Huckabee should also compete here as his NRA creds and pro-life position will help.

In 2000 Bush michigan primary polls the GOP voters in this state but lost the primary and he only won the michigan primary polls voters by winning two issues with McCain-Abortion and Tax Cuts. Who in todays primary can win on those two issues? The answer is not obvious, in fact one could plausibly argue McCain would be best on both those today than his michigan primary polls The irony of history.
Also of course, Michigan has the zany crossover voting, independents love McCain and will turnout to vote for him as well some mischief making Democrats (though they wil most likely vote for Romney this time round.) If independents make up 30 percent plus of the elctorate look for McCain to win, if under that Romney will have a real shot.

The zany unpredictable nature of this being said, lets make predictions:

Most importantly- Independents will be just under 30 percent of the GOP electorate
SO

1- Mitt Romney- 31%
2-John McCain- 28%
3-Mike Huckabee-22%
4- Rudy Giuliani- 7%
5- Ron Paul- 5%
6 Fred Thompson-5%

If Independents are plus 30 michigan primary polls of electorate look for McCain to win with around 31-32 percent with Romney at 29 %