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srijeda, 04.01.2012.

5 trillion stimulus to guard against the new energy industry overcapacity

5 trillion stimulus to guard against the new energy industry overcapacity

Industrial development in China's history, "step forward" and "excess capacity" always go hand in hand, will in the next 10 years, the development effort invested 5 trillion yuan of new energy industry has been true. Restructuring of the national economic restructuring, development of low background environment-friendly industry, new energy industry prospects are looking on. However, how to balance "speed" and "quality" between, it has been a problem.

Policy: the emerging energy industry planning has basically taken shape

Economic situation in the first half of the national energy conference, the National Energy Board Planning Division, said Jiang Bing, new energy industry planning has become a mature manuscript, submitted to the State Department is preparing. The plan proposes that, from 2011 to 2020, will increase the total investment of 500 trillion yuan, 1.5 trillion annual output value will increase.

Familiar with the previous "new energy plan" is different from the National Energy Board will be planning the ultimate name as "planning emerging energy industry." Jiang Bing explained that the plan would not only include wind, hydropower and nuclear power, including the upgrade of traditional energy sources.

Planning, not only contains an advanced nuclear power, wind, solar and biomass energy resources in these new development and utilization of traditional energy sources will also be important to upgrade the first change, including clean coal, smart grid, distributed energy, new car energy technology, industrial application of the specific implementation of the path, the scale of development and major policy initiatives. In order to achieve non-fossil energy sources by 2020 target of 15%, the scale of nuclear power should at least reach 75 million kilowatts, and hydropower installed capacity will have reached 380 million kilowatts, of which 330 million planned for conventional hydropower, 050 million plan to build to power plants. The use of other biomass energy should scale more than 2.4 million tons of coal.

River ice, and now has formed a relatively complete and mature planning, preparation is being submitted to the State in accordance with the procedures for approval. According to preliminary estimates, the plan implemented in 2020 will significantly reduce over-reliance on coal demand, then sulfur dioxide emissions can be reduced by about 7.8 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions by the year about 12 million tons. Planning period, the cumulative increase in direct investment of 500 trillion yuan, an annual increase of output value of 1.5 trillion yuan.

Back in September last year, President Hu Jintao at the UN climate change summit proposed 2020 non-fossil energy accounts for a proportion of total energy consumption to 15 percent. In December, Premier Wen Jiabao on climate change conference in Copenhagen announced to the world by 2020, China's carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP decreased 40-45% compared to 2005. Construction of low-carbon society, the development of new energy is the trend, but also a long-term future of China's basic national policy, in order to achieve a solemn commitment to China's foreign, the National Energy Board is organizing the units to carry out "five" energy plan for the work, its Emphasis will focus on the development of the proportion of non-fossil energy and carbon emission reduction targets launched two.

According to preliminary estimates, the planning period the cumulative increase in direct investment of 500 trillion yuan, an annual increase of output value of 1.5 trillion yuan, an increase of 15 million jobs in the community. So the next 10 years the new energy industry will enter a rapid development stage, room to grow quite wide, and is likely to birth a large number of new blue chip, high-growth stocks in the future one of the main areas.

Problem: both the "big step forward" and avoid "excess"

In policy and market the "double-sided optimistic", the new energy industry seems to deviate from the explosive growth of the intended track. Industrial development in China's history, "step forward" and "excess capacity" always go hand in hand, how to balance the relationship between, it has been a problem.

Statistics show that 18 domestic provinces and cities have been put forward to build a new energy base, or as the new energy to the development of pillar industries, this rush to develop not only a waste, it will also affect the orderly development of the entire industry. When the whole world for the layout of the new energy and renewable energy industry around the corner, smug when there is a voice not be ignored: "No rules can not be set blueprints, blind expansion of the momentum must be vigilant."

Now, the rapid development of China's new energy industry, individual industries or even a "blowout" of the momentum. Statistics show that China's PV industry annual growth rate of the past five years nearly 150% growth in wind power is doubled. As of 2008, China is the world's largest producer of solar photovoltaic cells, the fourth wind power country. But this "prosperity" hidden under there: some local governments and enterprises blindly launched a new energy projects, or repeat the construction industry chain, resulting in some of the industry has just started, there had been an imbalance or blindly follow the trend of development of the precursor.

China Investment Advisory Network issued a report, to wind power, for example, as of 2008, China's total installed wind power capacity of 12.2 million kilowatts, and total network capacity compared to 8.94 million kilowatts, which means that nearly 28% of at least Wind power equipment has been built to be idle. This is reminiscent of China in recent years, including steel, cement, coal and other traditional industries and blind expansion of production capacity to adjust the structure of reality.

In fact, a simple high productivity is pretty harmless, but more serious problem is that over the rest of the hidden capacity of some production processes are often not high-tech, simple process duplication and other issues, which means high-speed operation of the machine not only failed to produce more profits, but consumes a lot of production. If a bear new economic growth point of the industry, launched the beginning of the hidden from the low-level redundant construction and overcapacity in the shadows, emerging industry that is set back off the way the great regret.

China's National Energy Board new and renewable energy Shi Lishan, deputy director of the wind power plant in Jiangsu has research pointed out that China's wind power and solar energy and other new production processes developed rapidly in recent years, but still the corresponding grid construction to be improved, from the rational allocation of production and use is still some distance.

In fact, many of the key components of new energy production technologies still rely on imports, and these techniques have been the United States, Germany, Japan and other countries, a few companies a monopoly. For example, the absence of core technologies, domestic enterprises only in the lower reaches of the solar cell, battery components and other aspects of production. In China, the so-called polycrystalline silicon and other new energy industry, but it is still in the low-tech, low-level redundant construction phase, in the downstream industry chain.

Assignment: one-fifth into the automotive industry

Institute of brokerage analysts believe that the huge additional 5 trillion investment in new energy industry is expected to at least 1 trillion will be allocated to the new energy vehicles, and this time in addition to the vehicle, the battery to power the core a very optimistic about the auto parts industry, a segment of industry.

"The battery is new energy automotive industry chain is the most important part of investment value." Hongyuan Securities analyst Wang Jing said. Battery is the core of new energy vehicles, the most critical component, as predicted lithium-ion batteries will soon become a mainstream alternative to nickel-hydrogen batteries power batteries, lithium batteries power the new energy vehicles on the demand-pull focus to become the brightest organizations. Clearly, the lithium-ion battery, motor, electronic control and other electric vehicles, industrial chain related businesses will face even greater opportunities for development.

Zhang Xiaoyu, chairman of Society of Automotive Engineers of China introduced the current China's electric car is the subject of new energy vehicle development, and key technologies, including electric vehicle battery, motor and electronic control of three parts, which is the most central parts of the battery. In these areas are under development in our country, not to the industrial stage. Unfortunately, however, the current core component of our battery positive and battery separator, more than 80% are imported.

He said the battery's high import rate of the core components, to develop new energy vehicles in China has sounded the alarm. China is the world's most resource-rich countries of lithium, the battery power with the development of resources. Happily, our country has begun to attach importance to the development of battery power, especially in the basic and common battery technology investment have increased.

China FAW Technology Center director, said Li Jun, the Chinese government investment in electric vehicles are very large and very seriously. New energy vehicles or electric vehicles can not solve China's pollution problem in the local, even if the electricity is sent to the coal, not low-carbon economy, but after all it is local, it can solve the pollution problem, you can solve the problem of energy transport . But the future is not as great a leap in industrial, automotive industry this also depends on our own level of certainty for the technology.

Interpretation: "5 trillion" and "4000000000000" What is the difference

5 trillion! Is indeed an exciting figure, less than the financial crisis, "2009 economic stimulus package of 4 trillion" even more. Well, this 5 trillion new energy industry planning in the end mean? And 4 trillion industry stimulus plan different?

The industry believes that this "5 trillion," and in 2009, "4000000000000" is quite different. Market analysis, the "5 trillion," focuses on long-term effects of new energy investment, stimulate economic growth in the short-term effect of far less in 2009, "4000000000000", the stock market response is not so strong.

5 trillion from the time of new energy investment planning point of view, across from 2011 to 2020, span the time period of up to 10 years. Equally to the annual capital investment of far less intensity, "4 trillion." Meanwhile, the "5 trillion," a state for the new energy industry and long-term development plan, not the immediate macroeconomic stimulus.

Professor Sun Lijian, vice president of Economics, Fudan University, said that China should seize the new round of global industrial restructuring opportunities, take the initiative to adjust to the new industrial structure, including new energy, low carbon economy, the concept of the industrial environment. In addition, China's foreign trade should be guided, for industrial upgrading. Exports, to encourage high value-added exports.

Point and purpose of policy implementation is different from the 4 trillion in 2009 is the introduction of the international financial crisis, aims to stimulate rapid economic stabilization and recovery, inhibit macro-economic decline. The 5 trillion in new energy investment plan is the economic recovery trend has been set, enter the security macro-economic growth, structural adjustment and development stage, are long-term economic structural adjustment range.

Shanghai this week to report new energy vehicles subsidy program

After a long deliberation, Shanghai is planning to accelerate the pace of commercialization of new energy vehicles. Yesterday, reporter learned that Shanghai has been the development of new energy vehicles, subsidies for implementation of the program, this week reported to the State authorities, such as the successful end of four quarters of the beginning of the third quarter is expected to be granted, and formally executed.

Reporters from the Shanghai office has learned to promote new energy vehicles, Shanghai has many times in conjunction with related businesses, research institutions to discuss, and ultimately determine the private purchase of new energy vehicles subsidy program. And Shenzhen, Changchun difference is highly subsidized, Shanghai added service to protect new energy vehicles, car rental business and financial subsidies battery standards.

To promote new energy vehicles in Shanghai office, said charge to solve the problem of new energy vehicles, Shanghai plans to build 400 during charging stations. Charging stations will be located in residential, public transport depot, and mainly rely on existing national grid distribution of resources.

Reporters learned that Shanghai's support for new energy vehicles will be divided into two aspects, first, to support the Shanghai New energy car battery leasing business development, corporate finance the purchase of new energy-related car battery occurred in loan interest, will be maximum discount of not more than three years of support. Second, the requirement for new energy related businesses and make the appropriate commitment to service vehicles, and those who did not complete the appropriate punishment.

When asked "whether Shanghai will be the introduction of high subsidy policy" to promote new energy vehicles in Shanghai office, said Shanghai will be the proper conduct of local subsidies, but compared with the subsidies, Shanghai also hope to promote the stability of new energy vehicles, sustained, healthy development. Industry is generally expected, the local version of Shanghai between the amount of subsidies may be between Shenzhen and Changchun, the highest amount of subsidy in 40000-60000 yuan between.

Hengdian DMEGC: 873 million yuan to pound heavily in solar market

By the positive news, July 26, Hengdian DMEGC (17.47,0.57,3.37%) (002,056) 18.59 yuan upward in order to limit the opening. The latest announcement, plans to invest 873 million yuan in Hengdian DMEGC 300MW solar park investment and construction of crystalline silicon solar cells and 50MW components of the project. Hengdian DMEGC secretaries WU Xue-ping of the "Securities Times" reporter, said: "Although the market is expected to shrink next year the market, short-term overcapacity, fierce competition in the market to say, but we are optimistic about the prospects for the solar industry, the company began to invest the end of 100MW crystalline silicon solar cell production line, are now relatively well, good benefits. "

Main magnetic materials recovery

Big first-half profit contribution

According to the shopkeeper magnetism July 6 announcement, the company is expected to 2010, a quarterly net profit from January to June 2010, an increase of 100-140%. The estimated results are corrected for the 2010 first half net profit rose 130% -160%. Said, the overall warming of the economic situation this year, plus the company's management advantages, reduce costs, develop new markets, greatly enhance the revenue and net profit.

Deputy General Manager WU Xue-ping said: "The first half is the main business profit made great contributions, but crystalline silicon solar cell production line quick, investment and output have three to four months, as of June 30, the solar cell production line sales revenue of 8800 million, total profit of over 100 million. "

Great Wall Securities Yuexiong Wei introduced shopkeeper domestic ferrite magnetic ferrite materials and leading manufacturers, market share of the first, which the world's first permanent magnet production (in 2008 about 7.4 million tons), Soft production first (in 2008 about 2.6 million tons). 2008's ferrite permanent magnet and soft rice cake products in the country's market share was 16% and 10%. For the shopkeeper main magnetic ferrite magnetic material products, Everbright Securities (16.27, -0.05, -0.31%), Zhao Lei, that from a global perspective, Ferrite Magnets higher degree of homogeneity of the product, with price demand volatility, so the industry is a high flexibility. For style sound shopkeeper magnetism, the business should be to broaden the board of the chess.

Indeed, as Deputy General Manager WU Xue-ping said shopkeeper magnetism, the solar industry should be optimistic about. The Chinese government in the "long-term renewable energy plan" put forward, solar photovoltaic power generation capacity by 2010 will be developed to 450MWp, while the installed capacity of solar power by 2005 only 6.5MWp, which means that the compound growth of China's solar capacity rate will be up to 38%, and "low-carbon economy" is that fossil fuels such as coal, oil use, as much as possible the use of biomass energy, wind energy, solar energy. New solar energy as a renewable energy, is considered to be the 21st century, one of the most important new energy, the development of a larger space.

Solar-oriented

See Europe "face"

Deputy General Manager WU Xue-ping admitted: "We are the risks involved from those we are then, and now the scale is 100MW, 300MW cast into reach 400MW." According to the announcement, 873 million yuan project will be fully operational 300MW per year production of crystalline silicon solar cells film and 50MW solar module production capacity, annual sales revenue of 3.1 billion, 304 million yuan in total profit. Shopkeeper magnetism gradually improved solar photovoltaic industry chain, related to the solar cells into the upstream and downstream products.

Shopkeeper magnetism related parties: "The company put into production lines in March and April, a third production line is expected to put into the third quarter, a total of five production lines." It is understood that the first solar cell production line began production in March, is currently in full load condition, the major suppliers of solar energy manufacturers in Zhejiang province, about 10 million yuan monthly income, as the beginning of their costs and scale advantages, low-margin, mass production after the current industry average net profit margin of 10%.

Great Wall Securities researcher Zhou Tao said: "The solar industry profits and volatile over the past few years, in 2009, also by the financial crisis, a collective quarterly loss, some loss in Q2 because 96% of exports of solar panels, and mainly in Europe, if analysis of domestic solar companies, mainly to see the European market, the euro exchange rate fluctuations, risks to the export-oriented enterprises. "Deutsche Bank chief economist Jun Ma said the central bank Deputy Governor Hu Xiaolian published a report entitled "managed floating exchange rate of three points," the article said that the Chinese government to further promote market-oriented exchange rate formation mechanism reform of the determination and confidence. Because of the impact of exchange rate fluctuations, therefore, domestic production of solar panels will increase the company's future performance creates uncertainty. Can export enterprises, to increase European demand uncertainty.

Donghai Securities forecast electronics industry researcher Yuan Cheng, Hengdian DMEGC 2010, 2011 and 2012 EPS of 0.55 yuan and 0.69 yuan and 0.86 yuan, based on company fundamentals and good future prospects for the development of new energy, give 2012, 30 times PE, target price 25.8 yuan.

However, the Great Wall Securities analyst Yuexiong Wei pointed out that "although, Hengdian DMEGC 873 million yuan investment in building 300MW crystalline silicon solar cells, etc., but with the companies listed in the U.S. Suntech, LDK and other than, or have a gap. "This is just a company secretaries WU Xue-ping said: the company's risk from those who themselves later to intervene.

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