Oil Storms
31.03.2006., petak
Iran Situation for Dummies....
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Q&A: Iran nuclear stand-off The UN Security Council has issued a statement calling on Iran to suspend its nuclear fuel enrichment in accordance with the demands of the UN nuclear watchdog the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) The BBC News website looks at the issues involved. Why has the Security Council made this statement? The IAEA reported Iran to the Security Council because Iran has resumed its work on enriching uranium. The idea is to bring the weight of the Security Council to bear on Iran. Tehran insists it wants only nuclear power - not weapons - but this is not seen as credible by the US and many other Western nations. What does the statement say? The statement does not threaten Iran with sanctions. It says there is "serious concern" over Iran's resumption of work on enrichment and asks the IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei to report back on Iranian actions within 30 days. Why not sanctions at once? Because too many countries on the Security Council oppose them. China and Russia, both veto holders, are against at the moment. China buys a lot of oil and gas from Iran. What is Iran's position? Even before the IAEA vote to report Iran to the Security Council, Tehran had said it was resuming its research, which it insists it has every right to do. Under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), a country has the right to enrich its own fuel for civil nuclear power, under IAEA inspection. After the IAEA vote, Iran said it would also resume uranium enrichment and would end snap inspections by the UN watchdog. Could Iran leave the NPT? Yes. Article X gives a member state the right to declare that "extraordinary events" have "jeopardised the supreme interests of the State." It can then give three months notice to quit. Why is the West so worried? Western powers fear Iran secretly wants to develop either a nuclear bomb or the ability to make one, even if it has not decided to build one right now. So they want Iran to stop any enrichment. The same technology used for producing fuel for nuclear power can be used for producing fuel for a nuclear explosion. The West says that Iran cannot be trusted. An admission by Iran recently that it had received a black-market document on the construction of a nuclear device from the Pakistani scientist AQ Khan has increased those concerns. Iran says it was given the document unasked. What is the background to this? The IAEA reported in 2003 that Iran had hidden a uranium enrichment programme for 18 years, and the current dispute dates back to then. Western members of the IAEA called on Iran to commit itself to stopping all enrichment activities permanently, but it has refused to do so and now says it has abandoned a temporary ban as well. So these countries want Iran reported to the Security Council under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) on the grounds that its past behaviour broke the treaty and it cannot now be trusted. Iran says it is now in compliance with the treaty and that it should be allowed, under inspection, to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes since the treaty allows countries to do this. Iran says it is allowed to enrich. So why the crisis? Iran is allowed to develop a fuel cycle for nuclear power, under IAEA inspection. However because it hid its enrichment programme before, there is an issue of trust for the future. It could in theory learn how to make fuel for nuclear power, then enrich it further for a bomb and leave the NPT. What about Russia's offer to enrich fuel for Iran? The Russians proposed that Iran be allowed to engage in a joint venture to convert uranium ore into the gas which is then spun to produce the enriched uranium needed for nuclear fuel. However, the enrichment would be done in Russia. This would enable Iran to save face, in that it would not be stopped from the conversion procedure which it can do at present, but would also satisfy the West, as Iran would not learn the technology of enrichment. There have been negotiations between Russia and Iran but no detailed agreement so far. Why does Iran want to enrich uranium itself? Enriched uranium (basically the higher-grade material extracted from the original ore) provides fuel for a nuclear power station. Iran says it needs to be able to develop this process itself, under inspection, because it cannot trust outside suppliers. It says they might be subject to American influence. Despite its huge oil and gas reserves, Iran says it wants diversity of energy supply. It points out that its original nuclear programme was started under the Shah. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad emphasised to the UN that his country had an inalienable right to produce nuclear energy like any other signatory to the NPT. Does Iran intend to build nuclear weapons? Iran says its policy is yes to enrichment but no to nuclear weapons. A fatwa against nuclear weapons has been issued by the Supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei. The sceptics argue that Iran has no need to make its own nuclear fuel as this can be provided by others, so they conclude that Iran must be intending one day to make a bomb. One other possibility is that Iran wants to develop the capability but has left a decision on whether actually to build a nuclear weapon for the future. How long would it take Iran to make a bomb? Several years, according to the experts. First, Iran would have to master the enrichment process. This involves engineering thousands of centrifuges which spin a gas made from uranium ore, a difficult operation. Then it has to learn how to trigger a nuclear explosion and make a device small enough to be carried by an aircraft or missile. However, Israel is worried that Iran could learn the enrichment technology sufficiently within a year or so and that achievement, Israel believes, would be the point of no return. What about fears for regional conflict? There are fears of a broader, possibly military, crisis. The US has said publicly that it will not permit Iran to develop nuclear weapons. President Bush has said that he wants diplomacy to solve this, but that nothing is ruled out. There have been press reports that Israel, which bombed an Iraqi reactor in 1981, has begun the planning for a possible raid. But like the US, Israel says that diplomacy is the priority. Do not existing nuclear powers have obligations to get rid of their weapons under the NPT? Article VI commits them to "pursue negotiations in good faith on effective measures relating to cessation of the nuclear arms race at an early date and to nuclear disarmament." The nuclear powers claim they have done this by reducing their warheads but critics say they have not really moved towards nuclear disarmament. Critics also argue that the US and UK have broken the treaty by transferring nuclear weapons from one to another. The US and UK say that this is not covered by the NPT. Does not Israel have a nuclear bomb? Yes. Israel however is not a party to the NPT, so is not obliged to report to it. Neither are India or Pakistan, both of which have developed nuclear weapons. North Korea has left the treaty and has announced that it has acquired a nuclear weapon capacity. Story from BBC NEWS:Published: 2006/03/30 07:46:41 GMT  ....primamo slijedeca pitanja.... |
