Yesterday, "2012 (fourth) dalian · China economic BBS" opening, opinion leaders from all over the country and leader will be in a two day agenda, common in the world and China pulse shanghai house economy trends. The expert points out, China's macroeconomic control is not short of means, must still is down a deposit space, deregulation can release the market vitality, micro place debt and company liabilities alarmed. The real estate industry will be the big prediction shuffle, the proposal with tax adjusting methods P- gradually replace.
The macro economy: local debt and company liabilities alarmed
Yesterday, ZhouJiRen, GongFangXiong, and other famous economist published theme speech respectively. North country development research institute President ZhouJiRen comprehensive analysis of the present situation of the development of China's economy in China, points out that the past form of investment drive economic growth mode must change.
ZhouJiRen pointed out that China on the currency is on the high side, the partial many, may affect the domestic asset prices, influence consumer prices. 2002 to 2010 years of 8 years, China's M2 never to 19 trillion growth to 72.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 53.8 trillion, at the same time in changeless calculation of the GDP increased from 12 trillion to 40 trillion, the broad money supply are much higher than the growth of the entity economy, higher than the growth of the goods and services.
Since 2003, the phenomenon of overheating from a field spread to another field, macroeconomic regulation task very heavy, introduced gradually control the market measures. This is behind the currency against the necessary hair phenomenon.
ZhouJiRen points out, China's macroeconomic control is not short of means, must still is down a deposit space, deregulation can release energy market. But the microscopic place with the company debt liabilities alarmed.
He said, don't think China will face the macro any problems, China's problem is in on microscopic, for whatever region, industry, family or company, and in the past has on the high side of high growth of debt. Such as electric power industry, the railway departments ratio is very high, local platform of debt is great. "The problem now is that the economic situation began to change, debt may this year, next year in to some of our industry, some areas, some companies produce some serious challenges."
ZhouJiRen points out, when the world market downturn, demand contraction, tightening, the slow pace of recovery, to further growth of China's economy brought the problem, of course, also brought opportunity, is China's urbanization relatively insufficient development.
According to introducing, 2010 years of Chinese urbanization rate is 51.27%, is 100 people into the town of 51 people. He suggested that, our country should speed up urbanization, income structure adjustment, to expand the income in the national income share of. At the same time, now the business service industry tax lay particular stress on, adjust to reduce taxes. "Urbanization will improve population structure, let originally in the population of low income into high income increase in population, supply and demand, consumption, create the next economy development speed."
By the debt crisis, global capital market severe turbulence recently, collapsed. The euro zone face a very large selective challenge, if the Greek voters choose to quit the euro zone, not only to Greece, to Europe, to the world economy is great disaster.
Jpmorgan chase asia-pacific director general manager, the investment bank GongFangXiong vice chairman, said the real estate industry to promote the rapid development of urbanization, urbanization process and let very scarce resources has been effectively monetize this is China's land resources, land prices to rise, for China's urbanization brought from the inside of the start of the primitive accumulation of capital of the process.
The new upheavals in the world economy, China's steady growth is facing new challenges. GongFangXiong said, "20%, 30% exports the development of the Chinese economy this road is walk not bottom go to, the transformation is imminent." At present commodity prices resources on China's future development provides a very good opportunity, the course of urbanization is not finished, is still in the primary stage, the course of urbanization still have a long way to go, China's urbanization is the driving force behind economic development, urbanization is main or to develop the service industry and consumption to stimulating domestic demand.
The real estate industry recommendations in order to replace P- tax
Yesterday, from all over the country to real estate and insiders of two of the direction of the real estate industry is discussed.
This year, more and more people think, real estate regulation will continue and deepen. Peking University and the founder of the group WangPu chairman forecast, real estate enterprise will sweep, after forming large-scale shuffle room enterprise, eliminated small businesses. "Whether the regulation is to keep down easily, real estate enterprise or hand shuffle is without a doubt." Commercial real estate wanda do very well. In many years ago wanda is not as good as the China vanke, now come to is hard to say. China vanke now internal debate a lot, such as whether the same as wanda indignation part of property to transformation.
China's commercial real estate union support ratings and secretary general, vice President of thinks, at present the market expectations of uncertainty, real estate regulation policy direction is not clear, there are unknown, motivation, target the effect not beautiful, the market in the long run, deeply worried state. Many problems to be solved, such as "future security room covered after certain level, we also don't market commodity house? We will not be canceled P- and a limit policy? Our future security room to play more important role to cover the proportion of how??" He suggested, real estate short-term policy and regulation long-term policy, and the combination of regulation in the residential property and commercial real estate combination, orderly will funds from residential property orientation in commercial real estate. In August 2010, on the way, and in theory 4.5 trillion insurance money into each year in, practical and not come in. Market regulation and the adjustment of the legal system, combining the future through tax P- means to price out gradually.
Live JianBu, director of the center for policy research QinHong said, according to the national planning to "1025" at the end of the town family live in affordable housing accounted for about 20% of the family. This regulation was started in April 2010 the kingdom of 15, 10, 2011 out of the countries article 8, so far, this round of regulation has been more than two years of time. Since 2005, except for 2008, and by 2010, house prices rise quickly momentum finally got the curb, part of the parts of the city are showing downward housing in shanghai adjustment, be ChaoFang push high housing prices also appeared a callback.
Post je objavljen 28.05.2012. u 09:52 sati.