) as part of a line areas of the city land price to return to the 2008 level, its real estate development enterprise appeal is gradually rise, the second line and three rent house shanghai or four lines of urban land market adjustment is in the probability of significant rise in 2012, a city there to take the opportunity, and the second line and three or four lines of urban land market risk increase. This is a letter to released the room in the year of 2012 Chinese land market operation prediction research report has revealed.
According to the report analysis, a line of the city as a control key, "north expected" four big city real estate market and land market are obviously cooling, real estate development enterprise investment of more cautious, but some of the quality of the land market can still attract many real estate the attention of big brother, show a line for many city still room focusing on the development of enterprises, but already from previously development focus model changes for ch-ina mode. At the same time, 2011 years is a lot of second line and three or four lines of city development opportunities, most of the real estate development enterprise sweeping into the ground level city, blew up this kind of urban land market, pushing up parts of the city land and house prices, further regulation, second line and three or four lines in the city related facilities not perfect regional real estate market and land market bubbles appear, which also contains the risk.
In 2012 the national real estate development enterprise land purchase area will decline for the first time, is expected to drop 10% throughout the year. On one hand, the development enterprise capital insufficiency, commodity house is expected to the depressed market and sadness, the influence of various factors, real estate development enterprise give land enthusiasm will continue to decline; On the other hand, 2012 security room than 2011 new KaiGongLiang dropped significantly, development enterprise purchase affordable housing land will also down sharply. Therefore, in 2012 is expected to land market will continue to trend of cold and cheerless, the real estate development enterprise land purchase area will decline for the first time, is expected to a year will fell about 10%.
Commodity house market continues to adjust depth, many urban house prices start to fall, real estate development enterprise new take to reduce the purchase cost must be considered, and in 2012, real estate development enterprise give land will be more rational and cautious, the government on plots pricing will also be more reasonable. In this situation, is expected to clinch a deal price floor will land throughout the year by about 15%.
Premium rate, 2012 land market will still in the reserve price and low clinchs a deal, and real estate development enterprise in the control enterprise cost and risk as the primary policy background, high premium plot of land market clinch a deal will increasingly reduce, full year 2012 is expected to business land will remain stable premium rate.
The report finds that 2012 will be a cash flow enough room to the enterprises with good opportunity, reasonable price and return to the lower of the overall cost of real estate development enterprise, be helpful for its control risk. Meanwhile, after estimates that, in the broad measure of money supply year-on-year rate of increase has set up a file in the end of 2011 have inflection point, and the land the volatility of the market with the M2 growth cycle in sync with certain positive correlation and M2 ahead of shanghai villa the land market about 4 months or so, expect 2012 land market will tighten policy in some parts of the factors such as common role in turn and then take the opportunity to or will be revealed.
Post je objavljen 30.03.2012. u 12:31 sati.