CONF NORTH
Barrow – Telford 1 (2.25 @StanJames) 5 units
Barrow are flying high and our long-term bet on them to promote @13.00 placed 15 days ago already seems like a winner (the odds are now between @3.25 and @4.00). I suppose you know everything about their current form already, but it's always nice to update the stats in this case – they're unbeaten in the last 17 matches (they were in the relegation zone in November), they have eight wins and a 1:1 draw against champions from Kettering in the last nine, six wins and that same draw against Kettering in the last seven home matches, only one goal conceded (yes, Kettering did that) and ten goals scored in the last five matches or, if you want, only two goals conceded in the last ten matches. Amazing form. They weren't at their best against Tamworth (2:0) and Worcester (1:0) this Saturday, but they've won both matches nevertheless and grabbed that last play-off spot. They'll do their best against Telford and 2.25 is way too much – my odds would be 2.00 max. Of course, let's not forget those two matches between these teams this season – it was 4:0 for Barrow at their place and 2:0 also for Barrow away at Telford (yes, 6:0 in two matches). It's going to be harder now and a low-scoring draw could happen here too, but I have to back Barrow at this price.
Telford aren't unbeatable away from home – Kettering, Stalybridge, Southport and Harrogate were all a lot better away from home this season than Telford. 10-4-7 (25:22) is okay, but it isn't something we should be afraid of. Whatever happens in the play-off's, Telford players, manager and officials can be proud – last season they got promoted from Unibond Premier league and now they're fighting for promotion to Conference National. But, they have been on/off far too often this season – they've lost 1:5 at home to Southport a month ago, then lost the next three matches too (condeded seven goals, scored none) and although they now have three wins in a row (all very good or at least good teams), I can't see them doing much away at Barrow. In the second match they'll definitely be up for it, I doubt that they'll allow themselves another handicap defeat to Barrow infront of their own fans, but infront of Barrow's fans no other team but Barrow can be considered as favorites. Telford scored 8 goals in the last three matches, but conceded in all of these matches. Even Telford's fans agree that it will be very tough away at Barrow and about 3000 Barrow's fans will definitely create a perfect background for the home team. Telford will most probably be without their injured midfielder Fitzpatrick and another midfielder Nwadike still isn't 100% fit – he was replaced in the 58th minute on Saturday.
(2.25 also at BetDirect and Better, 2.20 at Sportingbet and Skybet, 2.15 at Bwin, only 1.90 at Stanleybet...)
FT 2:0
Post je objavljen 30.04.2008. u 23:58 sati.