CONF SOUTH
Fisher – Eastleigh OVER 3.5 (2.88 @Blue Square) 6 units
We have two teams that both love open, attacking football, score (and concede) a lot of goals – Fisher's manager recently said that they want to entertain the fans, have fun playing football that is attractive to watch, they play a quick passing game, without closing the match defensively when the result is good ('...I could tell us to play the most boring stuff ever and grind out results, but that's not the way we do things here...'). That's what this match should be all about. Fisher are a very young squad – the majority of players (and manager) came from two leagues below at the beginning of this season and they've done a great job – I'm impressed, they even have their own sports psychologist. They're currently 4th, they had seven wins in a row before sharing points (1:1) at improved Weston on a cold Monday night (only two days after a glorious 5:1 away win at Basingstoke – we were there of course to bet on them) and if we look at their last 7 matches (in the last 40 days), we can see that they scored 18 and conceded 7 goals). At home they even conceded more than they scored (24 goals in 14 home matches, more than any other play-off candidates) and in the last three home matches (all wins), they scored as much as 9 goals. They have a lot of great scorers, I wrote about that last time (Thomas scored 8, Tomlin scored 5, McCollin 4 and Goulding 3 in the last month, a bit more).
Eastleigh are, on the other hand, very good away from home – in their 13 away matches played, they scored 24 and conceded 18 goals. They scored 7 goals in their last two away matches, both wins (4:3 at Basingstoke, 3:0 at Bognor) and they'll again be without their standard defender Everitt, but also without midfielder Byles (both due to suspension). Last Saturday, we placed a winning bet on their match against Dorchester to produce at least 4 goals and it was 3:1. If Dorchester managed to score (and I think Everitt's absence must have something to do with out) away at Eastleigh, Fisher should score at least two or three at home to Eastleigh. Eastleigh also have a lot of in-form scorers – Scales and Forbes both scored 5 and Marshall scored 3 in the last month. Their on-loan star winger Marshall completed a permanent transfer recently. They're currently 7th and their play-off chances are very much alive. Should be a very good match. And yes, Saturday should be all sunny.
(Stanleybet offer 2.89 for OVER 3.5, 1.71 for OVER 2.5 and gigantic 22.0 for both 6 goals and 7 or more goals... Pinnacle offer 1.93 for OVER 2.75 and 10Bet should have similar odds when they put them up...)
FT 1:4
NORTH/SOUTH DOUBLE: Hyde – Leigh RMI 1 @1.50 & Dorchester – Eastbourne 2 @1.75 (2.625 @Betway) 4 units
Hyde are currently 7th, they had a pretty long bad run recently, but managed to beat very good (especially lately) 11th Boston this Sunday at home and they're probably starting to think of themselves as play-off candidates again. They have every right to because they have some quality players in the team and promotion is their main goal this season. They're still one of the best home teams in Conf North, they have a quality pitch at home, probably the best forward in the league Seddon is still scoring almost in every match and I'm sure they won't lack motivation because if they win and Nuneaton and Stalybridge both lose, they'll be 5th – in the play-off zone again.
After a home 0:3 defeat to Telford this Tuesday, Leigh RMI fans wrote this on their forum: '...Cannot argue with the score. They outplayed us for 90 minutes... I reckon we only need another 7-8 players to out a good team...''. Before that, they also lost at 17th Solihull and they lost all three away matches in January (1:2 at 15th Workington, 1:5 at 11th Boston, 1:6 at 2nd Telford). They're currently 22nd, bottom of the table by far and they're the worst away team in the league (1-2-11, 10:33). We could see a lot of goals here if Hyde players finally have a good day, but they are struggling lately and I think they'd be just as happy with a 1:0 win.
Dorchester are currently second to bottom in Conf South, they have three defeats in a row (1:4 at the very same Eastbourne, 0:3 at home to poor 20th St Albans, 1:3 away at 7th Eastleigh) and they're traditionally awful when playing at home – last season, they had 6-2-12, this season it's 2-3-8 so far. Like I already said, they're a mess at the moment – a bunch of players are going and coming, seven board members left, there has been talks about moving and ground-sharing, they have some problems with injuries... They have one win in their last 17 (!) matches and if you ask me, I think that even bottom of the table Sutton has more chance for staying in the league than poor Dorchester. They played a friendly match this Tuesday at Dorset Premier League (?) outfit Portland United, lost 0:2. Their manager had a plan to look at five or six new players, but in the end he only invited one because of the bad weather and that one limped off the pitch injured. Even if they do bring a new face or two, it's going to be very hard against Eastbourne. Dorchester's fans know it too ('...(new) goalkeeper looked very shaky...', '...we need a leader on the pitch...', '... as soon as they equalised our heads dropped and their was only going to be one winner...', '... we're simply not good enough...', '... after Saturday we have 3 winnable games...'). Not much of an atmosphere there...
Eastbourne are currently 2nd, but they played two matches less and have only six points less than current leaders Lewes. Last Saturday they lost 1:2 at play-off candidates Bishop's Stortford, but it was their first away defeat all season (8-4-1, 26:13 away from home). Before that defeat at improved Bishop's Stortford, they won 2:1 at 16th Maidenhead, 2:1 at 7th Eastleigh and 4:0 at 4th Fisher and shared points in a 2:2 draw at league leaders Lewes. They have a couple of in-form strikers upfront – Nathan Crabb scored four times in the last three matches and Atkin scored three times. It was all Eastbourne when these outfits played on Eastbourne's pitch three weeks ago (4:1 for Eastbourne) and I expect a strong win for Eastbourne once again.
(2.62 also at Skybet, 2.59 at Bet365, 2.50 at Gamebookers, 2.49 at StanJames, 2.47 at Stanleybet...)
FT 1:1 / 0:4
RYMAN PREMIER
Harrow – Wimbledon 2 (2.38 @StanJames) 4 units
Harrow are currently 10th, but Ryman Premier is extremely unpredictable this season – any team can beat another on their day. Harrow, for instance, have only 10 points more (and played two matches more) than 19th Hastings who is down in the relegation zone, but also only six points less than 2nd Hendon. What we can focus on is the motivation, determination, support and individual quality (coupled with value odds indeed) and Wimbledon are one of two teams that are almost always a favourite in a Ryman Premier match. Because of all that, I simply have to bet on Wimbledon at these odds. Harrow had four straight wins in January (three of those four teams teams are relegation candidates though – 22nd Leyton, 17th Heybridge, 15th Boreham Wood and 6th Ramsgate), but finally lost some points last Saturday at 13th Ashord (lost 2:3, scored out of two penalty kicks). Highly acclaimed young winger Shroot who was one of the key players in Harrow's January fairytale (and scored three goals in those January matches, 8 goals in 12 matches all together) won't play in this match because he is in fact Wimbledon's player on loan at Harrow and Wimbledon's manager now recalled him – of course. Harrow have 8-0-6 at home, nothing special. They scored a lot of goals in those 14 matches – 31, but conceded more goals at home than any other outfit (except Leyton of course) – 30. Wimbledon will score here – I hope more than they can concede.
Wimbledon now have five matches in a row without a victory, but they're still 3rd and they still very much want to promote (and they're still one of the best away teams, not to mention their away support that could also prove very important). They produced a battling performance against Conference National high-flyers Torquay in the FA Trophy (we were there to bet against them), full of energy and effort, they were a lot better than I thought they would be with all those players out. They have a new keeper (Pullen from Eastleigh) and now they brought in striker Cumbers on loan from Gillingham and another talented forward Rose on loan from QPR. Shroot is back and can easily replace one of the injured players, but some of those players who were injured are now also back in the team (defence should look a lot more solid than in the last couple of matches) and Wimbledon definately want to win this match – and promote to Conf South at the end of the season. I think their motivation and individual quality will prove to be crucial here. And yes, it was 2:1 for Harrow at Wimbledon four months ago (it was the first Wimbledon's home defeat, completely unexpected – I bet it hurts still). 2.38 for a sweet revenge like this? Anytime.
(2.38 also at Gamebookers, Skybet and PartyBets, 2.30 at Bet365 and Paddy Power, 2.25 at Stanleybet... 1.68 currently at Pinnacle for DRAW NO BET...)
FT 0:2
SOUTHERN PREMIER
Hemel Hempstead – Team Bath 2 (1.83 @StanJames) 4 units
Team Bath are doing great in Souther Premier, but odds on them were awful lately and now we finally have a bit of value here. Team Bath are currently 2nd, but they played two matches less than leaders King's Lynn who also have 51 point (Team Bath have 15-6-3 and King's Lynn have 15-6-5). Team Bath have 5 wins in a row, two away wins in a row, they're the best away team in the league (8-2-1, scored 16 and conceded only 6 goals away from home, lost only at the second best home team in the league, Halesowen) and they have the league's best scorer – Sean Canham who already scored 23 league goals so far and is currently on fire. They're an academy outfit, I already wrote about their regular trainings earlier in the season and I really like these odds. A narrow win would be fine enough.
Hemel Hempstead are currently 6th, they're starting to get left behind (played more matches than most of the teams around them – no midweek fixtures for them in the near future), they're the worst home team in the league except for Cheshunt of course (3 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats), in the last four matches they have three defeats (1:5 away at 12th Tiverton, 0:2 at home to 13th Bromsgrove, 0:1 away at 14th Swindon last Saturday when the hosts totally dominated the match and could've easily won by a lot more goals) and a win away at bottom of the table Cheshunt (a month ago), they lost a couple of important players lately and now they're going to be without suspended defender Bowden-Hasse. And yes, one of their two managers just got fired (from the fans' forum: ''...Maybe someone could let me know whats going on? Danny going, players leaving and after good start bit of a slide down table...', '...Get someone in who can motivate the players and I still think we could just about reach the play-offs, stay as we are and mid-table beckons...', '...The difference last season is that Steve Bateman had players who were willing to fight and really dig deep to grind out results. Watching that display Saturday it's hard to see where the fight and effort is going to come from...'). Can the other manager do the job? Against Team Bath? With a non-motivated and a weakened team? I honestly don't think so and even if I prove to be wrong, this would still be a good value bet because at the moment, my odds would be 1.70 max...
(2.05 at Stanleybet, 1.86 currently at Pinnacle, 1.85 at Tipico, 1.83 also at Coral, Paddy Power and Skybet, 1.80 at Bwin and Bet365...)
FT 1:3
CONF SOUTH
Sutton – Thurrock 1 (3.00 @Blue Square) 3 units
Sutton are bottom of the table, but they didn't lose hope – in fact, they just brought in Ramsgate's top-scorer Ball (14 goals so far this season) and that could only help Dundas who didn't have a good enough partner upront – untill now. Dundas himself scored 8 out of last 11 Sutton's goals. Another recent signing is the on-loan arrival of central defender El-Salahi few weeks ago from Eastleigh (El-Salahi went straight into the first team and stayed there) and both Honey and McBean are finally fit. Sutton were quite solid last Saturday away at 8th Bromley – lost 0:1, but they should've got a penalty kick that was ignored by the referee. They were also unfortunate not to get something from their last home match against 5th Newport. Again they lost 0:1, that time the ball struck Dundas' arm in the Sutton's box and referee pointed to the spot. That goal from a penalty was the only goal scored, but it was obvious even then that Sutton will take some points soon. This home match against lousy visitors from Thurrock is the perfect opportunity and you should know that Sutton managed to beat 3rd Hampton at home a month ago (it was 2:1 for Sutton and also 2:2 a week later away at Hampton) and they have to hurry if they want to try and avoid relegation. They will definately be more motivated than Thurrock who are comfortably mid-tabled (13th currently). Ball could be a big refreshment upfront and Thurrock probably expect a lot easier match than they will get. A message to Ball from one of Sutton's fans: '...a hatrick against Thurrock would be nice, no pressure...'. Oh I love a sence of humor during the bad days. So they really have nothing more to lose and I can't see Thurrock being more determined in this match. If you're worried about Sutton's four defeats in a row, you should know that they really had tough opponents (after they shocked Hampton, they won away at poor St Albans too, but then lost to 6th Bath, 4th Fisher, 5th Newport and 8th Bromley – all very serious promotion canditates).
Thurrock had a couple of amazing results at home recently, but away from home they're nothing to be scared of, winning only once in their last 9 matches (they lost 1:8 at 8th Bromley, shared points at struggling, 19th Welling, surprisingly won at relaxed Hampton and finally lost 1:3 at 18th Bognor few weeks ago). They will be without both of their central defenders – Paine who started every single match for Thurrock this season so he's obviously hard to replace (he was even the man of the match two weeks ago against Bishop's Stortford when Thurrock managed to score a goal and keep a clean sheet) and Swaine who is the current fans' favourite but now will be missed for six matches in a row. I just found out about Swaine – planned to bet against Thurrock even when I thought he'll be in the team. But now, when I know that Paine and Swaine are both out – I'm raising my stake from 2 to 3 units. Last season, it was 2:1 for Sutton and I hope for a similar result that really wouldn't be that big a surprise.
(3.30 at Stanleybet – value bet indeed, 3.00 also at Coral, 2.95 at Digibet, 2.85 at Betway, 2.80 at Sportingbet, 2.75 at Gamebookers, Bwin and PartyBets... 1.72 for (+0.25) at Pinnacle currently...)
FT 1:0
Post je objavljen 09.02.2008. u 18:39 sati.