CONF SOUTH
Basingstoke Fisher 2 /DRAW NO BET (2.00 @Betway) 7 units
Incredible odds for a DRAW NO BET here we will make +7 units profit in case of an away win or get our money back in case of a draw.
Basingstoke are currently 8th, but like I said already a hundred times, they were never serious play-off candidates. Their negative goal-difference (40:45) says a lot really. I wrote a lot about Basingstoke a week ago before their 0:6 defeat at Eastbourne that brought us a nice couple of units. They will again be without defenders Whisken (suspension) and Townsend (injury) and midfielders Surey (suspension) and Laidler (injury), but now they will also be without their experienced right-back Smith (suspension) and maybe even central defender Dolan (injury). Four out of five are standard players (Townsend is a sub who could play right-back instead of Smith if he was fit), it was very hard for them to play against Eastbourne and it's going to be even tougher now when Smith, who even scored three goals in the last 10 matches (he is practically unreplaceable, like Surey, and we saw what happened at Eastbourne, when Surey didn't play), is also out. Vockins should be a debutant in Basingstoke's back four in this match he never started a match this season so far and was the only unused sub at Eastbourne. Their new keeper Tardiff (joined them a month and a half ago) conceded 17 goals in the last 5 matches. At home, they managed to beat only the teams that are relegation candidates (22nd Sutton, 15th Cambridge, 13th Thurrock, 21st Dorchester, 19th Welling, 20th St Albans, 18th Bognor Regis the only exception is the shock-win over 5th Newport two months ago) they lost to 2nd Eastbourne, 3rd Hampton, 10th Bishop's Stortford and 6th Eastleigh. They shared points only once at home it was a goalless draw against another relegation candidates, 16th Weston. They also lost both their FA Cup and FA Trophy home matches against league rivals (0:1 to Newport in the FA Cup, 1:4 to Lewes in the FA Trophy).
Fisher are currently 7th, but they played two matches less than Basingstoke. 4th Bath City, who played the same number of matches like Fisher, have only three points more than Fisher. They're one of the best away teams in the league (7-1-4) and currently have six wins in a row. In fact, it would've been eight wins in a row if they managed to beat league leaders Lewes back in December they didn't, but nailed six wins after that, scoring 13 and conceding only 5 goals. They have three away wins in a row they managed to beat 19th Welling, 9th Bromley and 4th Bath City so it's not only relegation candidates they can beat. At Bath City, they had two penalty kicks scored one and missed one, but were a better team their keeper was apparently just a spectator for most of the match. They fully deserved all three points at Bromley too I just saw the match highlights. They have very dangerous counter-attacks (they should score at least a couple of goals here) and their defence looks very solid. They also have three home wins in a row, but that's another story. Btw, it was 4:1 for Fisher at their place back in August. Fisher have great scorers in Goulding, Tomlin, Thomas, McCollin (who was rested at Bath after scoring four goals vs Sutton), it doesn't matter who plays and who sits on the bench (Goulding is on his way out currently, but that doesn't worry me), and they have no suspension problems. Great odds.
(You can also improvize this DRAW NO BET yourself StanJames offer 2.63 and BetDirect and Better both offer 2.62 for an away win, and both Skybet and Stanleybet offer 3.60 for a draw... Pinnacle were also generous with their 1.93 for a DRAW NO BET it's 1.87 currently...)
FT 1:5
FA TROPHY
Wimbledon Torquay 2 (1.72 @StanJames) 6 units
Wimbledon have more important things to worry about right now than the FA Trophy. Their recent results in the Ryman Premier haven't been good and it looks like they will have to win in the play-off final match to get into Conference South (no automatic promotion for them, I'm afraid), because Chelmsford have as much as 15 points more than Wimbledon (who played only one match less) and I don't think they can lose more than 12 points untill the end of the season and even if they do, Wimbledon are going to lose some more points too. All throughout the season, they've been very unlucky with injuries and I think they would rather play this FA Trophy match right now than another league match. If we look at their matches from a month ago untill now we can see two defeats and two draws, not one win. They lost away at 17th Folkestone, then shared points away at 10th Billericay (who were leading twice) and at home with 18th Tonbridge (last Saturday) and then, finally, lost at home to 12th Boreham Wood this Tuesday. They have a lot of fans and the biggest crowds on their home matches by far in this league, but this season, they're only the 8th home team of the league (7-3-3). They changed 7 goalkeepers already this season, their record signing Main (a great striker who came from league rivals Tonbridge) will be out for two months, just like one of the best left-backs in the league Haswell and, all together, they had only 12 permanent first-teamers for the Boreham Wood match two days ago. They're the lowest-ranked team left in this competition and I think the journey's over, even if a couple of injured players come back into the team for this match.
I just have to copy/paste this almost in it's entirety: ''...AFC Wimbledon boss Terry Brown fears his side may have to contain non-league football's most potent strike duo on Saturday with only one first choice defender. Goalkeeper Andy Little (broken finger), Luke Garrard (knee) and Michael Haswell (knee) are already ruled out of this weekend's FA Trophy visit of Blue Square Premier high-flyers Torquay United. Jason Goodliffe faces a late fitness test on a sore hamstring that could leave just Antony Frankie' Howard - back from a three match suspension - as the sole regular in Brown's back four. Versatile Jake Leberl (shin) and midfielder Mark Beard (knee) are on the treatment table, while hotshot Jon Main is cup-tied for a game he would have missed anyway after breaking his foot in Saturday's 2-2 draw with his former club Tonbridge Angels. Meanwhile, the Gulls expect to have former Don Roscoe Dsane and ex-Kingstonian striker Tim Sills, the club's leading scorer, in their line-up for the biggest game in AFC's six-year history. And Brown has admitted the hitmen - whom he managed in his spell in charge at Aldershot - have the potential to wreck their hopes of making the fourth round. He said: "They are an experienced and talented front two - probably the most potent strike force in non-league football at the moment. It is my job to work out a way of stopping them. "It is going to be even more difficult without our first choice defenders. Without them, we have conceded seven goals in our past three games. You can sometimes have four or five of your squad out and get away with it but, with seven regulars on the sidelines, it will be tough. They are the best team we will face all year but, on our day, we can be just as potent. We have nothing to lose." Brown's team have played 12 games since December 22 and he believes his stretched resources are a symptom of the strain taking its toll. They hardly go into their big game in the best frame of mind, Tuesday night's 1-0 home defeat by Boreham Wood being their fourth game without a win...''.
Torquay are the second best away team in Conference National (8-3-3, 33:24) and they're also currently 2nd on the league table (Conf National is two levels above Ryman Premier). New signing D'Sane and Sills make a great forward duo upfront (they played together a couple of years ago at Aldershot so they know each other) and another two new signings, Mohamed and Adams, both played very good against another team that plays great away from home, Histon (Torquay won 1:0, but it could've been a lot more), a couple of days ago. They obviously take the FA Trophy Cup seriously they won 2:1 at Newport (who play in Conf South and are currently a lot better team than Wimbledon) a few weeks ago and they were full-strength, so I expect a full-strength Torquay team this time too. They shouldn't lack motivation final match of this competition will be played at mighty Wembley and that's something you can't ignore. Their only away defeat in the last four months (!) was at 6th Exeter, but that was a crazy Boxing Day fixture, the result was 3:4. In these four months, Torquay managed to win at 11th York, Conf South outfit Bath City (in the FA Cup), 14th Crawley, 21st Farsley, 16th Woking and another Conf South outfit Newport (in the FA Trophy), and share points at 15th Oxford (in October) and 10th Salisbury (two weeks ago, hit the woodwork twice) both great home teams (Oxford have only two home defeats so far and Salisbury have three). Woods will be back after being suspended and these odds look great.
(1.72 also at Bet365, Blue Square, Ladbrokes, Coral, BetDirect...)
FT 0:2
CONF NORTH
Gainsborough Hinckley 1 (1.75 @Bwin) 4 units
Gainsborough are currently 12th, but they're much better at home (6-5-4, 28:20) than away (3-3-7, 15:29). Doesn't look very impressive, I know, they had a bad run earlier this season, but now they have three wins and one draw (when they missed as many as six injured players) in the last four matches, and at home they have two handicap wins in a row over 20th Vauxhall (3:0) and over league leaders Kettering (who have massive 24 points more than Gainsborough and gigantic 39 points more than Hinckley) this Tuesday (3:1). Gainsborough will be without Burley, but they did fine without them against Kettering so they should be alright at home against poor Hinckley.
Hinckley are currently second to bottom, 21st, and they're terrible away from home (2-4-7, 14:28). They have four defeats in a row they lost away at 14th Redditch, at home to the very same 12th Gainsborough (it was 2:1 for Gainsborough), at home to 10th Boston and, finally, at home to 20th Vauxhall this Monday (0:1). Hinckley did manage to bring in two new players recently midfielder Hoyte on loan from Cambridge and striker Quailey from Nuneaton but three players also left them (Byron and Charles returned to their clubs and leading scorer Marrison went to Tamworth). Hinckley will also be without standard midfielder Kelly for the 3rd time in a row.
Copy/pasting from the Hinckley's fans' forum: ''...Three home games in a week against 3 teams in the bottom half, and we come away with nothing. Not only that, but we can only manage one goal, and that's from a dubious penalty. You can moan about the ref (who was an embarrasment tonight), you can moan about bad luck, you can moan about anything, but it doesn't change the fact that from these 3 games we should've been looking for at least 6 points and we've achieved nothing.....We had just 2 or 3 clear chances last night against Vauxhall. Thats a laughable statistic. We have looked to be positive at home and had the majority of possession but without creating chances what good is that? Even Leigh managed to put three past them on Saturday! Please can someone tell me why DT takes off Luke after 50 minutes? Harry Harris did nothing. Was Jacko injured? We badly missed him again. Even Lavs was very bad last night. You could sense the urgency and pressure of what was a must win game from kick off and I think that lack of patience and hurried manner was our downfall...''.
(1.85 currently at Pinnacle, 1.75 also at 10Bet, 1.73 at Bet365, 1.70 at Sportingbet, Bet-at-home, Betway... Only 1.62 at Stanleybet...)
FT 2:2
CONF NORTH
Barrow Redditch 1 (2.10 @Betway) 4 units
Barrow's management team is still doing a great job there not so long ago they were very serious relegation candidates, but look at them now. They're 13th, they have the 8th best goal-difference in Conf North (41:33) and four wins in the last five home matches. They managed to trash 2nd Telford (4:0), 8th Burscough (4:1), 20th Vauxhall (4:1) and 12th Gainsborough (4:1 again) before losing to incredible 5th Stalybridge 1:3 last Saturday who have 9 wins in the last 10 matches and seem unstopabble at the moment. Barrow had plenty of possession and two penalties against Stalybridge, but missed some luck and important defender Elderton who got injured in 11th minute (he's back in the team now).
Redditch are currently 14th (played one match more than Barrow), but they're nothing to be afraid of away from home (4-1-8, 10:23). They did have some nice results at home recently, but those wins happened against out-of-form teams, relegation candidates. Last Saturday, they lost 0:1 at home to 17th Solihull and they'll miss their striker Heggs for this match due to suspension. They have three defeats out of four away matches in the last two months they lost at 4th Harrogate, 9th Worcester and 6th Nuneaton before taking all points at Leigh RMI who are 22nd, bottom of the table by far, and Redditch's 1:0 win was more lucky than deserved.
(2.00 at Stanleybet, StanJames, Blue Square, Sportingbet, Coral, Skybet...)
FT 2:0
CONF SOUTH
(-1.5) Lewes Bognor 1 (1.92 @10Bet) 4 units
This is, in fact, a normal handicap Lewes has to win by at least two goals, and I think they're more than capable of doing that against Bognor. We saw what Lewes can do last Saturday, when they trashed Welling 4:0 away from home, and it was also 5:0 for Lewes at Bognor five months ago. Lewes were amazing at Welling (scored four, could've even been more, saved a penalty), I just saw the match highlights, and Bognor aren't much worse at the moment. Lewes have to win matches like these (defeat to Hampton two weeks ago was a nice warning and that was their only result in the last five matches that wasn't a strong, handicap win with a clean sheet) they are league leaders, but 2nd Eastbourne have only six points less and they played two matches less. 18th Bognor look like an ideal opponent at the moment.
Bognor have one win in the last ten league matches, last Saturday they lost 0:3 at home to on/off Eastleigh and they also have two away defeats in a row it was 2:3 at soon-to-be-midtable Basingstoke and 0:2 at FA Cup heroes Havant a month ago. Lewes will be without their standard defender Robinson (that's why I'm staking four units only), but this should be a strong win even without him after all, Bognor will miss a couple of players too (midfielder Birmingham who is also a team coach retired as a player a week ago fans think that the team doesn't look the same without him as they highly rate him, both as a player and a leader on pitch, striker Beck is a major doubt and Gargan's loan spell has just ended). Lewes are another level of football than Bognor at the moment.
(1.92 also currently at Pinnacle, 1.84 at Stanleybet, 1.70 at Digibet... StanJames, Bet365, BetDirect and some other bookies offer 1.80 for a HT/FT win, but I like these odds and this bet better...)
FT 0:1
CONF SOUTH
Eastleigh Dorchester OVER 3.5 (2.75 @Blue Square) 3 units
Eastleigh have a new young on-loan goalkeeper from Crystal Palace and will be without standard defender Everitt (played in the last nine matches) due to suspension. Dorchester really have nothing to lose here and I think they could score one or two goals. Eastleigh are currently 6th, but they were a typical on/off team recently failing to win at home against St Albans, but then trashing Bognor 3:0 away from home last Saturday. After five home matches without a win, it's probably time for a win now and if they score an early goal, we could see a lot of goals here. On-loan winger Marshall is about to sign a permanent contract, he's bain hailed as a new Eastleigh's hero when he arrived and the fans deserve to see their team picking up all the points at home finally. A handicap win looks pretty good too, but you can never know with Eastleigh they had a 4:2 lead and a player more at home untill 85th minute when they were playing against Bath City a couple of weeks ago the match ended 4:4. So, if Dorchester will have a good day, this could also end 3:2, 4:3, something like that... We should see a lot of goals in any case the weather should be fine, no rain...
Dorchester are currently a mess a bunch of players are going and coming, seven board members left, there has been talks about moving and ground-sharing... They're currently second to bottom, 21st, and, like I already said, they have nothing to lose here. They have one win in their last 17 (!) matches and if we look at their last four results we can see a lot of goals (and you know what the weather was like). They managed to win, finally, at home vs 15th Cambridge a month ago (3:2), then they shared points away at 12th Hayes (2:2), then lost away at 2nd Eastbourne (1:4) and, last Saturday, they lost at home to direct rivals, 20th St Albans (0:3). After that handicap defeat to poor St Albans, their manager announced we shall see a completely different Dorchester team at Eastleigh. They have a new keeper, a new midfielder and a new striker, keeper Evans and striker Bent are out injured, Browne and Forbes are doubts, five trialists have been let go, maybe even some under-18 boys will play in this match... Oh they will concede here the question is how many goals...
(2.69 at Stanleybet, 1.86 at Pinnacle and at 10Bet for OVER 2.75... Stanleybet offer 1.63 for OVER 2.5 and 21.8 for OVER 6.5...)
FT 3:1
Post je objavljen 03.02.2008. u 20:11 sati.