FA CUP
Havant & Waterloovile – Swansea OVER 2.75 (2.05 @Pinnacle) 5 units
Havant & Waterloovile – Swansea OVER 4 (4.80 @Bet365) 1 unit
Higher limits at Pinnacle for this bet than usual – thank you Pinnacle. If these two bets look familiar to you, you're right – we had the same bets for the Chasetown-Cardiff match, a bit lower odds this time, but only a bit. Should I start the old story once again? Okay, bravo Havant, you made it all the way to the FA Cup 3rd proper round replay, but this time... The truth is – I'll be supporting Havant this time – it would be great for non-league football to have Havant, a mid-table club from Conference South, in the FA Cup 4th round proper, playing away at Liverpool. Who knows what can happen, it's the FA Cup. But, if someone would force me to bet on a correct result, I'd probably say 1:3 or 1:4, maybe even 1:5 or 2:5, something like that.
What I think will happen in any case are lots of goals. After drawing 1:1 at Swansea, Havant players couldn't even concentrate on the next league match (it's that big a deal) – we were there to bet against them when they lost 1:4 at Bishop's Stortford a week ago. This Saturday, they managed to focus finally and beat poor St Albans 3:1 at home. I would be surprised if they wouldn't do their best to score a goal here, to thank the fans for being behind them during this incredible FA Cup run. They certainly have the guys who can score vs any team. Rocky Baptiste, last season's best scorer, scored an equaliser at Swansea and is nominated for the player of the round (and Pacquette is also a very good forward), even defender Jordan scored twice against St Albans and super-sub Watkins scored against both Bishop's Stortford and St Albans. And they have some great wingers and attacking midfielders too.
Swansea are high-flying leaders of League One (three levels above Conf South). They score a lot of goals in League One – this Saturday, they managed to beat Luton 3:1 away from home and had a couple of high-scoring home matches just before the New Year (3:2 vs Leeds, 4:1 vs Cheltenham and, of course, let's not forget a 6:2 win vs Horsham in the FA Cup 2nd round proper – we were there of course to collect some units). If Liverpool beats Luton (and Luton are currently struggling with finances, a couple of players already left and that should also be an OVER match...), Swansea will field out their strongest team, but even if they don't, this bet will still look good – I already placed my units.
The first match at Swansea was very nervous and very unlucky for Swansea who hit the bar three or four times. Havant's left-back Poate injured Swansea's player Orlandi badly and got sent off (he will be able to play in this match, but not in the eventual Liverpool dream-match – he will miss as much as four matches). After that, Swansea's player Tate also got sent off and Swansea fans are furious becuase Orlandi is now going to be out for as much as three months. We could see another red card here and that could also help us with this bet. Loving these odds...
(10Bet offer 2.03 and Bet365 offer 2.00 for OVER 2.75... Bet365 offer all sorts of asian OVERs again – from 1.16 for OVER 1.5,..., 1.76 for OVER 2.5, 2.34 for OVER 3, and so on, all up to 5.20 for OVER 4.25... 1.69 at Stanleybet for OVER 2.5 and 2.84 for OVER 3.5... Betsafe offer 2.65 and Blue Square offer 2.63 for OVER 3.5... A lot of available OVERs at Paddy Power too and you can find an OVER 2.5 at more than twenty bookies – the odds for OVER 2.5 are between 1.60 and 1.73...)
FT 4:2
Post je objavljen 16.01.2008. u 22:55 sati.