CONFERENCE NORTH
Boston – Hucknall OVER 3.5 (2.88 @Blue Square) 3 units
I don't know, Betway obviously lost some money two days ago (3.25 for OVER 3.5 on the Eastleigh – Bromley match) so they decided they wouldn't offer that option for this match. Okay, at least Blue Square still has this option for all the Conference North & South matches and we're going to stake only three units this time, so that they continue offering that option for all the matches. Well, you know me, it's just a silly manifest really – the real truth is that this is a midweek match (and midweek matches often go mad), that I was a bit more confident on Saturday (it really would've been a major surprise if Eastleigh – Bromley match didn't produce four goals) and that these odds are worse than Betway's odds on Saturday. So, 3 units this time.
Boston are currently 7th – they scored 28 and conceded 21 goal in 15 league matches. They conceded more goals than any other top-8 outfit and only three teams in the entire league scored more than them (Kettering, Hyde and Southport). They have a couple of new players and they were great two days ago when they beat Vauxhall 5:1. Their last five league matches produced at least four goals and they're one of the best home outfits in the league (they're yet to lose a home match). Just look at their home matches in the last month and a half – 4:1 vs Buxton (in the FA Cup), 2:2 vs mid-table Worcester, 4:1 vs struggling Hinckley, 5:1 vs struggling Vauxhall. I expect a similar result in this match, but who knows, maybe Hucknall even surprise them and steal a point or three. I wouldn't bet on Boston here (the best odds are 1.67 and I think Hucknall will be up for it and score a goal or two, maybe steal a point – after all, Bosoton's defender Crane won't be playing again), but OVER 3.5 is a must. Fact: Hucknall have nothing to lose in this match and I'm sure they won't be defending their goal for the whole 90 minutes.
Hucknall brought in and lost a lot of players recently so I guess the new team is still getting used to play with each other, they have a new goalkeeper and they will miss standard midfielder Robinson due to suspension. They're currently 20th (in the relegation zone) with just one point more than bottom of the table Hinckley – they scored 20 goals and conceded 33 goals in 16 league matches (only Vauxhall conceded more). Let's take a look at Hucknall's away matches, shall we?
2:3 defeat at promotion candidates Kettering, 1:2 defeat at struggling Barrow, 1:4 defeat at mid-table Gainsborough, 1:2 defeat at play-off wanna-be's Burscough, 0:2 defeat at struggling Leigh RMI, 0:5 defeat at promotion candidates Southport and, finally, 3:0 win at mid-table Stalybridge (this Saturday, they shared points at home vs struggling Solihul Moors, they even had a 2:1 lead – I believed they could take all three points but no, the match ended 2:2). What can we see here? First of all, their away matches at promotion candidates (Kettering 2:3, Southport 0:5) both produced five goals. Second, even when they lose, they usually score. Third and very interesting, almost all of their midweek matches produced five goals (the only exception was away at struggling, 21st Leigh RMI when they lost only 0:2 – makes sense because Leigh RMI is one of the four outfits that score the least goals in this league). 2:3 at Kettering, 1:4 at Gainsborough, 5:0 at Worcester. What can I say, I'll definately risk three units and stake am extra couple of Euros on a 7+GOALS option at my local bookie Stanleybet (@20.8 again).
p.s.: There' s one more thing I just discovered – it shouldn't change much regarding this bet, in fact it could only help us.
''...Boston United are facing a fresh crisis after it emerged the Pilgrims fielded an ineligible player earlier in the season. The player believed to be Guadeloupe-born midfielder Ludovic Quistin, stands accused of taking part in three matches without international clearance. Boston general manager John Blackwell said: ''We don't want to jeapordise the hearing so we aren't commenting at the moment''...''
So, some points could be deducted, but I can see that going in two directions – either the points will be deducted and Boston's defense will probably be a bit more shaky because the players will be dissapointed with the outcome (strikers should score plenty vs Hucknall's defense anyhow), either the points won't be deducted and the players will use the whole case as an extra motivation to go on the pitch and score some goals.
(Stanleybet offers 2.42 for OVER 3.5, 2.74 for 4-6 GOALS option and 20.8 for 7+ GOALS option – ideal bet for some pocket change... Pinnacle offers terrific 1.95 for OVER 2.75 too...)
FT 2:3
Post je objavljen 14.11.2007. u 22:52 sati.