FA TROPHY
AD-HOC DRAW-NO-BET: Billericay – King's Lynn 1 (2.63 @Skybet) 6 units & X (3.60 @StanJames) 2 units
Couldn't believe my eyes when I saw these odds. I expected something completely different, something like 2.20 for Billericay and 2.63 for King's Lynn but we got exactly the opposite – that's what I call a value bet. Both of these teams are promotion candidates in their leagues (Billericay in Ryman Premier, King's Lynn in Southern Premier) and the home advantage could very easily prove to be crucial in this match. Billericay are indeed currently 15th in the Ryman Premier – that's probably the only 'reason' for these odds – but they have just four points less than 8th Folkestone and Folkestone played three matches more!
Billericay even had a lead at King's Lynn untill the very last moment – King's Lynn equalised, but Billericay, I still can't believe these odds, surely have at least equal chances for a win here, in front of their own supporters. Yes, Billericay have a big game this upcoming Saturday, it's Swansea at home in the FA Cup 1st round proper, but it was back in everyone's minds at King's Lynn too and Billericay almost won. Billericay are traditionally strong at home, they have three home wins in a row and they have a great scorer in Joe Flack who scored five goals in their last four matches (and it seems he likes Cup matches more – he scored 8 goals in 4 FA Cup matches and 3 goals in 2 FA Trophy matches, and another 8 goals in 11 league matches).
King's Lynn, of course, also have a chance here, they're doing great in Southern Premier (they're currently 3rd), but in their last three away matches, they have two defeats and one draw so they're really nothing to be afraid of. It seems like they're mostly concentrating on their league fixtures this season – they lost at Tamworth in the FA Cup and barely made it to the FA Cup 2nd qualifying round after a draw at Sudbury (never heard) and a narrow 2:1 home win in the replay at home. Billericay defenders must keep an eye on Bloomfield (just like King's Lynn will probably try to stop Flack) who scored three goals in King's Lynn's last three matches and is their best scorer this season. I hope they know it too, because if they do – we're even closer to another winning bet...
This is what one of the Billericay supporters wrote after the Saturday's match:
''..I thought it was a strong performance from us today, arguably our best of the season so far and that we were desperately unlucky not to come away with a win from a game that for the vast majority of were far superior in. It's often interesting to read the comparisons between the Southern and Ryman leagues, but on yesterday's evidence our league is far stronger...''
And these are the latest news from King's Lynn:
''... Keith Webb appears to have a selection headache ahead of Tuesday's trip to Billericay for the FA Trophy replay. Craig Fleming will not be available due to an ankle problem. Both John Turner and Joe Francis are major doubts and skipper Mark Warren will need a late fitness test on a calf problem. However Danny Bloomfield is OK after being substituted on Saturday. Webb is expecting to take a couple of players from the reserves to bolster his options...''
Huge value, so a nice bunch of units staked here. If Billericay wins, we gain +7.78 units and in case of a draw, we lose less than a unit. Fair enough...
(Bet365 and Tipico both offer 2.60 and Bwin, Digibet and Bet-at-home all offer 2.55 for a home win. You can find a draw for 3.50 anywhere. Pinnacle's 1.88 for Billericay (+0.25), which means a nice profit with a draw already, sounds absolutely great...)
FT 1:3
FA TROPHY DOUBLE: Marine – Bamber Bridge 1 @1.65 & Maidstone – Abingdon 1 @1.65 (2.7225 @Bwin) 5 units
Terrific value in this double. Marine should win their FA Trophy replay comfortably, they're playing great recently and after a couple of away matches, I'm sure they'll be up for this home cup fixture. Bamber Bridge are currently 5th in the Unibond North league (one league below Unibond Premier), but they're not the in-form team right now. Just look at Bamber Bridge's results in last two weeks – 0:2 defeat at home to Harrogate Railway in the league, 1:4 away defeat at Histon in the FA Cup 4th qualifying round, 0:5 away defeat at FC United of Manchester (not Manchester United) in the President's Cup and, finally, 1:1 at home vs Marine in the FA Trophy 2nd qualifying round. The Mariners have four home wins in a row, they're doing great in the Unibond Premier (wouldn't be surprised to see them in the Conference North next season) and really shouldn't have much problem here.
Maidstone will miss two players for this match due to their suspensions but that shouldn't matter much – they're playing great at home and had a similar task in the 1st qualifying round of this competition. They played away at Bury, managed to push it to a replay at home and then won comfortably, 3:1. Abingdon are 10th in the Southern S&W league (one league below Ryman or Southern Premier), but they played two matches more than 9th Gosport, and away from home, they have three wins, two draws and three defeats. In their last two league matches played away from home, they only managed to share points at 16th Taunton and 14th Thatcham. Maidstone have 6 wins out of their last 7 home matches. They've lost just twice and shared points only once in their 11 home matches this season, including a friendly against a strong Dagenham & Redbridge outfit. Apparently, Abingdon players celebrated their second goal in unsportsmanlike manner this Saturday (after that, Maidstone scored twice and the match ended 2:2) and their supporters had some kind of a spitting competition, so I'm sure Maidstone players will be up for it. The FA Trophy 3rd qualifying round brings literally hundreds of pounds to all the winners of the 2nd qualifying round so – no fooling around, guys, okay?
(Digibet offers the same odds, 2.70 at Skybet...)
FT 2:2 / 5:3
Post je objavljen 06.11.2007. u 23:56 sati.