CONFERENCE SOUTH
Havant & Waterloovile – Hampton & Richmond 1 (2.20 @StanJames) 6 units
Havant and Hampton both managed to get all the way through the FA Cup 1st round proper last Saturday – they both had a relatively easy task, Havant won 3:0 at home vs Leighton and Hampton managed to beat their Ryman opponents Wealdstone 1:0, at home too. Havant are currently 11th and Hampton are 6h, but things are bound to change soon. I predict Havant will be in the play-off zone and Hampton mid-table by the end of the calendar year.
Havant are not in the best form – I thought their last home match was going to mark the end of the bad run, didn't happen, they conceded an injury-time goal and lost two valuable points. But, looking at their opponents from now untill mid December, it seems Havant are finally going to nail a couple of wins in a row. Hampton, Fisher, Sutton, Thurrock and St Albans are outfits that Havant should comfortably beat – especially home matches (Hampton, Fisher, St Albans). They're traditionally very strong at home and this season they had only a couple of counter-examples. They lost to Lewes who were league leaders then and shared points with Braintree in the 1st round and with Basingstoke two weeks ago (experienced Oatway was rested in that match and they conceded a foolish late equaliser after missing a couple of great chances). 3:0 FA Cup win last Saturday probably filled them up with some confidence and I'm sure they will take this match very seriously. Havant will miss Slabber due to suspension, but Baptiste and Pacquette are Gale's first choice strikers anyhow and another striker Watkins has just signed from league rivals Sutton. Pacquette scored five goals in October and Rocky Baptiste added two of his goals. Gurney and Poate are finally fit too. Havant also have a great goalkeeper in Kevin Scriven – he conceded only three goals in five October matches and were voted Player of the month for two months in a row (August and September). Winger Potter came to Havant on a 3-month loan from Peterborough today.
Hampton did beat Wealdstone 1:0 in the FA Cup 4th qualifying round last Saturday but it wasn't that easy. Wealdstone were a better team in the 1st half and it took a couple of substitutions for Hampton to score a late winner. Hampton lost only three league matches so far but they had a pretty nice schedule. Away from home, they played vs 20th Bognor Regis (won 4:2), 4th Bath City (lost 0:2), 13th Hayes & Yeading (0:0), 15th Thurrock (won 5:0), 5th Bishop's Stortford (lost 2:6) and 10th Basingstoke (won 2:1). All the teams they managed to beat are in fact, forget about the current position on the league table, relegation candidates and handicap defeats to play-off candidates showed the true away strength of Hampton & Richmond. They're good enough for strugglers, but not so much for the teams that would like to play Conference National football next season.
(Of course, Pinnacle odds for Havant (-0.25), which means we get half a stake back in case of a draw, are absolutely fantastic – 1.83 at this moment. Betway offers 1.55 for DRAW NO BET, could be a lot better. Sportingbet and Blue Square also offer 2.20 for home win, Stanleybet offers 2.10...)
FT 0:3
Hayes & Yeading – Eastleigh AD-HOC DRAW-NO-BET: 2 (2.50 @Blue Square) 6 units & X (3.60 @StanJames) 2 units
Hayes & Yeading missed a great chance for playing in the FA Cup 1st round proper. They were playing away at struggling rivals Maidenhead – they lost only 0:1 but they played awful (Maidenhead looked like a team from league above) and only if they play the match of the season already, they could snatch a victory here, against high-flying Eastleigh. I wrote about Eastleigh a lot lately – they have a new manager, a couple of new players, they shocked Lewes 3:0 and kicked them off the top of the league table and then brought us some units away at Weston-super-Mare (3:0 again). They even scored three goals at home vs Conference National play-off candidates Forest Green (half a unit won there too), but lost in the replay away from home 1:4 (two of their players got sent off but, nevertheless, they had a great first half, took the lead and made quite an impression). Without the tough FA Cup fixtures, Eastleigh's recent goal-difference is 11:0 in three matches.
Newly merged Hayes & Yeading have a couple of nice results after a terrible start of the season, but their results aren't that spectacular if we look at their opponents – 10th Basingstoke (home, 1:1), 17th Welling (away, 2:1 win), 22nd Sutton (away, 2:1 win), 1st Eastbourne (the only shock result is their 1:1 home draw with current league leaders), 14th Braintree (away, 1:0 win), 15th Thurrock (home, 1:1) and 12th Fisher (home, 2:1 win). Now they're again playing at home, but this time against a team that seems unstopable at this moment and the draw is IMO the worst that can happen to Baird's Eastleigh outfit here and that's only if Hayes players get really lucky.
Hayes & Yeading will be without their standard winger Liam Collins due to suspension and left-back Peter Collins is out injured. The other left-back Nuako just left Hayes and joined league rivals Fisher.
You can watch the match highlights from the Maidenhead – Hayes match yourself:
http://www.yeadingfc.no/video/Maidenhead_v_H&Y.wmv
You'll see that Hayes & Yeading aren't a very good team. If you think that they're much better at home – well, they're not really. They were very lucky to take four points out of their last two league matches – Thurrock could've beat them with a handicap if they only had a bit more luck and Fisher were a better team for the biggest part of the match. The most important thing Eastleigh defenders must do is to keep an eye on Hayes' forward Palmer who scored an equaliser against Thurrock and a winner against Fisher, both times with a scissor-kick. If they manage to neutralise Palmer, this has to be a winning bet. Maybe I should write an e-mail to Eastleigh's manager...
(Betway offers 1.65 for DRAW NO BET, but I like this improvised one better. We win 7 units if Eastleigh win and lose less than a unit in case of a draw... Sportingbet, Primebet, Digibet and TopSportWetten offer 2.40 for away win and Skybet and Bet365 both offer 3.60 for a draw. Stanleybet offers fanstastic 2.60 for away win...)
FT 2:4
CONF SOUTH DOUBLE: Newport – Dorchester 1 @1.60 & Lewes – Sutton 1 @1.40 (2.24 @Sportingbet) 3 units
Dorchester are really struggling, they lost four of their last away matches and their discipline started to run lose also. Newport lost two times to Bath City, but their manager knows Newport inside-out. They quickly bounced back with a 3:1 away win at Fisher and after a goal-shy start of the season, they're finally started scoring. Hughes scored three times and both Griffin and Evans scored twice in October.
After an away defeat at Eastleigh and a home draw vs Maidenhead, Lewes pulled off a big surprise in the FA Cup, beating Conference National outfit Grays 2:0 (before that, they played with Sutton in the FA Cup and won 1:0). Sutton finally have a new manager, but he's going to look for his first points elsewhere. Lewes are just too strong for them now. Sutton have seven league defeats in a row and they scored only once in their last three league matches, away at Thurrock.
(2.15 at Bet365, 2.14 at Betway, only 1.88 at Stanleybet ...)
FT 3:2 / 4:0
CONF NORTH/FA TROPHY DOUBLE: Kettering – Blyth 1 @1.57 & Stocksbridge – Witton 2 @1.57 (2.4649 @Skybet) 2 units
Kettering doing fine after the mini-crisis, they're currently 3rd but are still one of the biggest title candidates. They're great at home (6-0-1, the only defeat happened vs high-flying Hyde – Kettering defenders didn't manage to stop Seddon who scored a brace). Blyth aren't very good away from home (2-2-2, goal-difference 5:7) and only if they're very lucky, they could end up with a point here. Witton's defence should be too solid for Stocksbridge – Witton conceded only seven goals in the league so far (15 matches) and scored 36. Stocksbridge are one of the worse home teams in the league below Unibond Premier.
(2.43 at Bet365, 2.32 at Bwin...)
FT 1:0 / 2:5
Post je objavljen 03.11.2007. u 18:03 sati.