Tuesday
RYMAN PREMIER
Leyton – Chelmsford 2 (1.80 @Bwin) 7 units
After winning 3:0 at Hastings this Saturday, big spenders and title candidates Chelmsford should pick up another three points at a much worse team. These odds are looking good (should be 1.70 max IMO) and Leyton is looking really bad.
Leyton is currently bottom of the table with eight points from ten matches. This Saturday they've lost at home to 8th Folkestone Invicta (0:1) and before that they've also lost away at 14th Harrow (2:5), away at 15th Billericay (0:4), at home to 6th East Thurrock (1:3), away at 5th Ramsgate (2:3) and away at surprise leaders Hendon (1:2). They managed to draw at home against 13th Harlow (August 18th) and at home against 9th Wimbledon (September 8th) and to win at home against surprisingly 2nd Horsham (September 4th) and away at 20th Ashford (September 22nd). Leyton will also be without their suspended defender Gracey and they are already out of both the FA Cup and Ryman League Cup – Potters Bar, a struggling outfit from the league below Ryman Premier, managed to beat them 3:1 a week ago (in the League Cup) and this is what Leyton's manager said after that match:
''... Despite making so many changes I still though I was putting out a side capable of winning this game against a team struggling in the division below us. But the first half performance wasn't acceptable and it proved to me that my squad just isn't strong enough. It was another lesson for me and I will have to go away now and try and find some players that are good enough to take us to where we want to be. Yes the second half was slightly better, but in the end I had to bring on all my substitutes and it defeated the object of trying to give people a rest...''
Chelmsford had really hard away matches in the league up untill now – they've shared points or lost at all the promotion candidates (Margate 1:1, Billericay 1:1, Hornchurch 0:1, Horsham 1:2) but exploded this Saturday at 11th Hastings and won comfortably (3:0). Before that, Chelmsford also won their two away cup fixtures (2:0 at Hemel Hempstead, 2nd team in the Southern Premier, in the FA Cup 2nd qualifying round, and 3:2 at Ryman North outfit Bury Town in the Ryman League Cup – Chelmsford were playing without their no1 goalkeeper and a couple of other standard players).
Chelmsford also recently welcomed back a couple of players who were injured for some time and they have a massive away support (like, hundreds of people) and a long, long bench if something goes wrong.
The only thing that worries me a bit is the weather. Heavy rain is expected untill afternoon – the pitch won't be in a perfect shape but with such a difference in quality and such nice odds, I simply have to take this bet even if I'm going to curse the rain and the state of the Leyton's pitch after the match.
(Pinnacle offers 1.92 for the straight away win in this moment, but we all know this moment won't last. Bombabet offers 1.79 and Sportingbet, Primebet, Gamebookers, Bet-at-home, Tipico and Partybets all offer 1.75 on away win – like I said in the preview, anything above 1.70 sounds good to me...)
FT 1:2
Monday
UNIBOND PREMIER
Ashton – Whitby OVER 2.75 (1.82 @Pinnacle) 6 units
Ashton and Whitby are both relegation candidates this season and both teams like to score and concede a lot. Ashton's goal difference in 11 matches is 20:21 (14:12 in six home matches) and Whitby's goal difference in 10 matches is 20:22 (7:11 in five away matches). Both teams lost this Saturday – Ashton played away and lost 2:5 at struggling Worksop and Whitby played at home and lost 1:2 to mid-table Kendal.
Ashton's manager recently brought in a couple of new forwards (experienced Fitzpatrick from Radcliffe, Smith who played for Leigh RMI and attacking midfielder Chapell who scores a lot of goals too) – always nice to know. Last season these two teams played 2:1 and 3:2 – both times the visitors won the match. 3:2 Ashton away win happened at the end of last season, in April this year.
Whitby's recent results are awful – Bradford, a club from league below, managed to beat them 4:0 in The FA Cup recently (Ashton is also out of the FA Cup, they've lost 2:3 at Nantwich) and they have some injuries to deal with too:
''... Player-manager Lee Nogan will again be without Ant Ormerod, who misses at least five more weeks of football with a calf injury, and likely skipper Matty Appleby who is awaiting the start of a three-match suspension for his sending-off at Bradford where Town tumbled out of the FA Cup. Right-back Andy Burton was stretchered off suffering a twisted knee during the Kendal game and must be highly doubtful- fellow defender Alex Janes may also not make it after missing the last two outings with an ankle problem...''
The odds will probably change and, unfortunately, we have no alternative for this bet. If you ask me, OVER 3 and even OVER 3.25 for odds better than 1.80 are also worth taking. I think at least four goals will be scored in this match... Tomorrow we'll have a bet that is not an OVER/UNDER bet, so it won't be necessary to bet at Pinnacle...
FT 0:0
Post je objavljen 09.10.2007. u 23:03 sati.