Wimbledon – Heybridge 1 (1.65 @Bwin) 6/10
Wimbledon was one of the main title candidates at the beginning of the season and they started the season well, with two wins (2:0 at home against Ramsgate, 2:1 away at Wealdstone), but then came one awful series of results (0:1 defeat away at play-off candidates East Thurrock, 1:1 at home against mid-table Staines, 1:2 defeat at home against on/off Harrow outfit that shocked Billericay in the last round too, 0:1 defeat away at play-off candidates Boreham Wood and, finally, 2:2 away at struggling Leyton). The mighty Dons (they attract the biggest crowd by far in the Ryman Premier, their average is around 3000) are currently 15th but, believe me, that can't last much longer. In the 1st FA Cup qualifying round, Wimbledon finally managed to win a game – they won 6:2 at Cray Wanderers (they are promotion candidates in a league below) and that could be and probably was a turning point. Heybridge Swifts are the ideal opponent at this moment. Wimbledon's midfielder Beckford scored four goals in last two matches and Wimbledon's manager brought in another quality striker too – Grazioli came on loan from Barnet but he isn't allowed to play in the FA Cup so this is a chance for him to show what he knows.
Heybridge Swifts are one of the relegation candidates and they surely play that way too. They are currently 21st with four draws and three defeats. Away from home they're really bad (2:2 at new boys Harlow, 0:2 defeat at mid-table Staines, 2:3 defeat at relagation candidates Ashford) and in the last round they were playing at home, against mid-table Folkestone, and lost 0:1. In the 1st FA Cup qualifying round, they played at home against their rivals from the bottom of the Ryman Premier table (Leyton, currently 20th – also in the relegation zone) and managed to win 4:3. But they had a 3:0 lead and conceded three goals and then somehow managed to score a winner in 89th minute (so it wasn't easy). I just can't see them doing much away at Wimbledon. All bad runs must end someday if the team (or, khm khm, a tipster) is good.
FT 1:0
Margate – Hendon 1 (2.50 @Stanleybet) 5/10
Another very interesting match from the Ryman Premier. Margate are currently 10th, but they're definately play-off candidates (they finished the last season on the unlucky 6th place) and they're traditionally very strong at home – this season their home form is 2-1-0 (1:1 against maybe the biggest title favourites Chelmsford, 2:0 against play-off candidates Horsham and, finally, 3:1 against relegation candidates Tonbridge). In the 1st FA Cup qualifying round they were playing away at Chatham (league below) and comfortably won 3:0.
Hendon's manager is surprisingly realistic and he's still saying that his main goal this season is to avoid relegation. He knows that Hendon doesn't have a chance for automatic promotion (they have one of the lowest budgets in this league) – even a play-off spot will be hard to get at the end of the season. Yes, they did have a great run (they were bottom of the table this time last season and finished the season on 14th place) and they are currently top of the table but they also had easier opponents than all the pre-season favourites and Margate is their first true challenge. If you ask me, I expect a handicap home win and I'm pretty sure that this match can't end 0:5 (if it does, well, I'll bite my tongue and lose another 7 units).
Hendon's away form this season is 1-1-1 (0:0 at struggling Heybridge, 2:1 win at on/off relegation candidates Harrow and, finally, 2:3 defeat at East Thurrock who is currently 6th but I don't think they can make it to the play-off). They've won all their home matches but their opponents were 20th Leyton, 19th Tonbridge, 12th Hornchurch and 22th, bottom of the table Maidstone. Hendon almost lost in the FA Cup 1st qualifying round already. They played at home against Aveley, mid-table outfit from the league below. The match ended 1:1 ('It looked as if the team was suffering a reaction to the effort of the first seven games', said Hendon's manager) and Hendon had to play another match against Aveley a couple of days ago, this time away. Hendon was even losing 0:2 but managed to win in the end (3:2). I don't think they have the strength to do much at Margate. With this kind of odds on Margate home win, this is the best bet of the weekend.
Last season Margate managed to beat Hendon 4:1 at home and season before that it was 4:2 to Margate. And if you're still not convinced that this is a school example of a value bet, this is what Hendon's manager recently said:
'Promotion? No way! Listen, we've had a great start but there are too many excellent teams in this league realistically. If it was seven games remaining instead of seven games in, then we may stand a chance.'
Of course, you can also risk two units on a draw, just in case.
FT 0:2
Post je objavljen 21.09.2007. u 18:08 sati.