Last week, when Pat Riley decided to return to the sidelines after a 23-game absence due to hip replacement surgery, he was asked about the state of his Miami Heat team.
"We're in great shape," he said with a smile. "We've got Dwyane."
Unfortunately, Riley only had "Dwyane" – as in Dwyane Wade – for less than one full game before the Heat's All-Star player suffered a major injury: a separated left shoulder in a loss to Houston Wednesday night. After that, everything changed for Riley and the Heat.
With just under eight weeks to go in the season, Miami holds the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. What Riley had hoped would to be a run for the Southeast Division title has turned into a struggle for survival. So for Miami to survive without Wade, it will need two key players to emerge.
The obvious member of the Heat who must play well is Shaquille O'Neal. The Big Fella has been mostly nonexistent all season, suffering from a knee injury that has kept him out of 39 games. Even when he has played, Shaq has looked nothing like the Hall of Famer who has dominated the league for so long. He has lacked the energy and activity of years past, as Father Time continues to creep up on him.
Riley was encouraged Wednesday by Shaq's 20-point, 16-rebound performance in the loss to Houston. On Thursday against the Mavericks, O'Neal again looked as active and nimble as he has in a long time. He made quick moves in the post, fought for position and worked for offensive rebounds, finishing with 17 points and eight rebounds in just 25 minutes. On a night when Miami got blown out by Dallas, O'Neal was one of the few bright spots.
If Shaq is going to provide the interior offense, then Jason Williams must create on the perimeter. With Wade out, Williams is the only member of the Heat who can effectively run the screen and roll, and his penetration will create offense for his teammates. Williams has missed 20 games this season with injuries (most recently a strained abdominal muscle), and if he gets hurt again, Miami will be in huge trouble.
If Shaq and Williams can stay healthy and play well, the Heat can survive Wade's absence. They have solid role players – Eddie Jones, Udonis Haslem, Alonzo Mourning and James Posey, among others – but all of them depend on others to get them shots. O'Neal and Williams have the ability to make them all better, and if they do so, the Heat can still make the playoffs.
If Miami does manage to hang on and win enough games to qualify for the postseason, there's a chance Wade will be ready to return. And at that point – even as an eighth seed – the Heat can be dangerous. Why? Because Pat Riley can once again say, "We've got Wade."