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Sazetak iranskog nuklearnog zapleta (recent years)

Summary of West's nuclear standoff with Iran
Moves to report Iran to the U.N. Security Council for defying the world over its nuclear program gathered pace on Thursday.
Britain, France and Germany said their talks with Iran had reached a dead end and agreed the dispute should move to the Security Council for possible sanctions against Tehran.
Here is a summary of developments in the nuclear standoff:

In August 2002, a group of Iranian exiles, the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), said Iran was hiding a uranium enrichment plant at Natanz and other atomic sites.
The allegations were later confirmed by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the U.N. nuclear watchdog, which launched a probe into allegations that Iran was secretly developing atomic weapons as the NCRI and Washington claimed.
Iran says obtaining or using atom bombs would violate Islam and that it hid its facilities because of a Western embargo.
Tehran contacted a nuclear technology black market linked to the father of Pakistan's nuclear weapons program, Abdul Qadeer Khan, in the late 1980s in the midst of a war with Iraq. Iran received uranium enrichment technology and parts of a design for making the core of an atom bomb from Khan's people.
* Iran says its nuclear program is peaceful, but has failed to declare many potentially arms-related nuclear facilities and activities to the IAEA over nearly two decades.
* The IAEA, led by Mohamed ElBaradei, has found no hard proof of U.S. and NCRI claims that Tehran wants weapons, but has been unable to confirm its nuclear program is purely peaceful.
* In September, the IAEA board declared Iran had violated its obligations under the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which must be reported to the U.N. Security Council, but it set no date for referring the issue to the council.
* In late 2003, the EU began trying to persuade Iran to end its nuclear fuel activities in exchange for a package of political and economic incentives. In November 2004, Tehran agreed to freeze those activities temporarily while it pursued talks with France, Britain and Germany, the "EU3".
However, Iran restarted one of the suspended activities, uranium conversion, in August. This week Iran removed IAEA seals from uranium enrichment equipment, triggering the latest crisis.
* Russia, which has previously opposed sending Iran to the Security Council, has nearly $1 billion at stake in the Islamic republic's Bushehr nuclear reactor project plus a deal to supply the reactor with fuel that would be returned to Russia so Iran could not extract bomb-grade plutonium from it.
* Even if the IAEA board refers Iran to the Security Council at an emergency session in February, Tehran is unlikely to face sanctions at first while a diplomatic solution is sought.
* Several developing nations on the IAEA's 35-nation board oppose sending Iran to the Council for working on a nuclear fuel program, which is legal under the NPT. They fear setting a precedent that could be used to deny them nuclear technology.
* It is unclear if Russia and China, who like the United States, France and Britain wield veto power at the Security Council, would support tough action like sanctions against Iran.
* Possible U.N. sanctions range from travel curbs on government officials to a full trade embargo. Any restrictions on Iranian oil exports would be a two-edged sword for the global economy as Iran is the world's fourth biggest oil exporter.
* Israel has hinted it may use air strikes to try to cripple Iran's nuclear capability, though analysts say this would be no easy task. Washington has not ruled out military force either.

A sad malo o kontekstu svega...
Iran's major oil customers, foreign energy partners
Iran, the 4th biggest crude exporter, sits on 11% of the world's oil reserves.
Iran has the world's 2nd largest gas reserves and lies beside the Strait of Hormuz, the main shipping route carrying Middle Eastern oil to international markets.
Pumping close to 4 million barrels per day, its full capacity, Iran ships about 2.4 million bpd to international markets, with roughly 60% destined for Asia and the remainder mostly to Europe.
Iran refines 1.6 million bpd, mostly for domestic use.

The United States has the least to lose from any physical disruption.
It has barred U.S. companies from importing Iranian crude since 1995 because of its disapproval of the regime.

Washington has also threatened sanctions against foreign firms investing in Iranian energy, although these measures are widely disregarded. Many foreign firms are pursuing investment projects in the Islamic Republic.
The following have most at stake:
* Japan - Imports about 550,000 barrels a day of Iranian crude. Japan-led group due to invest $2 billion in a controversial deal to develop Iran's giant Azadegan oilfield.
* China - Imports roughly 300,000 barrels a day of Iranian crude. In the running to develop Iran's promising Yadavaran oilfield, which could require investment of at least $2 billion.
* India - Imports at least 150,000 barrels a day of Iranian crude. Iran due to supply India with liquefied natural gas (LNG) in deal valued at $22 billion. LNG exports to run for 25 years, starting from late 2009. India also angling for stake in Iran's Yadavaran oilfield. New Delhi planning a $7 billion gas pipeline from Iran through Pakistan to India.
* Royal Dutch Shell (Britain/Netherlands) - Buys about 200,000 barrels a day of Iranian crude. Developed the Soroush/Nowruz oilfields, which required investment of nearly $1 billion. Looking to invest in LNG plant with Spain's Repsol.
* ENI (Italy) - Lifts roughly 60,000 barrels a day of Iranian crude. Invested in Darkhovin oilfield project, with total investment at $1 billion. Involved with Total in Doroud oilfield, which required investment of $1 billion. Also invested in smaller, Balal oilfield with Total. Has stake in South Pars gas field worth just under $2 billion.
* Total (France) -- Imports modest amount of Iranian crude. Has invested heavily in Iran's oil and gas sector. Involved in the development of the Sirri, Doroud and Balal oilfields. Invested in South Pars gas field with Malaysia's Petronas and Russia's Gazprom. Looking to invest in LNG plant.
* Korea - Refines about 100,000 barrels a day of Iranian crude. Involved in giant South Pars gas field, investment worth about $1.6 billion.
* Turkey - Consumes about 140,000 barrels a day of Iranian crude.
* Spain - Lifts modest volume of Iranian crude. Hoping to invest in LNG project with Shell.

Dakle, USA je glavni zagovaratelj sankcija, moze u Vijecu Sigurnosti racunati na GB (kao i uvijek, naravno) te vjerovatno na Francusku kojoj je puna kapa pregovora.
Sad se opet vracamo na Kinu i Rusiju, koje ce kao sto smo vec vidjeli biti tesko nagovoriti:
1/ Za pocetak, Iran kupuje vecinu svog oruzja od njih
2/ Rusija radi na Bushehr reaktoru i u planovima je za nove nuklearne investicije u Iranu
3/ Kina posjeduje 50% dionica iranskog naftnog polja Yadavaran i dogovorila je isporuku 250M tona iranskog LNG-a u vrijednosti od cca $70 miljardi
A opet, sve da se i svih 5 clanica dogovori oko sankcija, sama provedba sankcija ce biti vjerovatno teza od dogovora...

Post je objavljen 14.01.2006. u 17:23 sati.