U komentarima nakon pretprošlog unosa, za koje vjerujem da je malo tko pročitao, sam se dotakao krivih procjena financijskih analitičara tj. ustvrdio da spomenuti usprkos tome što im je jedini životni cilj, ili svrha, po cijene dane pregledavati informacije i grafove, te za to nerijetko primaju i plaću veću od 300 tisuća kuna mjesečno, isti, otprilike, godišne donesu 40% pogrešnih procjena. Pogrešna procjena zvuči "kupite ASKF dionicu, fundamentalno je odlična, radi s skype-om i svakodnevno joj se povećava broj klijenata, a ujedno nema dugova i tehnički izvrsno stoji, svi buy signali su se poklopili, sve govori u prilog tome da će u ovo vrijeme sljedeće godine biti 50% skuplja". A u stvarnosti joj u tih godinu dana padne cijena s $15 na $3.
To govorim zbog toga što bi neki čitajući i ovaj blog mogli zaključiti "pa treba posložiti buy signale, RSI, EMA, MCAD, kad se poklope prekrize, a usput i fundamentalno dionica dobro stoji (dobar cash flow, nizak P/E, sektor je bulish), jednostavno kupuj i lova stiže". Nažalost, nije tako, na burzi nema easy money-a, dapače, mnogi shvate ne da nema lake zarade, već završe trading godinu u gubitku. Usprkos svakodnevnim proučavanjem fundamenata i tehničkih pokazatelja desetina, ako ne i stotina kompanija. Zaraditi je teško, nitko ne može obećati profit, siguran sam da velik broj tradera zarađuje manje od blagajnice u Keruma i za razliku od nje nema sigurne prihode, ipak, ako se posjeduje volja, vrijeme, novac,...te iskustvo koje dolazi koristeći spomenuto, postoji mogućnost da vaše procjene u većem postotku budu ispravne, te da s relativno malo novca u relativno kratkom vremenu zaradite više no dovoljno.
Svakako, da se vratim na temu posta:
Prediction: "If Microsoft gets serious about search -- and there is every reason to believe that it will -- Google will need brilliant strategy and flawless execution simply to survive."
Charles H. Ferguson, author, Technology Review, Jan. 1, 2005
Reality: Google didn't just survive in 2005. It ruled. In the most recent quarter, from July through September, its profit rose 633%, and revenues rose 96% from a year earlier. As for Microsoft? Profits up 24% and revenue...6%.
Prediction: "The big, big story of 2005 could be the collapse of the dollar."
Peter Schiff, founder of Euro Pacific Capital in Newport Beach, Calif., Jan. 2, 2005
Reality: Collapse? How about surge? Through mid-December, the dollar was up 17% against the Japanese yen and up 14% vs. the euro since the start of the year.
Prediction: Chinese Internet stock NetEase.com -- "organic and innovative" -- will outperform the market.
Richard Ji, Jenny Wu, and Mary Meeker, Morgan Stanley tech analysts, initiating coverage of stock on Sept. 12, 2005
Reality: In the first three months after Meeker's team recommended NetEase, its shares fell 25%. Oops.
Prediction: Calpine Corp., the big electricity generator, "is making progress with a big financial restructuring. If they just liquidated the company, you'd get $6 a share."
David J. Williams, portfolio manager of the Excelsior Value & Restructuring Fund at U.S. Trust Corp., Dec. 27, 2004
Reality: Calpine's shares were around $3.50 when Williams made them one of his top picks for 2005. They're trading now for 24 cents -- down 93%
Prediction: Overproduction by OPEC could cause a steep decline in oil prices: "We are concerned about the future. We are concerned about a new severe drop in price like we have witnessed in recent days."
Iranian Petroleum Minister Bijan Zangeneh, Nov. 22, 2004
Reality: Oil prices were about $50 a barrel when Zangeneh fretted about a severe drop. They hit an all-time record of $70 a barrel in 2005 before easing back to "only" around $60 by yearend.
Prediction: Sales of gold by central banks could seal the yellow metal's fate as an economic relic of the Old World. "The pillars of the market are crumbling."
Andy Smith, a gold analyst at Mitsui Global Precious Metals in London, May 3, 2004
Reality: Those golden pillars didn't crumble in 2005 -- they turned into rocket boosters. Gold rose 20%, to 25 year highs, through mid-December.
Prediction: Mechanics at Northwest Airlines will win a strike because other workers will stand up for them. "We know we're not in this alone."
Ted Ludwig, president of Local 33 of the Aircraft Mechanics Fraternal Association, Aug. 9, 2005
Reality: Northwest Airlines had little trouble finding replacements for the 4,100 strikers, and few other workers honored their picket line. The ongoing strike is considered a near-total failure for labor.
Prediction: The Dow Jones industrial average will finish 2005 at 8,000 points.
Bernie Schaeffer, Schaeffer's Investment Research, Dec. 27, 2004
Reality: Technically speaking, this prediction could still come true, but it would require the Dow industrials to plummet 25% in the next two weeks. Anyone willing to predict that?
Prediction: 2005 will be "a year of economic difficulty."
A majority of the American people -- 54% of respondents to a Gallup poll, Dec. 17-19, 2004
Reality: For many people, it was a difficult year. But the unemployment rate is just 5%, well below its 30-year average. The economy is growing rapidly. And household wealth is at an all-time high. If 2005 was "difficult," then what would you call a recession?
Prediction: The U.S. will have fewer hurricanes in 2005 than in 2004.
Tropical Meteorology Project of Colorado State University, Dec. 3, 2004
Reality: 2005 broke all records for hurricanes. Including Katrina and Rita, there were 14 Atlantic hurricanes, seven of them classified as "intense." The Coloradans had predicted six -- only three of them intense. Granted, predicting hurricane season half a year before it warms up is no easy task. But guys, come on.
Izvor: BusinessWeek Online
Post je objavljen 28.12.2005. u 13:27 sati.