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Khuzestan Incursion 2006 scenario... realistic or...?

Iran will probably have nuclear weapons in 2006. That means that if US are going to act, it must be in 2005 or 2006. An air strike is always a possibility, but it is so easy for the Iranians to move much of their program underground that it is doubtful that it can solve the problem. At best, it will delay the problem giving US more time.

A more realistic solution, but still short of all-out invastion would be a "Khuzestan Incursion" scenario.
Khuzestan [] is the southwesternmost province in Iran. It is on the Persian Gulf and borders Iraq. While most of Iran is covered by high mountains, Khuzestan is a low-laying plateau. These mountains effectively isolate the province from the rest of Iran. Most importantly, this is where virtually all of Iranís oil fields are located.

The "Khuzestan Incursion" scenario could consist of the following. Once Iraqi elections have been held and the insurgency has been cut down to a small enough level that the Iraqi army can handle it (not happening yet!), the US moves half of its occupying army to southeast Iraq. This force would consist mainly of Mechanized Infantry divisions.
This force would rapidly take over the province and hold it. Any Iranian counter-attack would be forced to go through the narrow mountain roads, making them very vulnerable to air strikes.

Once the US Army has taken control of the province, Bush gives the following ultimatum.
1. Iran must destroy all WMD weapons and facilities, allow UN arms inspectors for verification, and promise never to seek WMD.
2. Iran must immediately stop funding, training and organizing terrorists groups and promise not to do so in the future.
3. Iran must abolish the Council of Guardians and transfer all its power to elected officials.
4. Iran must hold new parliamentary and presidential elections..
5. ......
If not fullfiled US will keep that region until .... forever?

p.s. they need allies like Blair for this plan and therfore retreat of British troops from Iraq should have been should support stay in Iraq, of course...

Any other opinion?

Post je objavljen 20.07.2005. u 12:47 sati.