26.4.2008. -0.32 units
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CONF NORTH DOUBLE: Barrow Worcester 1 @1.50 & Vauxhall Southport 2 @1.50 (2.25 @Betway) 4 units Barrow's chances for a play-off spot are looking very good in fact, they only have to win this match and they're in doesn't matter how other play-off candidates do. Barrow's 2:0 home win over Tamworth last Saturday was their 7th win in the last 8 matches and 5th win in the last 6 home matches (all wins except that 1:1 draw vs champions Kettering) they didn't play very well against Tamworth, it's understandable, it was their 5th match in 15 days, but like I said once before, after their new management duo took over a couple of months ago, they became the team that can beat anyone even when they're nothing playing their best. They have a great goalkeeper, they conceded only one goal (vs Kettering) in the last four (scored 9), Matt Henney scored twice and then came off to save some strength and health for this crucial match... The whole town is buzzing now when Barrow create their own destiny and don't have to rely on other results, they were finally without a midweek match so they're not that tired, huge crowd is expected and I expect a strong win for the promotion candidates. Barrow are one of the three best home teams in the league, they have 12-4-4 (39:18). Their motivation should prove to be crucial here, after all Worcester are right in the middle of the table, they're 12th, they've conceded 37 goals in 20 away matches (only five poor teams conceded more). They have only one win (1:0 at already relegated Leigh RMI) and five defeats (1:3 at Hyde, 0:3 at Kettering, 0:1 at Stalybridge, 0:6 at 19th Blyth and, finally, 0:1 at mid-table Workington this Tuesday) in the last six away matches, they've also lost their last two home matches (0:1 to mid-table Gainsborough and 0:2 to Redditch in the local Cup final) and they have some serious selection problems for this match, especially with strikers. Wilding is out suspended, Dinsmore is injured and Danks is probably going to leave the club soon (there are rumours that he already left) even if he plays, he won't be 100% fit, he wasn't even on the bench this Tuesday. Defender Khan is another injury doubt, important midfielder Nwadike left the club last month after they secured their safety and their no1 goalkeeper McDonnell is still out following his shoulder surgery. Worcester scored only two goals and conceded ten in April that's six matches (including two Cup final matches, they've won 1:0 at Redditch, but lost 0:2 to the same Redditch at home), Worcester had a midweek match every single week and they're definitely tired and, I'll say it once again, unmotivated. Yesterday their manager even announced they will have a much reduced budget for next season. Barrow are complete and only a big surprise could keep them out of the play-off zone. Southport are also creators of their own play-ff destiny if they win at Vauxhall, they're in, they could even finish higher than 4th. They take these play-off's very seriously they sacked their manager after two April defeats in a row (1:4 at Solihull, 0:1 to Kettering) and their new manager obviously knows how to regain confidence. Southport now have three wins and three clean sheets in a row (1:0 vs Alfreton, 2:0 away at Nuneaton, 2:0 vs Leigh RMI). Southport are one of the four best away teams in the league (11-3-6) and, before that shocking defeat at Solihull, they had three away wins in a row (3:2 at Hinckley, 3:1 at Tamworth, 5:1 at Telford) and let's not forget that 2:0 win at Nuneaton (a week ago) who still had some play-off hopes left then. Southport's best scorer Gray (27 goals this season) scored against Leigh RMI after not scoring in three matches in a row (before that, he scored 16 goals in 10 matches at least one in every single match), they have no important injury worries and they really have a perfect opponent, doesn't matter much that it's away from home. Okay, there is a bit of pressure, sure, but that's why they brought in a new manager and prepared for this, right? Vauxhall have been relagated for some time now, they have 15 points less than 19th Blyth who are 19th and safe. They have six defeats and an away draw at mid-table Tamworth in the last seven matches, their goal-difference in the last 11 matches is 3:25 (at home it's 0:8 in the last four), but their forward Heler who is still suspended for this match (along with midfielder Egerton) scored two of those three goals and assisted for the third. They still have some injury problems, they have the lowest home crowd in the league (Southport's away fans will most probably outnumber Vauxhall's fans) and they're usually terrible when they're playing against a team from or near the play-off zone. Just look at these results 0:6 at Kettering, 0:2 at Harrogate, 2:5 vs Stalybridge, 1:3 vs Telford, 2:3 vs Southport, 2:3 at Telford, 0:2 vs Barrow, 1:4 at Barrow, 0:6 vs Kettering, 0:1 vs Harrogate, 1:4 at Stalybridge. Not a single point out of those 11 matches against current play-off candidates. I don't think that this 12th match will produce a positive result for Vauxhall they are playing without pressure, but they're still playing terrible. (2.10 at StanJames, Expekt, Sportingbet, BetDirect, Better, Primebet, Stanleybet...) FT 1:0 / 1:2 SOUTHERN/UNIBOND DOUBLE: King's Lynn to win Southern Premier @1.33 & Fleetwood Frickley 1 @1.30 (1.73 @Bet365) 4 units I'll keep it really short here King's Lynn already have one hand on the title, they could win the title even if they lose this match (if Team Bath lose too and I can see that happening), everybody agrees that they have the strongest squad in the league by far and their goal-difference is much better than Team Bath's who are playing away at 4th Chippenham, a very strong team that only lost twice at home this season. And, honestly, I don't think students from Team Bath want to go up that much it was like that last season too, when Maidenhead went up through the play-off's. Team Bath have no fans (almost ten times lower home crowds than Conf South teams), everybody hates them and calls them 'Team Tax'... Well, it's a long story, but it would be very weird if Team Bath really end up in Conference South next season. Merthyr Tydfil are 13th, they had some nice results lately, secured their safety and that was the most important thing for them. They will miss two suspended players for this match and King's Lynn will bring a bunch of fans so the atmosphere will be quite good for the mighty Linnets. 1.33 is really too much for this 'King's Lynn to win Southern Premier' option. Fair odds would be 1.15. Btw, it was 5:1 for King's Lynn when they were playing against Merthyr at home, back in December. If Fleetwood win this match, they're the champions of Unibond Premier league. As simple as that. Pressure? Sure. Can they screw up? I don't think so. Witton are the ones who screwed up they've been the league leaders all this time, their goal-difference is still far better than Fleetwood's, but somehow they managed to screw up and now only a miracle could save them. What happened, you ask? Well, Fleetwood won all six matches in April. Witton played only three matches in April, won twice, but only shared points away at struggling, 19th North Ferriby. Of course, the most important thing happened in March, when Witton lost 0:3 at home to Fleetwood. Fleetwood deserve this title and Frickley at home, infront of their own fans, isn't a match they should be afraid of. Frickley are 13th, they're safe alright (they could drop a couple of places, but not all the way down to the relegation zone), they have two embarassing defeats in a row (0:3 at Witton, 0:4 at Buxton) and they'll miss two suspended players for this match. Fleetwood should crush them, but any kind of win is fine with me. Miracles happen, sure, but fair odds for a Fleetwood win should once again be 1.15, not 1.30. Both miniature odds, but value odds indeed. (1.66 at StanJames, Skybet, Better, BetDirect...) FT: yes / 1:1 CONF SOUTH Hayes & Yeading Bognor Regis 1 (2.00 @Skybet) 4 units OVER 3.5 would be a brilliant option here, anything above 2.20 would be a value bet, but as only Stanleybet and Pinnacle are offering OVER's in this case, this home win will be a reserve option for 4 units. Do I have to copy/paste Hayes' home results from the last couple of months once again? Well, here they are 3:1 vs Havant, 6:1 vs Bromley, 'only' 3:0 vs Bath (the most 'under' team in the league), 1:3 vs Newport, 2:2 vs Bishop's Stortford, 3:3 vs Braintree and finally, last Saturday, 3:1 vs Cambridge. Defender Collins returns after suspension, midfielder Hendry is still suspended, but that's not as important as the way Hayes play their football very attacking, very attractive, nice moves, fast counter-attacks... They obviously want to score as many goals as possible, they had fifteen or twenty shots on goal last Saturday, Cambridge could've conceded five or six and also score a few more, because of Hayes' defence that conceded 33 goals in 20 home matches. It would be strange for them not to score (and concede) a couple of goals especially in this kind of match, last fixture of the season, infront of their fans, against the team who is finally mathematically safe and should be a lot more relaxed and up for a good game of football. Bognor managed to beat Hayes 3:0 in November and they'll definitely be up for a sweet revenge. Scott and Palmer both scored 15 goals for Hayes this season maybe they'll be up for their own private competition. After playing a couple of matches under pressure, now when they finally secured their safety, we should see Bognor Regis playing a bit more attractive football. They will definitely feel more relaxed (and should concede at least a few goals) after they took that crucial point against poor Sutton and, after all, it's the last match of the season for them too. Bognor will be without midfielder Warner who is btw a fresh signing, but he got sent off in his first match for Bognor. If we look at their away matches in 2008, we can see a lot of high-scoring matches, 2:3 at Basingstoke, 3:5 at Bishop's Stortford, 2:2 at Cambridge, 1:3 at Fisher... They had a couple of UNDER's too, but this is Hayes they're up against, not Sutton. After losing 1:3 at Fisher three weeks ago, they scored three and conceded only two in three matches (1:0 St Albans at home, 1:1 at Hampton, 1:1 Sutton at home), but as I said, that was all very nervous, careful matches, fighting for bare existence in Conf South. They're safe now and even if they decide to try and play the most boring match in the world, Hayes wouldn't let them. Two reserve players will get a chance in this match, Birmingham is out injured... I expect a high-scoring home win here. (1.91 at StanJames, Blue Square, Bet365 and 888Sport, 1.90 at Sportingbet, Expekt, BetDirect, Better...) FT 0:2 CONF NORTH Kettering Gainsborough 1 (1.67 @Bet365) 4 units Once again, OVER 3.5 would be a perfect option here, this is only a plan B. Kettering have had an amazing season they have 17 points more than 2nd Telford, wonderful goal-difference 91:33 and at home they have 16-1-3 (55:18). They're still playing their best, unlike Lewes in Conference South, and this is a special occasion the last match of the great season, at home, infront of their fans. Out of Kettering's 16 home wins, 12 were by at least two goals. In 2008, they scored 31 and conceded 11 goals in 10 home matches. Kettering were the best team in the league from the start of the season (they had seven wins in the first seven matches), but they really started to score a bunch of goals in 2008 (6:1 vs Solihull in January, 5:2 vs both Southport and Hucknall in February...). They had five wins in a row in March (goal-difference 16:2) before an off-day and a 0:2 defeat at 19th Blyth who were succesfully fighting against relegation, and they've mathematically secured the title a long time ago, but announced they will keep winning, to be fair to other teams in the league. In April they have four wins (the only two home matches were both strong wins, 3:0 vs Telford and 3:1 vs Workington last Saturday) and an away draw at 5th Barrow. I'm sure Kettering remember that 1:3 defeat away at Gainsborough back in January. The club's chairman did his job everyone with a ticket can bring up to three friends for free for this match and the atmosphere should be very nice and very motivational. Kettering definitely want to finish this season on a high. ''...No-one has done the double over us and I don't want them to. We will be going all guns blazing to make sure we don't get beaten...'', said Kettering's manager who could come on as a substitute himself. Gainsborough are 10th and they're currently thinking about an eventual play-off push next season because they had some nice results lately. But, to be honest, those were just wins against already relegated teams and unmotivated mid-table teams when they played away at Hyde who were still thinking about play-off's back then (a month ago), they lost 0:3. Gainsborough scored 26 and conceded 37 goals in 20 away matches only a couple of worst away teams in the league conceded more (Gainsborough have 7-4-9 away from home). Let's take a look at Gainsborough's away matches at all the teams that can still mathematically reach the play-off's at this moment, shall we? 0:3 at Southport (1st match of the season), 1:2 at Telford (also a long time ago, September 1st), 1:3 at Harrogate, 1:5 at Stalybridge, 1:4 at Barrow. They also lost 0:3 at 9th Hyde and shared points at 7th Nuneaton (2:2) and 8th Burscough (also 2:2, last Saturday), so it's pretty obvious that they don't play well away at best Conf North teams (and concede plenty) and Kettering are the best team here by far. Gainsborough will also miss their midfielder and 2nd best scorer McMahon. I'm hoping for a 3:1, 4:1 or a 4:2 here (it was 4:2 for Kettering last season and 3:2 for Kettering away at Gainsborough last season), something like that... (1.65 at Expekt, BetFred and Betway, 1.61 at Gamebookers, PartyBets and 10Bet, 1.60 at Bet-at-home, Betsafe, Bwin, Primebet, Sportingbet...) FT 2:1 |
