21.4.2008. -5 units
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CONF SOUTH (-1) Newport Thurrock 1 (1.90 @Bet365) 5 units First of all, this is an asian handicap, not european it means we get our money back if Newport win by one goal exactly and the bet is won if they win by at least two goals. It's midweek so you can place this bet at a couple of bookies, even Pinnacle have a lot bigger limits for the midweek matches. I'll keep it short once again I wrote a lot about Newport last time, nothing's changed. 1:1 draw against Eastbourne turned out to be a good result for them after all (thanx to other promotion candidates) I just saw the match highlights, Newport was a better team by far, they had this one little defensive mistake (Davies was missing as he became a father a few hours before the match, but he will be available tonight) and conceded, but had lots of possession, created plenty of chances and Gurney was superb once again. They're home, if they win this they will jump into 4th place and I wouldn't be surprised with a big handicap win (something like 2:0, 3:0, 3:1...). They can't be that unlucky not to win this match, it would be too much after that extremely unlucky 0:1 defeat to Havant and this 1:1 draw vs Eastbourne. They're too experienced, they have too many good players and they know that, if they don't win this, their play-off spot is probably going to be just a dream. Thurrock have been terrible away from home from the start of this season. They had three away defeats in a row (at Bognor, Sutton and Lewes) before they finally managed to beat two teams away from home Maidenhead and Dorchester (Maidenhead are the worst home team in the league and Dorchester are, well, Dorchester). Now again they have two away defeats in a row, at Fisher and Bath, both handicap defeats, and I took a look at their away statistics, they usually have only a couple of shots on goal per match. They had only two shots on target at Bath, two at Fisher, three at Dorchester, four at Maidenhead, three at Lewes, three at Sutton... I can't see them scoring here but if they do, they should concede at least two or three. Thurrock are right in the middle of the table, 12th, can't get promoted, can't get relegated, and they'll miss a couple of very important players forward Lincoln and long-term absentee McKenzie are injured, two reserve players left the club last week and their defence could look unrecognizeable for this match. Swaine is suspended, Paine and Cole are both big doubts after they got injured this Saturday (1:1 at home vs 11th Braintree) and I doubt their manager is going to take risks. Long journey for the visitors and a great chance for the home team to get the first victory over Thurrock ever. From Thurrock's official web-site: '...It could be a great opportunity for a non regular starter to shine and make a name for themselves....'. (1.89 at Pinnacle, 1.88 at Bet1128, 1.85 at 10Bet, 'normal' or 'european' handicap is 2.37 at Blue Square and 888Sport, 2.33 at Stanleybet, 2.15 at MyBet and 2.10 at Digibet, but 'european' handicap means you don't get your money back if Newport win by one goal exactly and these 'european' odds are fair only at Blue Square, 888Sport and Stanleybet...) FT 1:4 |
