12.4.2008. -4 units
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CONF SOUTH Bromley Havant & Waterloovile 2 (2.63 @StanJames) 5 units Bromley Havant & Waterloovile HT/FT 2 (5.50 @StanJames) 1 unit Bromley were terrible in their last home match against Hampton they conceded two goals, both after corners, lost 0:2. They had a couple of chances to score, but they ruined all of those chances in a very silly way I think 90% of balls ended in the forest nearby. Last Saturday they played Newport away, lost 1:3 and their defence looked horrible once again. Their attacks looked very funny again too. Newport could've easily scored not five, but ten goals Bromley weren't just outclassed, they were humiliated. Havant will almost certainly score here, if nothing else from a counter-attack (they are very dangerous when they wait for the opponent to go forward) and Havant's defence should take care of those rare Bromley's chances that they usually waste in such funny ways (I just saw the match highlights from yesterday's Newport Havant match and Havant were defending very well once again). The reverse fixture away at Havant, back in September, was a particularly funny match. Havant scored an early-goal, but had a player sent-off already in the first half. Their keeper saved a penalty and Bromley attacked for the whole match, trying to equalise, missed some amazing chances, hit the post a couple of times, but just couldn't score. Havant are a much stronger team now, for instance Slabber who scored the winner against Bromley is now on the bench at Havant, simply because Havant brought in a bunch of very good players for this level after their lucrative FA Cup run. Bromley, on the other hand, only had a little swap with Wimbledon, promotion candidates from the league below, but it was a swap that helps Wimbledon a lot more than it helps Bromley. Wimbledon got defender Judge and one of Bromley's best scorers, McDonnell, and Bromley got midfielder Beckford who ended up on the bench and forward De Bolla who got sent off in his second match for Bromley and that meant he's going to miss three out of the last four matches. Not a good deal. Bromley will also be without their no1 goalkeeper a Walker who got injured in February. Their current keeper Williams conceded 9 goals in the last 5 matches. Havant had a lot of lousy away performances this season, but their away form improved after that amazing match at Premiership giants Liverpool in the FA Cup. If we look at their away matches in March and April, we can see only one defeat (at improved St Albans it was their 5th win in 6 matches), three draws (all promotion candidates and very tough teams Hampton, Bath and Eastleigh) and two wins (at Thurrock and Newport yesterday it was 1:0 for Havant, Newport's own goal was Havant's winner, but if Newport failed to score, I can't see Bromley scoring vs Havant we can't even try to compare Newport's and Bromley's defences, Bromley conceded 22 goals more than Newport this season). Havant are now 6th, the goal-difference is the only thing that keeps them away from the play-off zone (63 points, just like 5th Bishop's Stortford). Bromley can't make it to the play-offs anymore, they realise it now. They have five points less, but played a match more than Havant and Bishops. Both Havant and Bishop's Stortford have very beatable opponents untill the end of the season and Havant could make another giant step if they win at Bromley. Bishop's Stortford are playing at struggling Maidenhead and, to be honest, I wouldn't be surprised with a draw there Bishops were terrible against poor Basingstoke last weekend. I can't understand bookies in this case Bromley should be favorites here? Havant had a midweek match, okay, Bromley didn't, but the odds should be other way around anyway. I'll even add an extra unit on a HT/FT bet Havant usually score early and statistics show that, when they win a match in the end, Havant are recently always leading at HT too and, when Bromley lose a match in the end, they're recently always losing at HT too... (2.70 at Stanleybet, 2.63 also at Bet365, BetDirect, BetFred, Better, BoyleSports, Paddy Power, Skybet... 5.50 for a HT/FT win also at BetDirect and Better, 5.00 at BoyleSports, 4.50 at Bet365 and Coral...) FT 2:1 CONF NORTH Redditch Barrow 2 (2.40 @Blue Square) 5 units I have to copy/paste a part of an article published in local (Barrow) papers: ''...Barrow AFC have got two for the price of one in former Premiership ace Darren Sheridan. Manager of the month one minute midfield match-winner the next! The Cumbrian derby at Borough Park was heading rapidly towards a goal-less stalemate when Sheridan decided to dust himself down and come off the bench with 20 minutes to go. The 40-year-olds first few touches were pretty rusty but then, with only seven minutes remaining, Nick Rogan was brought down just outside the right-hand side of the area. Sheridan, who had created confusion in the Reds defence with one inswinging corner, lined the free-kick up with his trusty left foot while team-mates crowded the box. However, they only needed to stand and watch in admiration as their boss sweetly curled the ball just inside the apex of the far post and crossbar. Home keeper Adam Collin was left grasping thin air and the 170-strong contingent of Barrow fans behind the goal who had enjoyed a perfect view of the balls trajectory danced jigs of joy. It meant so much more than three points off their arch-enemies, it meant so much more than bragging rights for the season, it meant the play-offs were now within closer sniffing distance than the clouds of smoke wafting from the nearby Sellafield plant. Sheridan and Dave Bayliss had enjoyed their first game as caretaker managers in the Setanta Shield shootout success at Borough Park back in November and have since lost only two out of 25 in the league, gone the last 13 unbeaten, won eight of the last nine and now stand one point off the top five with four to go. The defence has proved watertight in the crucial run-in period and last night keeper Tim Deasy came into his own with three superb saves to keep the determined home side at bay...'' This incredible Barrow's run reminds me of Maidenhead's run in the Southern Premier league at the end of last season. They were total outsiders in the play-offs again, but managed to promote to Conf South. It was mainly 1:0 wins that got them through that's how Barrow are currently doing it too, 1:0, 2:0 and 2:1 are their usual wins. They're very disciplined and very well managed. Barrow have that important habit lately of winning even when they're not playing their best and the atmosphere there is great at the moment. I'd probably leave Barrow's match alone if they were playing away at play-off candidates or relegation candidates after all these great results, but 2.40 away at team with nothing to play for is too good to be true. Barrow's run will end, of course, and I wouldn't touch this match if odds were 2.10, but at least five units are a must in this case. Barrow have really been impressive lately, by all means. They were serious relegation candidates before they appointed their praised management duo, but look at them now. Shit, they've won their first away match on December 26th, it took them four and a half months. Now they have five wins and a draw at promotion candidates Nuneaton in the last six away matches and five wins in a row all together. They conceded just one goal in the last six matches, incredible. And it was 2:0 for Barrow at their place in February. Redditch had a Worcestershire Cup final match this Monday, it was the first leg, at Redditch, but they even lost that, it was 0:1 for the guests from Worcester (13th, just below Redditch on the league table, one point less), they never looked like scoring according to their fans, and if they want a good thing to remember this season by, they should focus on the second leg of that Cup final that's going to be played on Monday, just two days after this league match. I know I would rest some players if I were their manager, but obviously I'm not. Last Saturday, Redditch managed to win a league match, away at 9th Burscough who were without, well, first it was seven regulars, but then another two got injured before the second half (''...Burscough starting the match without seven first choice regulars, had the added problem of a forward line blunted by not having ace marksman Ciaran Kilheeney...'' ''...Things took a sudden turn for the worse during the half-time break. It became clear that both the industrious Moogan and left sided player Chris Robinson were unable to continue because of injury...'') and have been unmotivated and terrible lately as they don't have a chance for a play-off spot, but it certainly took a lot of effort maybe they're smarter now, maybe they'll take it a bit easier and save some strength for Monday. After all, they really have nothing to play for in the league, they're 12th, right in the middle of the table, 15 points from both play-off and relegation zone, four matches left this season, can't get relegated, can't get promoted. Where's the fun in that? What do Redditch's fans think? ''...If we play in the same manner as we did against Solihull then it will be an easy victory for Barrow. Even when we won against Burscough the match was dire by all accounts. We are in an unusual position... Having been safe from relegation for a few weeks but with nothing really to play for either. This really showed against Solihull when we finished the game with 2 full backs up front! I would therefore suggest this is a good time to play us. One thing for sure....We won't be scoring a hat full of goals...''. That's what I'm talking about too. Redditch have been very good at home, 10-4-5, but Barrow don't seem to care about those kinds of facts lately. After they became mathematically safe, Redditch lost a lot of that fighting spirit (0:0 at poor Solihull ''...It was a game that neither side deserved to win..'', 1:3 home defeat to 4th Harrogate I hope Barrow will be as determined as them, and then came that 2:0 win away at unmotivated Burscough and a 0:1 Cup final home defeats, so it's two home defeats in a row for Redditch), but also some fans' support attendance this Monday was terrible. This could be a draw, of course, but Barrow have a lot bigger chance for another big step towards the play-offs than the odds suggest... Did I happen to mention that Redditch have some injury worries too? ''...The Reds boss saw central defender Liam Murray limp off during Monday's Worcestershire Senior Cup final first leg clash with Worcester City to join influential stopper Exodus Geoghaghan on the sidelines. He also included Chris Murphy, Danny Edwards and Graham Deakin in his starting line-up even though the trio were all carrying knocks. 'We took Liam Murray off as a precaution but hope that his injury is nothing too serious'. Strike pair Carl Heggs and Scott Rickards were also rested for the cup match as they continued their recuperation but Whild admitted that fellow frontman Damien Markman could be on the way back possibly in Saturday's Blue Square North match with promotion-chasing Barrow at The Valley. 'We could do without such a tough game ahead of Monday's match at Worcester but we owe it to the other clubs at the top to give it our best. There will be a few teams up there hoping we can get something from the game'...''. Call me a sucker, but that doesn't sound very determined to me. (2.42 at 10Bet, 2.40 also at Betway, 888Sport and Bwin, 2.38 at StanJames, Bet365, BetDirect, Better, BoyleSports, Paddy Power, Skybet, only 2.20 at Stanleybet...) FT 0:5 RYMAN/CONF SOUTH DOUBLE: Leyton Margate 2 @1.25 & Basingstoke Lewes 2 @1.67 (2.0875 @StanJames) 5 units Leyton. Margate are 11th. They're good enough. Oh, you want details, don't you? Leyton's goal-difference in the last 18 matches (17 defeats and a lucky draw) is 10:73. Margate managed to beat Heybridge 5:4 last Saturday and they were solid in March, a couple of wins, a couple of draws... They're not play-off material, but they're good enough. Leyton are still without a couple of suspended players, Margate should win this with a big handicap. Basingstoke played good football in 2007, but 2008 has been dreadful to them. They're currently on a 12 matches winless streak, they're safe in the mid-table, nothing to play for, scored one goal in the last four matches. Their 0:0 draw at Bishop's Stortford was an incredibly boring match, Bishops simply failed to turn up and that 1:1 draw against Hayes was played under terrible conditions. It's time for another defeat, I'm afraid. Motivation is low, their temporary menager just said he won't be applying for the permanent job, so the players have no one to impress. Lewes will most probably be champions of Conf South and this match could be the final proof. They have only one point more than Eastbourne, but they played two matches less and are in much better form. 3:0 at Sutton, 3:1 at Cambridge and 3:2 at home vs Eastleigh are the last three Lewes' results (all wins) and Eastbourne's win at Weston came after three draws and a defeat in four matches. The league's second best scorer Booth is scoring again, Robinson and Simpemba also have their scoring shoes on lately and I think Lewes will show that they're different league at the moment. Lewes are the best away team in the league, they have seven wins, two draws and only one defeat in the last 10 away matches, they conceded only 19 goals in 19 away matches (no other team conceded less) and it was 4:0 for Lewes at their place in January. (2.08 also at BetDirect and Better, 2.06 at Primebet, 2.02 at Skybet, 2.01 at Bwin, 1.96 at Gamebookers, Bet365, Partybets...) FT 2:4 / 1:1 |
