8.4.2008. -4.01 units
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SOUTHERN PREMIER Mangotsfield Cirencester 1 (1.57 @StanJames) 7 units Not the greatest odds for a single bet, I know, but it's a good value bet nevertheless. Although they have three wins in a row, Mangotsfield are currently 15th and far from being safe, so they're motivated alright. They have four points more than 19th Corby down in the relegation zone and they need this win against a very beatable, poor opponent. Mangotsfield have 6-8-4 at home, but they conceded only 18 goals in 18 home matches this season only King's Lynn and Tiverton conceded less. They also have three handicap home wins in a row (2:0 Cheshunt, 4:2 Chippenham, 2:0 Corby okay, Cheshunt and Corby are strugglers, even though they're both better than Cirencester at the moment I suppose, but Chippenham are 4th and they're serious promotion candidates) and this Saturday they even managed to take some away points they won 2:1 at 9th Brackley who are a good outfit. Their best scorer Griffin scores regularly, he scored four goals in the last four matches (one goal in every match) and anything but a home win would be a big surprise here. After this match, Mangotsfield have another home match this Saturday, against another strugglers from Bedford, and if they win these two matches, they'll be safe. So yes, they're motivated alright. Cirencester, on the other hand, are already relegated they're 21st, second to bottom, but they have 12 points less than 20th Bromsgrove. They have 4-7-9 away from home, but they scored only 13 goals in 20 away matches no other team scored less (second worst are Hitchin who scored 18). Cirencester have seven defeats in a row, 13 defeats in the last 14 matches (it was 2:2 at 13th Tiverton a month ago the weather conditions were terrible and Cirencester scored an equaliser in the 93rd minute), they conceded 14 goals in the last four matches and I'm afraid they're going down. Mangotsfield shouldn't miss this chance and the odds should be 1.40 max. ''...Miracles in football rarely happen and it won't happen this time...''. Taken from the Cirencester's official website. I agree. (1.65 at Stanleybet, 1.57 also at Sportingbet, Skybet, BetDirect and Better, 1.55 at Bet-at-home, Digibet and Primebet...) FT 1:0 RYMAN PREMIER Heybridge Staines 2 (1.83 @StanJames) 4 units Heybridge are currently 19th, in the relegation zone, they're on a six-match winless run, they have two home defeats in a row (0:2 Ramsgate, 0:1 Hastings) and 8-5-5 at home this season. Two of those wins happened in January (strugglers Wealdstone and East Thurrock) and one of them happened in February (Heybridge's striker Savage had his sweet revenge and scored twice against promotion candidates Wimbledon who didn't want him earlier in the season), but the other five happened back in 2007. They lost 4:5 (!) at Margate this Saturday and if unmotivated Margate who are 11th and really can't get into play-offs managed to beat Heybridge, Staines who are a lot better team than Margate should crush them. Of course, this is football and things don't always happen the way we want them to happen that's why I'm not staking more than 4 units here. But, 1.83 is definitely too much, Staines should win this. Staines have five handicap wins in a row, after they lost to Chelmsford a month ago they really hit the right form (16:2 goal-difference in those five matches). They had a similar match last Tuesday, when they were playing at East Thurrock who have two points less than Heybridge. Staines won 3:1 and I expect them to get the job done this time too. They brought in a couple of good players just before the transfer deadline, they have league's best scorer Nwokeji upfront and I can see them finishing 2nd, above Wimbledon, and that would give them home advantage in the eventual play-off final match. They played two matchess less than all three teams between 4th and 6th and as much as three matches less than 2nd Wimbledon (who have six points more) and champions Chelmsford. I suppose they saved some strength this Saturday against Folkestone (won 2:0) at home they have three more midweek matches left (Heybridge, Folkestone, Boreham Wood), more than any other team, all away, all relegation candidates. I can see them winning all three of those matches, but if they do lose some points at these strugglers, I think it will more probably be at the end of April than now. I expected odds up to 1.60 so this is a must take. Heybridge players will be motivated, but also very tired after a very hard match and, after all, just another defeat (''...I have rarely if ever seen such a determined, dogged fightback to within a sliver of victory as I saw today. Every player gave every last ounce and wore their hearts on their sleeves for this club...''). Staines had a much easier match this Satuday, they decided to rest a couple of important players in the 2nd half (Nwokeji, for example) and they don't have to travel long for this match it's only an hour drive from Staines. It's not a banker, but the odds definitely shouldn't be higher than 1.60. Another long-term winner... (2.00 at Stanleybet, 1.83 also at Sportingbet, Coral, BetDirect and Better, 1.80 elsewhere...) FT 2:2 UNIBOND DOUBLE: Stamford Gateshead 2 @1.60 & Lincoln Fleetwood 2 @1.35 (2.16 @Bwin) 4 units Stamford are currently 18th, just above the relegation zone, but they're in terrible form, they only managed to beat mid-table Ossett this year (both home and away) and besides that, it's 4 draws and 8 defeats in 2008 for them. They were defeated by the very same Gateshead (a), Whitby (h), Worksop (h), Prescot (h), Eastwood (h), Kendal (a), Hednesford (h) and Fleetwood (a), and they managed to share points with Ashton (a), Frickley (a), Lincoln (h) and Guiseley (a). So yeah, their last home win happened on January 5th, it was 3:2 against Ossett, but just look at their results at home after that 1:3 Whitby, 0:2 Worksop, 0:2 Prescot, 0:3 Eastwood, 2:2 Lincoln, 0:2 Hednesford. All handicap defeats except that 2:2 draw with doomed, bottom-of-the-table Lincoln who are already relegated and have been the worst Unibond Premier team for a long time now, and none of these teams that comfortably defeated Stamford at their place are even in the play-off zone. Although Stamford have 6-5-7 this season at home, all those wins happened a long time ago lately they were better away than at home. Stamford are without their midfielder Gray who was very missed in the last few matches he's still suspended for this match, that's good to know. They also had some injury problems recently and their 'lack of firepower' upfront is the fans' favorite subject. I can see them winning away at Leek this upcoming Saturday, but not at home against high-flying Gateshead who are 3rd, but as Witton and Fleetwood lost a few points each in March, they're not that far behind (Fleetwood have six points more). They mathematically have a play-off spot already, but every little thing counts. They could play at home against Guiseley in the play-off semi-final, but they could also play away at Fleetwood, so it's important for them to keep winning and finish at least 3rd or even 2nd. They are great away from home, 10-4-3 this season, no other team scored as much as them away, no one is even close they scored 44 goals in 17 away matches, second best are Guiseley who scored 34. Gateshead have five handicap wins in a row (goal-difference 15:1), they won 5:1 at Marine this Saturday and they really seem unstoppable at the moment. It will be a bit harder against Buxton (both home and away) later this month, but this time they should do the job and win comfortably. Lincoln will be mathematically relegated if they lose this match, but they got relegated a long time ago. They're bottom of the table, 21st, with 10 points less than 19th North Ferriby (who are also in the relegation zone) and terrible goal-difference 40:73. They're also the worst home team in the league (2-4-11, 14:30), they have some injury problems as well and, after they won two matches in a row (both struggling teams and relegation candidates) in February/March, they now have five defeats and two draws. They shared points at home with Frickley and away at Stamford, both struggling teams and relegation candidates (this league is very tight this season, 10th Ilkeston have only five points more than 19th North Ferriby), but now they have three defeats in a row once again and not much hope left. They played against a couple of promotion candidates in 2008, let's see how that worked for them 1:5 away at Buxton, 0:2 at home to Guiseley, 0:2 away at Gateshead, 0:6 away at Witton. They need a miracle to get something from this match and miracles don't happen every day. Fleetwood are 2nd, but the title isn't lost yet oh how they proved that to be true away at leaders Witton a few weeks ago, when they won 3:0 and shocked Witton's fans. Witton now have only four points more, but Fleetwood played a match less and this is that match if Fleetwood manage to win (and they really have a perfect opponent this time), only one tiny point will seperate Witton from Fleetwood and then it's four matches left for both of these teams and also for Gateshead who aren't that far away. Fleetwood have been 2nd on the league table from November 17th, but I wouldn't be surprised if they finish 1st and promote to Conf North automatically after all. Fleetwood are the best away outfit in the league (11-3-3, 30:15), they have two handicap wins away from home in a row, four wins and a draw (at 15th Matlock who have been great at home in the last couple of weeks) in the last five away matches and they haven't been defeated in 9 matches (seven wins, two draws, they also shared points at home with promotion candidates Guiseley in March). I really can't see anything but an away win here and if you ask me, three teams only will fight for two Conf North places through the play-offs Fleetwood, Witton and Gateshead (Buxton, Guiseley and Eastwood will share two semi-final spots, but that's it for them, I'm afraid). It's football and I wouldn't be surprised if Fleetwood and Gateshead do promote to Conf North and Witton who were league leaders from day one fail to promote in the end. But, let's take it one step at the time, this should be a strong, handicap away win and this double looks very good indeed... (2.16 also at Primebet, 2.08 at Gamebookers, Coral and Skybet, 2.02 at StanJames, Bet365, Paddy Power, BetDirect and Better, only 1.80 at Stanleybet...) FT 1:1 / 0:3 |
