5.4.2008. -0.72 units
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CONF SOUTH Fisher Bognor Regis 2 (5.00 @Blue Square) 3 units & X (4.00 @BoyleSports) 2 units (ad-hoc draw-no-bet) With all the financial and squad problems at Fisher, this looks like the value bet of the weekend by far. Fisher could still get a play-off spot, but as much as their fans would love that to happen, I'm pretty sure it's not the club's priority at the moment. Cash injections at Fisher have been reduced by a significant margin, the club is looking for new investors, their best scorer Goulding went to Grays, solid back-up player Green went to Cambridge, their no1 keeper Overland is still injured (Knowles came from Grays on loan), there are rumours about players leaving all the time and this time Fisher will also be without defender Plumain and in-form winger Batt, both due to suspensions. They can do the job without Plumain, no doubt about that, but Batt has been amazing lately, he scored seven goals in the last eight matches. Tomlin and Thomas will probably play upfront, but they're not scoring much lately Tomlin scored once and Thomas scored twice in the last seven matches. If we take a look at Fisher's results in March, this bet will look even better. March began with a dissapointing 1:1 home draw vs poor Dorchester, then they lost away at Cambridge (2:3) and Eastbourne (0:4), after that they did manange to beat Bath at home (2:1), but then they lost at home to Hampton (0:3). Last Saturday, they won 2:0 at already relegated Sutton, but that's Sutton everybody beats them these days and Sutton was even a better team in the 2nd half, and that's according to Fisher's fans. Fisher aren't that good at home, they have 8-3-8 (negative goal-difference 30:35). They're currently 7th, but they're the only play-off candidates with a negative goal-difference and, if we take a look at their remaining fixtures, it's obvious it would be very hard for them to grab a play-off spot. After this match, they're playing against Thurrock at home and they look beatable alright, but after that, they'll be playing Lewes, Bishop's Stortford and Newport all away from home. Bognor lost their last season's best scorer Nightingale to Havant recently, but he wasn't that dangerous lately, he even lost his place in the first team in March Bognor have four other strikers and now is the time for them to show that they're Conference South material. Defensive midfielder Warner joined Bognor from Havant (Bognor's manager was after him for months and this will be his first match for Bognor) and they also brought in a very talented and skilfull winger Fogden from Brighton (where he even played for their first team), a couple of minutes before the transfer window closed btw, who could really make a difference in this match. Birmingham is back after being suspended and Pearson is back after his injury too. Bognor lost their last two matches, 0:1 away at Eastleigh and 0:2 at home to Newport, both motivated and rich promotion candidates, but they weren't without their chances in these matches they created plenty and it wouldn't be unfair if they took a point or two or three out of those two matches. Before that, they won at home against Weston (2:0) and away at Sutton (2:0), and shared points with Dorchester at home (0:0, they were missing almost half of the first team for that match) and Cambridge away (2:2). Bognor have 4-5-9 away from home, they're currently 17th, but they have only two points more than 20th Maidenhead down in the relegation zone, so they really need to get something from this match. They still have some tough matches left and this match should be a bit easier than Hampton away and even St Albans (in-form fellow strugglers) at home. Motivation should prove to be crucial here and Bognor should be able to score against a poor Fisher's defence that concedes a lot more than all the other teams in the top half especially at home, where only Sutton conceded more than Fisher (Fisher conceded 15 goals in 8 home matches in 2008). I can see Bognor keeping a clean sheet in this match their defence looks very solid now and if they manage to score, we should be alright here. Maybe this bet looks a bit mad to you, but it's all about odds really. 5.00? Now that's mad. You can ignore this bet if you want, after all it's not the only weekend bet, but I can't. Even if Fisher win with a handicap, I won't be sorry people who'll take 1.60 for a home win here are long-term suckers. A draw brings us +3 units profit and an away win brings us amazing +10 units profit here... A bet for the brave, no doubt about it... (5.00 for an away win also at 888Sport, 4.70 at Digibet, 4.68 at 10Bet, 4.60 at Stanleybet, Bwin, Nordicbet and Triobet, 4.50 at Bet365 and Skybet... 3.75 for a draw at StanJames, Paddy Power, Coral, BetDirect and Better...) FT 3:1 RYMAN/CONF SOUTH DOUBLE: Boreham Wood Leyton HT/FT 1 @1.44 & Havant Sutton HT/FT 1 @1.61 (2.3184 @Bet265) 4 units I think that, by now, you all know everything you need to know about Leyton. Their goal-difference in the last 17 matches (16 defeats and a lucky draw) is 10:70. 20th Carshalton beat them 4:1 last Saturday and that was away at Leyton. Boreham Wood are currently 16th, only three points more than second to bottom East Thurrock, so they're movitated alright. At home they have 8-3-7 (26:25), good enough. After a couple of defeats, they managed to beat play-off candidates Hendon 1:0 away from home this Tuesday that's a good sign. They also brought in a bunch of new players these days (''...Wood signed defenders Francis Duku, Mark Burgess and Craig Vargas, along with midfielders Gary Burrell, Fiston Manuella and Ryan Maxwell, and the move paid instant dividends with the majority of the new boys playing a part in a vital 1-0 win at play-off chasing Hendon in midweek...''). Leyton (who will be without three suspended players Gracey, Thomas and Tenner for this match) are usually at least two goals down by half-time and Boreham Wood will probably try to improve their goal-difference in this match. A similar match in the Conference South Havant are fighting for a play-off spot that is still very reachable (they're currently 11th, but they have only five points less than 5th Bishop's Stortford who played a match more) and they have quite a nice schedule this month all very beatable opponents. They're traditionally great at home (12-2-3 this season, they have 8 wins in the last 9 home matches they only lost to 5th Bishop's Stortford a month ago), but they didn't do well away from home in March and this is a must-win match. Havant brought in a bunch of new players recently, all good and experienced, and I expect a big home win this time. Sutton are already relegated (I think they will be mathematically relegated if they lose this match), they have 15 points less than 19th Weston just above the relegation zone. They lost their manager this week, one of their old ex-players with no managerial experience ('a good guy that loves the club' sort of guy) will be their caretaker manager untill the end of the season. Sutton have six defeats in a row (2:16 goal-difference), they're the worst away team in the league of course (2-5-11, 15:36) and they will be without their suspended midfielder Honey for this match and a couple of those absent-minded, currently hated by the fans. Sutton were losing before half-time in five out of those six defeats in March (the only exception was goal-shy Braintree away). It was 3:1 for Havant at Sutton in February. Surprises happen, yes, but I don't think we should be alright here. (Bookies are a bit smarter this time, so you can have this bet only at Bet365... You can combine two normal wins at some bookies, but those odds are very low, so it's Bet365 this time... Stanleybet users can do something else instead bet on OVER 3.5 in the Havant Sutton match, because Blue Square and 888Sport decided to ignore that option for this match only. Pinnacle users can take their asian handicaps anything up to (-1.75) for both home teams sounds good to me, so that's a pretty good alternative here...) FT 1:0 HT 3:0 FT / 1:0 HT 2:0 FT CONF SOUTH DOUBLE: Bishop's Stortford Basingstoke 1 @1.55 & Hampton Dorchester 1 @1.45 (2.2475 @Sportingbet) 4 units Bishop's Stortford are fighting for a play-off spot, they're currently 5th, they have 9-4-5 (41:29) at home, but they're one of the in-form teams in Conf South they've won three times and shared points twice (both away) in the last five matches. At home, they have six wins, a draw and a defeat in the last eight matches, they managed to grab a very important point away at Eastleigh last Saturday and if we take a look at their remaining fixtures, it seems that Bishops will grab that wanted play-off spot and then, who knows what can happen. They have a good squad, they're motivated alright, their best scorer Pearson is a constant threat upfront and I really think they will have too much for unmotivated Basingstoke who are 15th, safe in the mid-table and on an 11 matches winless streak. You know all about them, they're without a proper manager, they lost a couple of very important players (and board members) and away from home they have 4-6-9 (18:38). They have three away defeats in a row, they score very rarely and although they did manage to share points with Hayes at home last Saturday, Hayes were a lot better than Basingstoke, and that's according to Basingstoke fans, but terrible weather helped the hosts to grab a point. It was 2:1 for Bishops at Basingstoke earlier this season and 3:1 for Bishops at their place last season. I expect a similar result, probably a handicap win for the home team. Hampton are 4th, but they played less matches than Eastleigh and Bishop's Stortford and a play-off spot looks very realistic at the moment it surely would be a great success for a team that came from Ryman Premier this season. Hampton have 7-7-3 at home (35:22), but they usually get the job done against poor teams like Dorchester they're a strong, physical and motivated side. It's definitely time for a Hampton's home win, they have three draws and a defeat in the last four home matches. But, it seems that Hampton are hitting form in just the right time they have three handicap wins and clean sheets in a row (3:0 at home vs Hendon in the Middlesex Cup final, 3:0 at Fisher and 2:0 at Bromley, both in the league), they have a couple of very dangerous strikers upfront and they should have more than enough for poor Dorchester who are second to bottom, with seven points less and two matches more than 19th Weston (just above the relegation zone). Dorchester have 2-6-10 away from home, they have three draws and four defeats in the last seven away matches (draws happened at Cambridge, Fisher and Bognor, all worse teams than Hampton at the moment, so that's okay) and although they did manage to grab an injury-time winner at home against Maidenhead, Hampton's individual quality should prove to be crucial. It was 1:0 for Hampton at Dorchester earlier in the season and 5:2 for Hampton at their place in the Setanta Shield Cup. (2.24 also at Expekt, 2.18 at 10Bet, 2.15 at Bet365, 2.10 at Bet-at-home, Blue Square, Bwin, Gamebookers, Stanleybet...) FT 0:0 / 4:0 CONF NORTH Barrow Alfreton 1 (1.75 @Expekt) 4 units Barrow are currently 7th, but they've been amazing lately and I wouldn't be surprised if they manage to grab that play-off spot after all. They have six points less than 5th Nuneaton, but they played two matches less and if we take a look at their current form... Well, it's amazing six wins and an away draw at Nuneaton in the last seven matches. At home they have three wins in a row, 10-3-4 this season (34:16), and Alfreton look like the perfect opponent at the moment. Alfreton are 15th, they're mathematically safe, they only managed to beat poor Vauxhall in March and that was at home (they lost away at Nuneaton, Stalybridge and even at poor Leigh RMI, and shared points away at mid-table Worcester and at home with struggling Solihull), so the motivation is definitely better at Barrow. Away from home they have 5-6-8 (21:25), they did manage to beat 16th Workington away from home this Tuesday, but they scored a winner in the third minute of stoppage-time and Workington are in a similar position basically nothing to play for. With that win Alfreton secured their Conf North status and now when they did that, Barrow's determination and motivation should prove to be crucial. Barrow's management duo really did a great job in the 2nd half of the season. All good runs must end, but I don't think Barrow's good run will end like this, at home against Alfreton. Had to take this bet because odds shouldn't be higher than 1.55 here... (1.75 also at Betway, 1.67 at StanJames and Bet365, 1.65 at Bet-at-home, Betsafe, Nordicbet, Sportingbet, Triobet, only 1.57 at Stanleybet...) FT 2:1 |
