1.4.2008. -5 units
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CONF SOUTH Dorchester Maidenhead 2 (2.60 @Blue Square) 5 units Dorchester had a terrible season. Okay, they went 'full time', or 'professional', but I guess that wasn't the ideal motivation for their players who only managed to win five times (three times at home) this season (5-10-21). They're second to bottom, they have 9 points less than Maidenhead, they're traditionally terrible at home (3-4-11, 14:31 this season, 6-2-13 last season), they know that they're going down, their hated chairman already told the media that relegation wouldn't be the end of the world. In fact, here are some recent thoughts from the club: ''...If you were a betting man then no points from our next two games would realistically be it for us but we won't go into the games thinking like that...''. Oh, so they're not thinking like that, right. That was before Saturday, when they lost 0:1 to ten-men Thurrock who are a terrible away team btw and had a player sent off as early as in the 31st minute, but still managed to win 1:0 at poor Dorchester and create plenty of chances just in case. I am a betting man, I suppose, but value is what lures me in this case. Odds on Maidenhead shouldn't be bigger than 2.20 in my opinion and that's why I'm taking this bet a draw is also possible here, it won't be an easy win (even if it's going to a handicap win). But, Dorchester scored only one goal in the last six home matches they lost to St Albans, Eastbourne, Bishop's Stortford and Thurrock, shared a goalless draw with bottom-of-the-table Sutton and somehow managed to beat managerless Basingstoke who also haven't won a match in the last eleven. Maidenhead's recent results are just as bad as Dorchester's, you're right five defeats in a row, only one goal scored in the last four, they slipped all the way down to the relegation zone, currently 20th (8-10-18), lost 0:1 to Welling this Saturday (they were a better team though, according to some neutral match reports, just couldn't find the way to the net again). Yeah, true, but I still think they'll be alright. They have to win this match, they're playing away at very beatable Weston on Satuday, and if they take these six points (and I really think they could), they will be safe (and it would be their greatest result of the post-war era, hooray). Maidenhead are the worst home team in the league, that's right too, they won just once at home this season (who did they beat? Yep, Dorchester, a fine 3:1 win for Maidenhead in December), but away from home they're doing quite alright (7-5-5, 26:22). They have 4-1-2 in the last seven away matches (wins at Thurrock, Hayes, St Albans and Bognor, draw at Bromley, defeats at high-flying Eastleigh and improved Cambridge), they have a great scorer in Williams (scored 19 league goals this season, btw he scored his only hat-trick against Dorchester, and he's currently 5th best league's scorer) and just brought in another great striker, Pacquette from Havant & Waterloovile (13 goals this season all together, including that historic goal for Havant's shocking 1:0 lead away at Liverpool in the FA Cup). Williams & Pacquette upfront should have more than enough for poor Dorchester's defence that conceded 31 goal in 18 home matches this season. Even if Dorchester somehow manage to score, I think Maidenhead can always score two or three at Dorchester, especially now with Pacquette in the team. Experienced defender Cooper is fit and is going to be in the team after being out injured for a couple of weeks too. This match was already played a couple of weeks ago, under terrible weather conditions, but it was abandoned in the 86th minute the result was 1:1, but now when Maidenhead are in the relegation zone, they'll be a lot more motivated, that's a fact. If you want to be extra-careful, you can always stake two units on a draw and Pinnacle and 10Bet both offer very reasonable DNB's, but I'm throwing away my careful shoes for this bet and going for a straight away win. (2.60 also at 888Sport, 2.55 at Betway, 2.50 at StanJames, BetDirect, Better, Boyle Sports, Bwin and Bet24, 2.45 at 10Bet, Bet-at-home, Expekt, Nordicbet, Primebet and Triobet, only 2.40 at Stanleybet... 1.93 at Pinnacle and 1.91 at 10Bet for a DRAW NO BET...) FT 2:1 |
