22.3.2008. +9.27 units
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RYMAN DOUBLE: Billericay Carshalton 1 @1.70 & Leyton Ramsgate 2 @1.40 (2.38 @Sportingbet) 4 units Billericay are still struggling away from home (three defeats in a row), but at home it's something completely different they have five wins and three draws in the last eight home matches and that's not only this current season I'm talking about they're traditionally great at home. Billericay lost 1:2 at Ramsgate last Saturday, but Ramsgate are still very serious play-off candidates, and those home draws also happened against very tough opponents and in-form teams Wimbledon, Harrow and Ashford. Billericay are currently 9th, but they have only four points less than 5th Hornchurch and their play-off dreams are very much alive. If they win their four remaining home matches and an away match at Harlow this Monday, I think they'll grab that play-off spot and then, who knows what can happen next. And when their most dangerous scorer Flack returns after a long injury, maybe they even make things a bit more complicated for Wimbledon. All in all, this is a match they have to win and that's why their management duo rested all the first team players for their Essex Thames-side Trophy quarter-final match at Brimsdown Rovers. That they lost of course. Carshalton are currently 20th, deep down in the relegation zone, but they're not doomed they have four points less than 14th Harlow for instance. They could be alright, but I doubt they can do something away at Billericay. They have some serious selection problems, they will be without three suspended players defender Gonsalves, midfielders Watts and Austin, but that's not all. ''...King is making progress as he recovers from a broken leg, and has returned to light training, joining the group sessions for the first time since his operation...Quinton will see a consultant this week and is expected to have a scan on his persistent hip injury...Stevens's torn stomach muscles are improving but he is still some way from full fitness...Plummer broke down in training during the week and is likely to be out for several weeks...''. Evans and Fontana were both unavailable for the last match, they even lost their assistant manager and a physio these days and I think no other Ryman Premier team used so many players this season. Players have been coming and going all the time, they still are, but that's just one of the Billericay's advantages in this match. Away from home, they have three defeats and a shock win at Ramsgate in the last four, but I really think they will have to search for points elsewhere against Leyton, Wealdstone, Hastings, Ashford, Boreham Wood and Tonbridge, all beatable opponents. Billericay away and Wimbledon at home in the next few days should be two missions impossible for Carshalton at the moment. After all, Carshalton picked up only one point at home against two very beatable opponents, two struggling teams (1:2 Folkestone, 1:1 Heybridge) in March and their away form (5-0-11, 20:34) is nothing to be afraid of. Ramsgate aren't the best away team in the league (4-5-8), but they're still serious play-off candidates, currently 8th, but with only three points less than 5th Hornchurch. Poor Leyton kids are trying their best lately, but they still have 9:57 goal-difference in the last 15 matches (14 defeats and one lucky draw) and have been relegated a long time ago. Maybe they manage to grab another point or two untill the end of the season, but if they do, that will happened against a team that has nothing to play for. Ramsgate still want that play-off spot, they did have a couple of draws and even defeats in 2008, but now they have two nice wins in a row, away at Heybridge and at home against Billericay, Vahid scored three goals in those two matches and if they take this match seriously (and I'm sure they will), this should be a strong handicap win. They will be without Wilkerson due to his suspension, but they won their last two matches without him so that shouldn't be that big a problem. Leyton are also missing a couple of their youngsters and after losing 1:5 to Staines, I'm afraid another big defeat is waiting for them... ''...With these young players, and a bit more experience, we hope to be challenging next season to get this football club back to where it belongs...'', Leyton's manager said a couple of days ago. (2.30 at StanJames, BetDirect and Better, 2.29 at Bwin, 2.22 at Gamebookers, 2.20 at Bet365...) FT 4:2 / 0:3 CONF NORTH Workington Vauxhall Motors 1 (1.75 @Sportingbet) 5 units I suppose it looks like fair odds at first glance, 16th Workington against 21st Vauxhall Motors, both poor teams, Workington with two defeats, win and a draw in March; Vauxhall with three defeats and a win, yeah, fair odds, no value, no bet. Not so much if you ask me. Workington have shown much more in the last month or so, they were very unlucky to lose both to Boston (0:1) and Gainsborough (1:2) at home, but their handicap home win against play-off candidates (2:0) Hyde last Tuesday proved they still have something to play for. Well of course they have they want to stay in the league and they're still not safe, they still have to win a couple of matches (they have 10 points more than 20th Hinckley down in the relegation zone Workington played two matches less than both 20th Hinckley and 21st Vauxhall though, Vauxhall have a point less than Hinckley btw). Last Saturday they had another home match, against 20th Hinckley it ended 1:1, but Workington were pretty unlucky once again (''...We should have been 4 up at half time we missed one on ones, headers, open goals the lot. Matt Berkeley was one about to go one on one with the keeper when the Hinckley centre half clipped him from behind and the ref waved play on shocking it was a certain red...Hinkley were allowed to just bluster their way through 90mins with little punishment. They resembled a Rugby team for most of the game...Our lads were not given the chance to play football and were forced to contend with the bullying tactics...''), but they were a better team throughout the match and Vauxhall should allow them more football than Hinckley Workington won their three previous encounters (5:2 at Vauxhall earlier this season, 2:0 at home and 2:1 away last season). I know 6-3-6 at home (21 goal scored, but only 15 goals conceded only four teams conceded less than them at home) for Workington doesn't look that great, but it looks a lot better than Vauxhall's away form. And that's 2-2-14 (terrible goal-difference 14:47, the worst away goal-difference in the league by far). Yeah, Vauxhall are that terrible away from home. They managed to beat mid-table, unmotivated Boston last Tuesday (1:0), but that's their only scored goal in the last five matches (goal-difference 1:13 in the four matches in May so far) and Workington will be a lot more motivated than Boston who can't get relegated and can't get into play-offs. But Vauxhall's squad problems are the most important fact here they will be without three suspended players and one of them is their by far the best player, striker Taylor who has been a target for lots of bigger clubs for quite some time now and he'll probably leave Vauxhall at the end of the season. Without him, Vauxhall are a very modest side and this time, they will also be without experienced defender Maddox (who was also missing last Saturday, when they lost 0:3 at home to mid-table Gainsborough) and midfielder Field who was one of the best Vauxhall's players last Saturday. Along with ever so dangerous Taylor of course. What else to say about a team that has five defeats and a lucky, boring 1:0 home win over unmotivated Boston (they scored in the 85th minute, Taylor assisted, one of the biggest shock results of the season) in the last six matches? They managed to beat poor Blyth in October and even poorer Hinckley in January, and share points at 8th Burscough back in August and at poor Solihull in February and that's their only four positive results away from home other than those eight points won away, it's all defeats 14 of them. So yes, value is here, let's grab it while it's still there... (1.75 also at Expekt and Betway, 1.73 at Stanleybet, StanJames, Gamebookers, Bet365...) FT 1:0 |
