15.3.2008. -1.25 unit
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CONF SOUTH Basingstoke Braintree 2 (2.25 @Bet365) 5 units What happened at Basingstoke in the last couple of days, you ask? Well, we were there this Saturday to bet against them, won +8 units as they lost 1:4 at struggling St Albans, fans were very clear about wanting manager out before the end of the season and, voila, it happened. Vines (manager) left ('...With a manager who has resigned how could of the outcome been anything but a St Albans win, how can he motivate his players when he doesn't seem to have anything to play for....'), his assistant Richardson has been made temporary manager and Basingstoke finally managed to win a match this Tuesday. It was only a Hampshire Cup semi-final match though, against Fleet Town who are currently fighting for a play-off spot in Southern South & West league (two leagues below Conference South) Basingstoke were at full strength of course, because this cup is all that's left to play for in the league they're stuck in the middle of the table, can't get relegated, can't get into play-offs. There are a couple of objective comments on fans' forums '...Easy win for Basingstoke tonight against a poor Fleet team...BTFC looked good because they were playing poor opposition, even I look good when we play a team from the division below us in the cup on Sunday!...The midfield were not at the races tonight with Warner, Wells and Hamilton out of sorts against some good players in Fleets Number 4 and Number 10...Charles kept going despite not being at his best...'. I appreciate Richardson's efforts, but it takes time to get back on track and at the moment, it's probably best to try out some younger players and start building a squad for next season. Basingstoke are currently 15th, but they have 15 points more than 20th St Albans, so they're safe alright. You already know they lost a couple of players recently, including their no1 goalkeeper, and if we look at their last seven league matches, we can see five defeats (0:6 at Eastbourne, 1:5 at home to Fisher, 2:3 at home to Havant, 0:3 at Cambridge and 1:4 at St Albans) and two draws (2:2 at Hampton, 1:1 at home with Bromley). So yes, in their last three home matches, they have two defeats, to Fisher and Havant, and a draw with an on/off Bromley outfit. Their goalkeeper against Braintree should be young Fejullah who played for reserves untill now. Braintree have 5-5-6 away from home this season, but that doesn't mean much in these circumstances. They're currently 8th, but they have only two points less than 5th Newport and play-off spot isn't a mission impossible. They were magnificent this Tuesday, they trashed Lewes, league leaders at the time (now they're 2nd because of the goal-difference), 3:0, pressed hard and dominated through the whole match that was their third win in a row and also a third clean sheet in a row (and also fifth clean sheet at home in a row)! Okay, Weston (4:0) and Sutton (1:0) aren't the best teams in Conf South (they're probably better than Basingstoke at the moment though), but Lewes (3:0) probably are the best team in this league. Okay, those were all home wins, but Braintree did manage to win away at Weston, Welling, Sutton, Maidenhead and Bishop's Stortford this season and at the moment, all those teams are probably better and more motivated than Basingstoke. New signing, striker Jolly who came from Wimbledon, scored twice in the last three matches ('...The best forward we have seen at Cressing road for the past two years...'), just like Quinton this time it could be Sullivan, their best scorer who only scored once in 2008 and Basingstoke could be the perfect opponent for him to get back on track. Lewes' fans wrote this after their team lost 0:3 at Braintree: '...The (Braintree's) tactics seem to be press, press, press, press. Run your nuts off. Outwork them. Get in their faces. Don't give anyone any time on the ball...'. Well, if nothing else, this shows that Braintree are very determined and motivated at the moment and that should really prove to be crucial in this match. Basingstoke players really have nothing to play for Braintree, on the other hand, want a play-off spot. They were 3rd last season, failed to promote and spent the majority of this season at the wrong side of the table. Now when play-off spot isn't that far away, they must take their recent great form away from home. They really do have a perfect opponent this time it would be harder for them to play at St Albans, Sutton or Dorchester, struggling teams that simply have to win if they want to stay in Conf South. Btw, Braintree won all of their recent encounters with Basingstoke (2:1 away and 1:0 at home last season, 2:1 at home this season)... (2.40 at Stanleybet, 2.20 at Gamebookers, Sportingbet, Blue Square, Betway, Bet-at-home, PartyBets...) FT 2:2 CONF SOUTH Eastleigh Hayes & Yeading OVER 3.5 (2.75 @Blue Square) 5 units I saw most of the Hayes' match highlights this season and I can tell you, they literally attack all the time. They have great strikers in Palmer, Knight and especially Josh Scott and I've waited a long time for their away match at another attractive, attacking team that has a lot to play for, Eastleigh. I expect at least 10 to 15 shots on Eastleigh's goal from Hayes, but I also expect them (Hayes) to concede a lot. Hayes are currently 14th, they're safe, can't get relegated, can't get into play-offs. They scored more goals than all the other mid-table teams, but their defence isn't as good as the attack that's why they conceded a lot too. Away from home, only a couple of teams conceded more than Hayes. If we look at Hayes' last 10 league matches, we can see that one match produced only two goals (0:2 defeat at mid-table Thurrock), two matches produced three goals (two home wins 2:1 vs struggling St Albans in January and 3:0 vs an extreme UNDER team, Bath City, two weeks ago) all the other matches (seven of them) produced between four and as much as seven goals. Newport outclassed them last Saturday, sure, and I'm pretty confident Eastleigh will take all the points here too, but odds on OVER 3.5 are much, much better than the odds on a home win. You know how much I love value. Well, my odds on OVER 3.5 wouldn' be bigger than 2.10 for this match massive value indeed. Let's take a look at all the Hayes away matches in the last tow months, shall we? 1:3 defeat at Weston, 4:1 win at Cambridge, 2:4 defeat at Fisher and, finally, 0:2 defeat at mid-table, unmotivated Thurrock who are also a typical UNDER team lately. Eastleigh should score plenty here. Eastleigh, on the other hand, seem very determined to grab one of the play-off spots this season. They're currently 3rd, they have three wins in a row, they scored 13 goals in the last 4 matches and at home, they have 8-4-4 (30:23). No other play-off candidate conceded more at home. Four out of their last five home matches produced at least four goals the only exception was a 1:1 draw with struggling St Albans back in January. It was 4:4 vs Bath, 3:1 vs Dorchester, 3:1 vs Welling and 3:2 vs Maidenhead. I really think Hayes have much more dangerous strikers than all these mentioned teams and Eastleigh should concede at least one or two goals here. After all, they will be without two standard players due to their suspensions striker Brown (who doesn't play much and doesn't score much, so that's not a problem) and defender Byles (who is a regular part of the back four lately, so that is a problem for Eastleigh). Last Saturday, Eastleigh trashed Maidenhead away from home it was 5:0 and after being without a goal for a couple of weeks, Eastleigh's best scorer Forbes scored twice. But, he's not the only one who can score Sales scored three goals in the last two matches, new striker McBean scored three in his first four matches for Eastleigh (he came from Sutton in February) and their star winger Marshall scores from time to time too, just like some other midfielders and even defenders. Another new signing is midfielder Murray who came from Grays, also in February he also scored a goal last Saturday. But that's not all there were another two new arrivals at Eastleigh goalkeeper Matthews and defender Vickers both came from Weymouth ten days ago too. So yes, if you ask me, Eastleigh will definitely grab a play-off spot and they have solid chances for a place in Conference National next season. But first, they have to beat Hayes they already did that once this season, it was 4:2 for Eastleigh at Hayes in November and I expect a similar result this time too. Of course, I'd be satisfied with four goals too... (2.69 for OVER 3.5 at Stanleybet, 1.81 for OVER 2.75 at Pinnacle...) FT 1:4 SOUTHERN PREMIER Bromsgrove King's Lynn 2 (1.80 @Sportingbet) 5 units King's Lynn are currently 2nd, but they're still the biggest candidates for the title. Current league leaders Halesowen played as much as three matches more and have only one point more and 3rd Team Bath, who played 32 matches so far just like King's Lynn have 63 points, just like King's Lynn, but they've been awful lately and they have a much lousier goal-difference than the Linnets. King's Lynn are also one of the best away teams in the league and they're on a great run haven't lost a league match from January 5th (five wins and five draws). Their last away match was a magnificent 4:0 win at Team Bath two weeks ago and their last home match was an even more magnificent 5:0 win against Yate last Saturday. After King's Lynn brought in two new defenders, Bains from Tamworth and Hoyte from Cambridge, the Linnets conceded only one goal (1:1 at home vs league leaders Halesowen three weeks ago, 4:0 away at Team Bath, 0:0 at home vs Hitchin, 5:0 at home vs Yate). Francis scored five goals in the last five matches and should score at Bromsgrove too. 'The title situation is in our hands now. But we want to stress to the players how important the next two away games are', King's Lynn manager said after trashing Yate. I fully agree with him. Bromsgrove are currently 14th, but I have a feeling they'll have to fight to stay in Southern Premier only Rugby and Tiverton played more matches than Bromsgrove. They're not very good at home (5-7-5, 20:22), they've won only once in the last seven matches and have some serious problems with forwards. From the fans' forum: '...Rovers are really right back in the relegation mix now. With matches against Kings Lynn and Bashley coming up we could be in an even worse position within a couple of weeks. With now 2 goals in 7 games it's not difficult to see where the problem is at present...I can`t honestly see us getting anything from Kings Lynn on Saturday...'. Bromsgrove did bring in striker Robinson and attacking midfielder Cowley recently, but both of them left the club last week. '...Just what we want as we approach the most critical part of the season - a team of strangers with most of them not knowing each others style of play...'. They have some injury doubts too, even their physio left them ('... I felt that players weren't getting back quickly enough from injuries. We had a few words and decided we just couldn't work together....', Bromsgrove's manager said yesterday) and their only win in the last seven matches happened against Clevedon (1:0), a mid-table team that has nothing to play for ('...It was an ugly win but at this moment in time we will take that...'). Bromsgrove's last home match was a boring 0:0 draw with another unmotivated mid-table team, Swindon ('...A dour, disappointing game of very few chances for a low crowd of 338 saw a fair result in the end...For the third consecutive match we failed to make much impact upfront...'), and their last away match was a 0:3 defeat at 8th Brackley last Saturday. Cowley was by far the best Bromsgrove's player at Brackley, but now he's gone. Bromsgrove did manage to bring in Solihull Moors's striker McPhee this week, but this guy had a hip operation in October and he's still not 100% fit. As Brosmgrove have no other choice, he will be their first choice striker against King's Lynn. Surprises happen, sure, but I still think this is going to be a strong away win... (1.80 also at Stanleybet, 1.78 currently at Pinnacle, 1.75 at Bwin, 1.73 at StanJames, Bet365 and Skybet...) FT 1:1 |
