8.3.2008. +11.4 units
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CONF SOUTH St Albans Basingstoke 1 (3.50 @Skybet) 4 units & X (3.60 @Skybet) 2 units (ad-hoc draw-no-bet) Another improvised DNB, but this time with some really huge value. If St Albans manage to win, we'll make +8 units profit and in case of a draw, we'll make +1.2 unit. Once again, bookmakers look at the stats and stats only, I wonder if they know what happened at Basingstoke these days at all. What happened, you ask? Well, their manager finally resigned, but he'll stay at the helm untill the end of the season. Fans aren't happy with that they want him out now, not at the end of the season. Another couple of board members left too and all non-contract players have been released. That's Whisken, Watkins (two standard players who left before Saturday) and Tardiff (who was the only senior goalkeeper and it's still not known who will be no1 this upcoming Saturday for Basingstoke). No suspensions this time for Basingstoke, but they still have some injury problems, players have no one to impress as Vines (the manager) is leaving, the rumour is that all but a couple of players will leave Basingstoke and go to Farnborough (two leagues below, but no financial and managerial problems), so these odds are from a fairytale really. Basingstoke have four defeats and two draws in the last six, they lost 0:3 at 15th Cambridge this Saturday, away from home they have one win in the last seven matches and that's at Maidenhead who have 1-5-10 at home. Basingstoke are currently 13th, they can't get relegated, they can't get into play-offs, so no motivation really. But, these is Conference South, and that's why I'm improvising this DRAW NO BET even a draw brings us some profit. St Albans are currently 20th, down in the relegation zone, but they have the best chance for survival out of three bottom clubs (St Albans have two points more than Dorchester and three points more than Sutton). They managed to win 3:0 away at 18th Weston (who are still fighting for survival, so they're motivated alright) this Saturday and were very unlucky to narrowly lose 1:2 at home both to 8th Bishop's Stortford and 6th Bath City in February. Their 0:0 home draw with 7th Newport (also in February) showed us that they still have some hope and strength left and this 3:0 win at Weston must've showed them that they can do it (stay in the league, I mean). Bishop's Stortford, Bath and Newport are all fighting for a play-off spot Basingstoke have nothing to fight for. St Albans also brought in their old, experienced goalkeeper Bastock and he managed to keep a clean sheet against Weston, so that's good to know too. Their standard midfielder Thurlbourne will play his last match before going back to his club (he was at St Albans on loan), Quilter is suspended but they did fine without him at Weston and all the fans agree it's now or never. They have to win this match if they want to stay in Conf South, but it won't be easy. I can see a draw here if St Albans make another stupid mistake or two in defence or something like that, but I just can't see a Basingstoke win. 6 units staked all together though, because nobody knows what can happen untill Saturday, but these odds look to good not to take this bet right now... (3.05 for home win at Betway, 3.00 at StanJames, 2.84 at 10Bet, 2.80 at Bwin and Bet-at-home, only 2.60 at Stanleybet... 3.60 for a draw at Stanleybet, Skybet and Bet365...) FT 4:1 CONF SOUTH Havant & Waterloovile Bishop's Stortford 1 (1.91 @Coral) 5 units Once again I'm taking FA Cup heroes Havant to win and get even closer to the play-off zone. They're currently 10th, but they played as much as four matches less than 5th Fisher who only have five points more. Havant are playing incredible lately they have six wins in the last seven matches and at home they have seven wins in a row (first of that seven was a win over Fisher in mid-November). They're traditionally great at home this season they're the best home team in the league (11-2-2). Baptiste is finally getting into that last season's form he scored three goals in the last two matches but other guys score a lot for Havant too lately. Their goal-difference in the last three matches is 8:1 impressive. If you ask me, Havant will grab a play-off spot they want it alright, they brought in a couple of new players (something that they can finally afford after that lucrative FA Cup run), they even started winning away from home. At home, they're favorites even against a lot better teams than Bishop's Stortford. Bishop's Stortford are currently 8th, they have three points more than Havant at the moment, but they played three matches more. Honestly, I don't think they will grab that play-off spot they have some very tough matches left and their current form is very poor. They won only once in the last five matches. After they managed to beat two strugglers, 17th Bognor and 21st Dorchester in February, they lost at league leaders Lewes and direct rivals, 7th Newport, only shared points at home with another strugglers, 18th Weston, managed to win away at another strugglers, 20th St Albans and this Tuesday they lost at home to another strugglers, 19th Welling. Not looking good Havant are a much, much better team than all these poor bottom boys. In the last 8 away matches, they have three wins (but only at 22nd Sutton, 21st Dorchester and 20th St Albans) and five defeats (0:4 at Bath, 1:2 at Braintree, 0:1 at Thurrock, 0:1 at Lewes, 0:1 at Newport) and this time they will miss two standard players, defender Stanbrook and striker Essandoah, due to their suspensions. Another two strikers, Harris and Gaisie, are both struggling with injuries so Bishop's manager had to bring in Yao who was fired at Cheltenham but he was at the bench in both matches after his arrival I guess he was fired with a reason. Fans are also not very satisfied with their goalkeeper Young lately and some of them think it all went wrong after Midson left the club in January. I suppose they're right. The only player Havant should keep an eye on is Bishops' best striker Pearson, the league's leading scorer, but I suppose Havant know all about him. It was 4:1 for Bishop's Stortford at their place in January, but that was just after Havant's draw at Swansea in the FA Cup and Havant were without both Pacquette and Baptiste, their best scorers. We were there to bet on Bishop's then and now we're betting on Havant at great odds that shouldn't be bigger than 1.73 if you ask me... (1.90 at Bet-at-home, Betway and Bwin, 1.88 at 10Bet, 1.83 at StanJames and Bet365, only 1.73 at Stanleybet...) FT 1:2 RYMAN PREMIER Hendon Wimbledon 2 (2.10 @StanJames) 4 units Hendon are currently 3rd, but that's only because of their incredible start of the season they were league leaders for quite some time, but even their manager was always very honest when talking about their chances for the title (and automatic promotion to Conf South). Hendon is a small club, their budget is one of the smallest in the league and they have no choice but sell their best players when someone is interested. That's why they had to sell their best striker O'Sullivan to Stevenage in January and that's when all went downhill for Hendon. Starting from New Year's Day, they lost six matches in a row, then managed to share points at home to Margate two weeks ago and then finally won a match, away at Horsham last Saturday they scored a winner in the 90th minute though so it wasn't an easy win. They have four draws and one defeat in the last five home matches, but Wimbledon are a much better team than all the other teams Hendon played against lately and although this match could end with a draw, I simply have to take this bet the odds shouldn't be bigger than 1.80 if you ask me. Hendon lost another couple of players lately Massey returned to Wycombe and Collins returned to MK Dons they were both loaned to Hendon. Midfielder O'Leary returned to Hendon from Wealdstone, but he's their only 'signing' in months. Wimbledon are still flying high yes, they lost away at Heybridge two weeks ago, but that has to happen from time to time. You can't win them all and Heybridge were great in that match (Heybridge's new signing, striker Savage, was fired at Wimbledon earlier in the season so he was motivated alright and scored both goals for Heybridge). But, Wimbledon still have six wins in the last seven matches after that narrow defeat at Heybridge, they managed to beat Margate and Hastings (4:0 last Saturday). Wimbledon are currently 2nd and although it will be hard to catch the league leaders Chelmsford, it's still possible Chelmsford are playing against very good Staines outfit this Saturday and they will be without Holmes who is suspended. If they lose and Wimbledon win this match, the Dons will have only 5 points less. Their standard defender Howard played his last home match for Wimbledon last Satuday, but he's still here (he's going to America soon, he got a job as a coach... Well, it's a long story). Wimbledon also brought in very good attacking midfielder Potter from Peterborough earlier this season he was loaned to Havant and scored at Anfield for the 2:1 lead against mighty Liverpool in the FA Cup, so that really is a great signing for the Dons. He was also the man of the match last Saturday (4:0 win over Hastings). Hatton's suspension is served, Shroot is back from his loan and is playing better and better... Wimbledon's squad is looking very good at the moment and I'm pretty confident we'll see them in Conference South next season. (2.10 also at Bwin, Bet-at-home and Skybet, 2.00 elsewhere including Stanleybet, 1.97 currently at Pinnacle for (-0.25)...) FT 0:2 RYMAN/SOUTHERN DOUBLE: Tonbridge Leyton 1 @1.25 & Cirencester Halesowen 2 @1.60 (2.00@Sportingbet) 4 units Tonbridge have been in great form lately just because of the poor start of the season are they only 12th on the league table (only seven points less than 5th Horsham though). But, Ryman Premier is very tough league this season, any team can really beat any other team well, except for Leyton obviously. Tonbridge started winning in November (five wins in all competitions and one draw), lost only two matches (both away) in December, and in 2008 they have 4-1-2. At home though, they're still much better than away (lost only three home matches this season two of those home defeats happened in the first couple of weeks at the start of the season, a long time ago, and the 3rd defeat was to play-off candidates Horsham on Boxing Day, December 26th the worse day for betting). They have three home wins in a row now it was 2:0 against serious play-off candidates Ramsgate ten days ago and last Saturday, they took another three points away from home, at Wealdstone (3:1) who don't lack motivation as they're very near the relegation zone. Their best striker Rook (who came in when the club sold Main to Wimbledon Main got injured very badly though after only a couple of weeks, but that's another story. Btw, the fans are happy nowadays because defender Beales should stay untill the end of the season he's next to leave Tonbridge obviously) recieved a golden boot for February he scores regularly for Tonbridge and I'd bet on his hattrick in this match if I could (and if the odds were good, of course). They will be without Watts, but they're playing against Leyton, so that's okay really (even the fans think that isn't a big deal ''Fraser can easily fill in for Kirk (Watts) on Saturday...''). In fact, if I was their manager, I'd rest some players for the Tuesday match against Heybridge maybe put them on the bench just in case (Tonbridge fans don't agree with me and that's in fact nice to hear). But, really, Leyton's goal-difference in the 14 matches (13 defeats and a lucky draw) is 8:52. And they're still without two standard players due to their suspensions (and who knows, maybe they have some injury problems too I have no idea, because they have no fans forum, no news section on their very poor official web-site, nothing), Thomas and Renner. I'm definately taking more than 1.80 for any asian handicap up to (-2) too, just to let you know. Cirencester are going down even their chairman admits it now. I felt sorry for Cirencester when I was reading his column a couple of days ago (''...I'm a believer that eventually clubs compete at the level they deserve and, in our case, that may well be the next step down...Don't get me wrong. I want us to stay up as much as the next man. But can we compete with a club like Corby, who suddenly sign nine players in three weeks?...'') and I'm sad I have to bet against them, but you know, maybe they will be happier in the league below, right? Cirencester are currently 21st, they have three home defeats in a row, they did manage to share points away at Clevedon last Saturday, but Clevedon are a mid-table team who won their last match back in 2007 they can't get relegated, they can't get to the play-off zone, no motivation left. In February, Cirencester played five matches and lost them all. They will be without midfielder Etheridge and strikers Hunt and Holgate (who scored a late equaliser at Clevedon last Saturday) who are all suspended, but they still have some injury problems too and defender Stanley and midfielder Else both left the club ten days ago. Halesowen are currently 3rd, but no other club played as much matches as them, so they need to keep winning if they want a play-off spot. They lost only three away matches this season (only Team Bath lost less), but they shared points eight times (won five). This time, even a draw would be the shock-result of the day in Southern Premier. They lost at home to mid-table team Banbury last Saturday (Banbury scored the winner in injury time, but the match itself was overshadowed after Banbury's Williams broke Halesowen's striker Paul's leg 'sickening badly') and I'm sure they'll do their best to make up for those lost points at Cirencester c'mon guys, do it for Paul. Before Banbury, they managed to share points away at league leaders King's Lynn and before that, they had three handicap home wins in a row (15th Merthyr, 9th Tiverton and 5th Bashley) and a draw at 4th Chippenham. Even without Paul, Halesowen should score at least a couple of goals here and that should be enough for three points of course they have a bunch of other good strikers (Halesowen scored 11 goals in the last four matches) and their defence simply can't be that bad to concede more than one goal here not at Cirencester and not after Banbury. (1.88 at StanJames, 1.86 at Stanleybet, 1.83 at Skybet and Bet365, 1.80 at Bwin and Bet-at-home...) FT 3:0 / 2:3 |
